PROVOST - Predicting seasonal climate
European scientists working on the PROVOST (Prediction of Climate Variations on Seasonal Timescales) project have succeeded in designing a computer model capable of providing reliable, global, regional and seasonal climate forecasts. PROVOST is a research project involving 11 European teams in climate modelling and prediction under the Community's Environment and Climate programme. It is coordinated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in Reading, UK, and managed by the European Commission (DG XII). The development of the PROVOST computer, and its success in predicting this year's "El Nino" event and its associated impacts over the globe, marks an important step forward towards being able to make seasonal predictions in Europe. This development could be of immense socio-economic value for a variety of reasons: crops could be better selected to maximize yield, stocking of fuel for next winter's heating could be optimized, and so on. The research carried out under PROVOST also responds to current concerns, reflected by the Kyoto Conference, about the increase in greenhouse gases and man's impact on the earth's future climate.