Descripción del proyecto
Evaluación de la vulnerabilidad de los fenómenos extremos del nivel del mar en calma
Las mareas, las marejadas y los fenómenos extremos del nivel del mar en calma (ESWL, por sus siglas en inglés) causados por una sola tormenta pueden tener efectos devastadores. Los análisis de riesgo son esenciales para identificar los tramos costeros vulnerables a un fenómeno ESWL. Sin embargo, se han realizado pocas investigaciones sobre la extensión espacial de las marejadas ciclónicas y los fenómenos ESWL. Además, las dependencias espaciales de las marejadas ciclónicas y los fenómenos ESWL no se han tenido en cuenta en las evaluaciones de riesgos costeros a gran escala. En el proyecto SpaDeRisks, financiado con fondos europeos, se investigarán las dependencias espaciales no estacionarias de fenómenos ESWL y las marejadas ciclónicas a escala mundial. Para ello, se desarrollará un marco que incluya parámetros de riesgo adicionales. Los hallazgos beneficiarán a la comunidad científica y a las partes interesadas involucradas en la gestión costera.
Objetivo
An extreme still water level (ESWL) event caused by a single storm can affect multiple populations, critical services, and industrial sectors, thus magnifying the impacts of the event. The identification of coastal stretches prone to be impacted simultaneously by an ESWL event is crucial for accurate risk analyses, development of efficient emergency plans, robust insurance schemes, and public adaptation funds. However, little attention has been paid to the study of the spatial extension of storm surges and ESWLs and the related studies were conducted under the assumption of stationarity. Also, the spatial dependencies of the storm surges and ESWLs have been systematically neglected in broad-scale coastal risk assessments. Through a combination of ESWL, surge, and socio-economic datasets, and by using advanced statistical and vulnerability assessment models, SpaDeRisks addresses these knowledge gaps. In this project, it will be (i) investigated, at a global scale, the non-stationarity spatial dependencies of ESWLs and storm surges; (ii) performed a novel framework to include the spatial dependencies into broad-scale coastal flood risk assessment and; (iii) assessed flood coastal impacts under present and future conditions. The new framework will provide additional risk metrics that cannot be derived from traditional broad-scale coastal risk analyses. Results from this project will be relevant for the scientific community and stakeholders involved in coastal management and thus, special attention will be devoted to dissemination and communication. The fellowship will contribute to the development of the researcher career through broadening the competencies in assessing coastal flooding, acquiring new knowledge in oceanographic sciences and advanced statistical techniques, and learning the use of the state-of-the-art models for vulnerability and impact assessment.
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
Régimen de financiación
MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)Coordinador
1081 HV Amsterdam
Países Bajos