Project description DEENESFRITPL Improved agent-based models of mosquito-transmitted diseases Mosquito-transmitted diseases affect millions of people worldwide every year. Despite advances in computational models, agent-based models are still often outperformed in disease forecasting by their idealised mathematical counterparts. Funded by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the SpatialStructure project will leverage Gaussian processes as a powerful statistical framework to significantly increase the sensitivity of agent-based models and thoroughly assess different model parameters. The proposed research could deepen our understanding of how spatial structures affect host–pathogen dynamics, thereby improving disease forecasting and the evaluation of proposed intervention strategies. Show the project objective Hide the project objective Objective Computational advancements and the development of powerful agent-based simulation frameworks have allowed us to model unprecedented realism in mosquito-transmitted diseases – a threat that millions of people face every year. While this enhanced realism has already provided important insights, agent-based models are still often outperformed in disease forecasting by their idealized mathematical counterparts. This might be caused by a lack in our fundamental understanding of how spatial dynamics need to be appropriately modeled. To date, in depth sensitivity analyses of complex agent-based models that would help to address this issue are hardly conducted, because these complex models are very parameter rich. Thus, the required model recalibration and comparisons are very runtime intensive. I introduce Gaussian processes as a powerful statistical framework that will significantly advance sensitivity analysis for agent-based models and allow us to assess the relative input importance of different model parameters in unprecedented detail. The proposed research could further deepen our understanding of how spatial structure affects host-pathogen dynamics and be a valuable contribution to the field of sensitivity analysis for agent-based models. I expect to find that spatial structure changes disease transmission potential profoundly and can cause spatial-specific model dynamics. I hope that my findings contribute to the improvement of disease forecasting and evaluation of proposed intervention strategies. Programme(s) H2020-EU.1.3. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Main Programme H2020-EU.1.3.2. - Nurturing excellence by means of cross-border and cross-sector mobility Topic(s) MSCA-IF-2020 - Individual Fellowships Call for proposal H2020-MSCA-IF-2020 See other projects for this call Funding Scheme MSCA-IF-GF - Global Fellowships Coordinator UNIVERSITAT WIEN Net EU contribution € 252 349,44 Address Universitatsring 1 1010 Wien Austria See on map Region Ostösterreich Wien Wien Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Other funding € 0,00 Partners (1) Sort alphabetically Sort by Net EU contribution Expand all Collapse all Partner Partner organisations contribute to the implementation of the action, but do not sign the Grant Agreement. CORNELL UNIVERSITY United States Net EU contribution € 0,00 Address Pine tree road 373 14850 Ithaca ny See on map Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Other funding € 165 265,92
