Project description
Improved agent-based models of mosquito-transmitted diseases
Mosquito-transmitted diseases affect millions of people worldwide every year. Despite advances in computational models, agent-based models are still often outperformed in disease forecasting by their idealised mathematical counterparts. Funded by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the SpatialStructure project will leverage Gaussian processes as a powerful statistical framework to significantly increase the sensitivity of agent-based models and thoroughly assess different model parameters. The proposed research could deepen our understanding of how spatial structures affect host–pathogen dynamics, thereby improving disease forecasting and the evaluation of proposed intervention strategies.
Objective
Computational advancements and the development of powerful agent-based simulation frameworks have allowed us to model unprecedented realism in mosquito-transmitted diseases – a threat that millions of people face every year. While this enhanced realism has already provided important insights, agent-based models are still often outperformed in disease forecasting by their idealized mathematical counterparts. This might be caused by a lack in our fundamental understanding of how spatial dynamics need to be appropriately modeled. To date, in depth sensitivity analyses of complex agent-based models that would help to address this issue are hardly conducted, because these complex models are very parameter rich. Thus, the required model recalibration and comparisons are very runtime intensive. I introduce Gaussian processes as a powerful statistical framework that will significantly advance sensitivity analysis for agent-based models and allow us to assess the relative input importance of different model parameters in unprecedented detail. The proposed research could further deepen our understanding of how spatial structure affects host-pathogen dynamics and be a valuable contribution to the field of sensitivity analysis for agent-based models. I expect to find that spatial structure changes disease transmission potential profoundly and can cause spatial-specific model dynamics. I hope that my findings contribute to the improvement of disease forecasting and evaluation of proposed intervention strategies.
Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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H2020-EU.1.3. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
MAIN PROGRAMME
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H2020-EU.1.3.2. - Nurturing excellence by means of cross-border and cross-sector mobility
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Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) H2020-MSCA-IF-2020
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
1010 WIEN
Austria
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.