Descripción del proyecto
Una mirada detallada a los cambios de la biodiversidad a través del tiempo y el espacio en múltiples escalas
La biodiversidad ha disminuido a un ritmo alarmante en los últimos decenios. Medir en detalle esta pérdida de biodiversidad es bastante complicado. La pérdida o ganancia de biodiversidad a nivel local puede ser muy diferente de los cambios que se producen en los países y continentes. El equipo del ambicioso proyecto BEAST, financiado por el Consejo Europeo de Investigación, cartografiará los cambios en la biodiversidad de aves, plantas y mariposas en Europa, los Estados Unidos y el planeta en un espacio y tiempo continuos, desde un espacio tan pequeño como un metro hasta a escala continental, durante los últimos cuarenta años. Un nuevo modelo de escala cruzada que aborda el cambio de la biodiversidad a través del espacio y el tiempo y de las lagunas de datos revelará por primera vez cómo cambian las múltiples facetas de la biodiversidad a través de las escalas.
Objetivo
We face an unprecedented threat from global alteration of nature and biodiversity, but we still lack rigorous estimates of how fast, where, and at which scales biodiversity changes. Studies report fragmented and seemingly contradictory results, suffer from mismatches in biodiversity metrics, mismatches in temporal and spatial grains, and are constrained by huge data gaps. Moreover, local loss and gain of biodiversity is decoupled from changes in countries or continents, with opposing directions at different scales being plausible. A quantitative synthesis that connects all this, and bridges the gaps, is needed. The objective of BEAST is to map and interpolate temporal biodiversity change in Europe, the US, and the world, across continuous space, time, and their grains, from locations as small as 1 m, to countries and continents, over the last ca 40 years, for birds, plants, and butterflies. To do this we will combine data from local time series with high-quality gridded atlas data from countries and continents. We will use a new cross-scale model to interpolate biodiversity change jointly across space and time, and across the data gaps. We will test if temporal change of diversity, distributions, and turnover can be estimated from: (i) static patterns of diversity and distributions, (ii) from data lacking temporal replication, (iii) from space-for-time substitution of spatial vs temporal species turnover, (iii) from spaceborne remotely sensed spectral diversity and turnover. These methods will enable integration of heterogeneous and messy biodiversity data, and they will improve estimates of change in data-poor regions of the global South. BEAST will deliver the first integrative statistical model revealing, for the first time, how multiple facets of biodiversity change across scales. It will show which regions, habitats, and biomes undergo the most pronounced change, which is critical for informed large-scale conservation policy.
Ámbito científico
Programa(s)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Régimen de financiación
HORIZON-AG - HORIZON Action Grant Budget-BasedInstitución de acogida
165 00 Praha
Chequia