Periodic Reporting for period 1 - SOS-WATER (Water Resources System Safe Operating Space in a Changing Climate and Society)
Période du rapport: 2022-10-01 au 2024-03-31
Water scarcity, water quality degradation and the loss of freshwater biodiversity are critical environmental challenges worldwide, driven primarily by significant increases in water withdrawals during the last century. In the coming decades, climate and societal changes are projected to exacerbate further these challenges in many regions of the world. As such, defining a safe operating space (SOS) for water resources in a changing climate and society is urgently needed to ensure a sufficient and reliable water supplies of a quality acceptable for human activity and natural ecosystems. However, defining the SOS for the entire water resources system at spatial scales relevant to decision-making and its projections into the future requires going beyond state-of-the-art water system modelling towards a holistic and participatory assessment framework that includes data gathering, integrated modelling, and working with relevant stakeholders. SOS-Water aims to create the foundation for this framework. It will co-create future scenarios and management pathways with stakeholders in five case studies in Europe and abroad. It will advance water system models and link them with impact models of ecosystem services and biodiversity to create a novel integrated water modelling system. This integrated water modelling system will be benchmarked against a wide range of state-of-the-art Earth Observations (EO) and will be used to calculate selected indicators covering all dimensions of water resources systems to ultimately design a multi-dimensional SOS of policies and water management pathways evaluated across a broad set of scenarios. The results of SOS-Water will help improve the understanding of water resource availability and streamline water planning and management at local to regional levels and beyond, such that the allocation of water among societies, economies, and ecosystems will be economically efficient, socially fair, and resilient to shocks.
During the first reporting period of the project, key stakeholders were successfully identified and engaged in all SOS-Water case studies (Danube, Jucar, Mekong, and Rhine basins). Initial workshops were held for the Danube and Mekong, while the Jucar and Rhine basins relied on the proceeding of workshops organised by other projects. Further workshops are envisioned in the next two years to receive stakeholders’ feedback and present the project results. Stakeholders’ engagement has been instrumental in developing future scenarios based on feasible combinations of climatic and socio-economic change projections that incorporate stakeholders’ visions and values. For the Mekong Delta, a survey for farmers to be carried out in the upcoming months will enhance the information gathered from workshops to define the SOS for water resources for the Mekong Delta.
Significant steps have been taken to improve the spatial resolution of the PCR-GLOBWB and CWatM water system models. These improvements include computer coding of solutions to handle finer scales, better representation of biophysical processes and human-water interactions, and refined model input data. Significant progress has also been made in biodiversity modelling, including the creation of species occurrence and physical parameter datasets for over 1400 fish species in the four case study basins, and the automation of the methods required to produce the results. In addition, the hydro-economic model for the Jucar basin was improved by incorporating crop yield response to water deficits and the impact of rising temperatures on crop water to estimate the requirements for the economic impact of irrigation demand.
An inventory of relevant EO products was completed, which served for identifying project-relevant EO data gaps. These gaps were addressed by improving or developing novel EO applications for the Integrated Water Modelling System (IWMS). An exhaustive list of water indicators was compiled and compared against the issues and characteristics of the different case studies. Using preliminary model outputs, indicators relevant to the Jucar case study were calculated and used for a preliminary SOS evaluation in the Jucar basin under 105 designed climate scenarios, and the impact of implementing an irrigation efficiency improvement was evaluated. More indicators, scenarios, and management pathways will be included for the final evaluation of the Jucar basin and the other case studies.
Significant steps have been taken to improve the spatial resolution of the PCR-GLOBWB and CWatM water system models. These improvements include computer coding of solutions to handle finer scales, better representation of biophysical processes and human-water interactions, and refined model input data. Significant progress has also been made in biodiversity modelling, including the creation of species occurrence and physical parameter datasets for over 1400 fish species in the four case study basins, and the automation of the methods required to produce the results. In addition, the hydro-economic model for the Jucar basin was improved by incorporating crop yield response to water deficits and the impact of rising temperatures on crop water to estimate the requirements for the economic impact of irrigation demand.
An inventory of relevant EO products was completed, which served for identifying project-relevant EO data gaps. These gaps were addressed by improving or developing novel EO applications for the Integrated Water Modelling System (IWMS). An exhaustive list of water indicators was compiled and compared against the issues and characteristics of the different case studies. Using preliminary model outputs, indicators relevant to the Jucar case study were calculated and used for a preliminary SOS evaluation in the Jucar basin under 105 designed climate scenarios, and the impact of implementing an irrigation efficiency improvement was evaluated. More indicators, scenarios, and management pathways will be included for the final evaluation of the Jucar basin and the other case studies.
The SOS-Water project has advanced the state-of-the-art, through an extensive engagement with stakeholders for the co-creation of water futures and the promotion of a narrative that goes beyond competing environmental and societal objectives and rather promotes synergies between these two objectives and discussion among stakeholders. Further progress is represented by the drafting of complex future water scenarios and pathways encompassing all relevant dimensions of the water system.
SOS-Water created a novel comprehensive database of aquatic species for the case studies basins, which will be publicly available, including the workflow and source code. Significant improvements were made to widely used, openly accessible Water System Models (WSMs) for a better representation of the water cycle and its mutual interaction with human activities. Modelling improvements are supported by novel EO applications developed for calibration and benchmarking.
Additionally, within the Danube case study, a permanent collaboration with other European and national projects was initiated to promote the exchange of modelling tools and results, enhance analytical capacity, and seek synergies that could bring benefits beyond the objectives of the single projects.
SOS-Water created a novel comprehensive database of aquatic species for the case studies basins, which will be publicly available, including the workflow and source code. Significant improvements were made to widely used, openly accessible Water System Models (WSMs) for a better representation of the water cycle and its mutual interaction with human activities. Modelling improvements are supported by novel EO applications developed for calibration and benchmarking.
Additionally, within the Danube case study, a permanent collaboration with other European and national projects was initiated to promote the exchange of modelling tools and results, enhance analytical capacity, and seek synergies that could bring benefits beyond the objectives of the single projects.