Periodic Reporting for period 2 - SOS-WATER (Water Resources System Safe Operating Space in a Changing Climate and Society)
Período documentado: 2024-04-01 hasta 2025-09-30
Water scarcity, water quality degradation and the loss of freshwater biodiversity are critical environmental challenges worldwide, driven primarily by significant increases in water withdrawals during the last century. In the coming decades, climate and societal changes are projected to further intensify these issues. As such, defining a safe operating space (SOS) for water resources in a changing climate and society is urgently needed to ensure a sufficient and reliable water supply of a quality acceptable for human activity and natural ecosystems. However, defining the SOS for the entire water resources system at spatial scales relevant to decision-making and projecting it into the future requires going beyond state-of-the-art water system modelling towards a holistic, participatory assessment framework that includes data gathering, integrated modelling, and engagement with relevant stakeholders. SOS-Water aims to create the foundation for this framework and test it in several case studies.
The project co-creates future scenarios and management pathways with stakeholders in three case studies in Europe and one in Vietnam. It improves water system models by integrating them with impact models focused on ecosystem services and biodiversity, resulting in an integrated water modelling system. This system undergoes benchmarking against a wide range of advanced Earth Observation applications and calculates selected indicators that cover all dimensions of water resource systems. The project aims to design a multi-dimensional system approach to policies and water management pathways, evaluated across various scenarios.
Findings from SOS-Water enhance understanding of water resource availability and streamline water planning and management at local and regional levels. This approach ensures that water allocation among societies, economies, and ecosystems achieves economic efficiency, social equity, and resilience to unexpected challenges.
The project co-creates future scenarios and management pathways with stakeholders in three case studies in Europe and one in Vietnam. It improves water system models by integrating them with impact models focused on ecosystem services and biodiversity, resulting in an integrated water modelling system. This system undergoes benchmarking against a wide range of advanced Earth Observation applications and calculates selected indicators that cover all dimensions of water resource systems. The project aims to design a multi-dimensional system approach to policies and water management pathways, evaluated across various scenarios.
Findings from SOS-Water enhance understanding of water resource availability and streamline water planning and management at local and regional levels. This approach ensures that water allocation among societies, economies, and ecosystems achieves economic efficiency, social equity, and resilience to unexpected challenges.
Key stakeholders were successfully identified and engaged in all SOS-Water case studies (Danube, Jucar, Mekong, Rhine). Initial workshops were held for the Danube and Mekong, while the Jucar and Rhine basins relied on the proceedings of workshops organised by other projects. A second round of workshops validated the identified indicators, and their thresholds used to define the Safe Operating Space (SOS) for water, and co-developed local adaptation pathways consistent with the global Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) narratives. In the Mekong Delta, a survey among farmers has been conducted to understand their perceptions of climate change and to provide behavioural data on vulnerability and resilience. Results obtained from implementing the adaptation pathways in the integrated water modeling system will be presented and discussed with the case-study stakeholders in the final workshops.
Significant steps have been taken to improve the spatial resolution of the PCR-GLOBWB and CWatM water system models, including computer coding of solutions to handle finer scales, better representation of biophysical processes and human-water interactions, and refined input data. Biodiversity modelling progressed substantially, with the creation of species occurrence and parameter datasets for over 1,400 fish species and automated workflows. The hydro-economic model for the Jucar basin was improved by incorporating crop yield responses to water deficits and the impact of rising temperatures on crop water use to estimate the economic impact of irrigation demand. Earth Observation products inventory and project-relevant data gaps was completed. These gaps were addressed by improving or developing novel Earth Observation applications used to benchmark and refine the integrated water modelling system. Additional refinements include further development and integration of data-driven reservoir operating schemes, increasing the detail of input data, expanding calibration stations, and benchmarking model component. Moreover, strengthened linkages between the water system and impact models have been further explored. Finally, the refined integrated modelling system have been used to simulate the historical reference period and baseline climate change projections (i.e. without implementing additional adaptation measures), and the results have been used to compute the indicators for a first SOS assessment for water in the case studies. The developed and validated integrated modelling systems will be used to simulate the effects of the adaptations and assess their impact on the SOS.
Significant steps have been taken to improve the spatial resolution of the PCR-GLOBWB and CWatM water system models, including computer coding of solutions to handle finer scales, better representation of biophysical processes and human-water interactions, and refined input data. Biodiversity modelling progressed substantially, with the creation of species occurrence and parameter datasets for over 1,400 fish species and automated workflows. The hydro-economic model for the Jucar basin was improved by incorporating crop yield responses to water deficits and the impact of rising temperatures on crop water use to estimate the economic impact of irrigation demand. Earth Observation products inventory and project-relevant data gaps was completed. These gaps were addressed by improving or developing novel Earth Observation applications used to benchmark and refine the integrated water modelling system. Additional refinements include further development and integration of data-driven reservoir operating schemes, increasing the detail of input data, expanding calibration stations, and benchmarking model component. Moreover, strengthened linkages between the water system and impact models have been further explored. Finally, the refined integrated modelling system have been used to simulate the historical reference period and baseline climate change projections (i.e. without implementing additional adaptation measures), and the results have been used to compute the indicators for a first SOS assessment for water in the case studies. The developed and validated integrated modelling systems will be used to simulate the effects of the adaptations and assess their impact on the SOS.
SOS-Water has advanced the state of the art through extensive stakeholder engagement and the promotion of a narrative that encourages synergies between environmental and societal objectives. Further progress is shown in the creation of complex future scenarios and pathways that encompass all dimensions of the water system. SOS-Water created a novel, comprehensive database of aquatic species for the case study basins, which will be publicly available, including the workflow and source code. Significant improvements were made to widely used, openly accessible Water System Models to represent better the water cycle and its interactions with human activities, supported by novel Earth Observation applications for calibration and benchmarking.
Collaboration with other European and national projects has been initiated and further strengthened to promote the exchange of modelling tools and results, enhance analytical capacity, and seek synergies that could bring benefits beyond the single projects objectives.
Further innovation is represented by the holistic design of adaptations, which span different water sectors in each case study and will be tested synergistically to assess their cumulative impact.
Collaboration with other European and national projects has been initiated and further strengthened to promote the exchange of modelling tools and results, enhance analytical capacity, and seek synergies that could bring benefits beyond the single projects objectives.
Further innovation is represented by the holistic design of adaptations, which span different water sectors in each case study and will be tested synergistically to assess their cumulative impact.