Key stakeholders were successfully identified and engaged in all SOS-Water case studies (Danube, Jucar, Mekong, Rhine). Initial workshops were held for the Danube and Mekong, while the Jucar and Rhine basins relied on the proceedings of workshops organised by other projects. A second round of workshops validated the identified indicators, and their thresholds used to define the Safe Operating Space (SOS) for water, and co-developed local adaptation pathways consistent with the global Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) narratives. In the Mekong Delta, a survey among farmers has been conducted to understand their perceptions of climate change and to provide behavioural data on vulnerability and resilience. Results obtained from implementing the adaptation pathways in the integrated water modeling system will be presented and discussed with the case-study stakeholders in the final workshops.
Significant steps have been taken to improve the spatial resolution of the PCR-GLOBWB and CWatM water system models, including computer coding of solutions to handle finer scales, better representation of biophysical processes and human-water interactions, and refined input data. Biodiversity modelling progressed substantially, with the creation of species occurrence and parameter datasets for over 1,400 fish species and automated workflows. The hydro-economic model for the Jucar basin was improved by incorporating crop yield responses to water deficits and the impact of rising temperatures on crop water use to estimate the economic impact of irrigation demand. Earth Observation products inventory and project-relevant data gaps was completed. These gaps were addressed by improving or developing novel Earth Observation applications used to benchmark and refine the integrated water modelling system. Additional refinements include further development and integration of data-driven reservoir operating schemes, increasing the detail of input data, expanding calibration stations, and benchmarking model component. Moreover, strengthened linkages between the water system and impact models have been further explored. Finally, the refined integrated modelling system have been used to simulate the historical reference period and baseline climate change projections (i.e. without implementing additional adaptation measures), and the results have been used to compute the indicators for a first SOS assessment for water in the case studies. The developed and validated integrated modelling systems will be used to simulate the effects of the adaptations and assess their impact on the SOS.
