Project description
Updating ocean models to predict rapid climate change
Ocean currents play key roles in regulating the distribution of heat on the Earth, yet there is still much to be learned about how they interact with the planet as a whole. The EU-funded EPOC project seeks to create a new framework for how the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) impacts the weather and climate. Besides transferring heat, the AMOC is associated with the ventilation of anthropogenic carbon. While existing models rely on very long timescales of thousands of years, EPOC will develop a model that can be used on human timescales of days and years. Doing so can help better explain the AMOC’s role in rapid climate change.
Objective
EPOC will generate a new conceptual framework for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, to understand how it functions in the Earth system and impacts weather and climate. The AMOC is a key component of the climate system, responsible for ocean heat and freshwater transport, associated with the ventilation of anthropogenic carbon, and anticipated to experience or drive climate tipping points. However, the link between ocean transport, ventilation and tipping points relies on the common conceptual view of the AMOC as a ‘great ocean conveyor’ which was developed to explain very long timescale (glacial-interglacial) fluctuations in climate. The conveyor-belt schematic conflates millennial timescales with human timescales (days to 100 years), leading to misconceptions by the observing and modelling communities, and misplaced expectations about the AMOC’s role in climate. EPOC will capitalise on new understanding about the AMOC variability and coherence from two decades of AMOC observations and advances in ocean observing technology and climate modelling, to develop new tools and approaches to quantify and explain past AMOC change and how its connectivity or lack thereof imprint on the Earth system. Through joined-up observational and model experiments, focussing on next generation high resolution coupled models, machine learning techniques and critical re-assessment of paleo proxies, EPOC will generate a new conceptual framework for the AMOC, its meridional connectivity, feedbacks and the relationship between ventilation and overturning on human timescales. This will lead to better predictions of the AMOC and related climate evolution, including the risk of rapid change.
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HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation ActionsCoordinator
20148 Hamburg
Germany
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Participants (8)
29280 Plouzane
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28359 Bremen
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80539 Munchen
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9296 Tromsoe
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27570 Bremerhaven
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5817 Bergen
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75794 Paris
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Legal entity other than a subcontractor which is affiliated or legally linked to a participant. The entity carries out work under the conditions laid down in the Grant Agreement, supplies goods or provides services for the action, but did not sign the Grant Agreement. A third party abides by the rules applicable to its related participant under the Grant Agreement with regard to eligibility of costs and control of expenditure.
31057 Toulouse Cedex
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Partners (12)
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A1C5X8 St John's NF
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02543 Woods Hole
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98195 9472 Seattle Wa
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33146 Coral Gables Miami
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EX1 3PB Exeter
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08540 Princeton
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78701 2982 Austin
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02881 Kingston
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SO14 3ZH Southampton
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RG6 6AH Reading
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WC1E 6BT London
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SO51 0HN Romsey Awbridge
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The organization defined itself as SME (small and medium-sized enterprise) at the time the Grant Agreement was signed.