Descrizione del progetto
Modelli migliorati per simulare il ghiaccio nell’Oceano Artico in estate
Con la rapida riduzione dei ghiacci nell’Oceano Artico dovuta ai cambiamenti climatici, sta aumentando la necessità di garantire previsioni accurate e tempestive sui ghiacci. Tuttavia, alcune difficoltà nell’elaborazione dei dati limitano la disponibilità delle osservazioni estive, il che determina una lacuna fondamentale a livello di osservazioni per la ricerca polare. Finanziato dal Consiglio europeo della ricerca, il progetto SI3D mira a colmare questa lacuna sfruttando l’apprendimento automatico profondo e la modellizzazione della risposta dell’altimetro radar. Integrando dati satellitari ricavati mediante lo svolgimento di diverse missioni dell’ESA, SI3D prevede di creare una registrazione ad alta precisione dello spessore del ghiaccio marino per un periodo di 15 anni, compresi i mesi estivi. Questo set di dati unico nel suo genere migliorerà la comprensione dei meccanismi di decadimento stagionale e le previsioni sul ghiaccio marino. I risultati del progetto potrebbero contribuire a trasformare la scienza del sistema artico incrementando l’efficienza della modellizzazione, delle previsioni, del bilancio di massa e degli studi biogeochimici durante i mesi critici di fusione estiva dei ghiacci.
Obiettivo
Arctic sea ice is diminishing with climate warming at a rate unmatched for 1000 years. As the receding ice pack changes rapidly and becomes increasingly mobile, the demand from academic and commercial stakeholders for accurate and timely sea ice forecasts is intensifying. Forecasting accuracy is enhanced with the assimilation of sea ice thickness observations from satellite altimetry. However, these data are currently unavailable during summer when they would be most valuable for stakeholders, owing to significant data processing challenges. This has been identified as a key observation gap for polar research by the IPCC.
SI/3D will address this gap, harnessing deep machine learning, modelling of the radar altimeter response, and dedicated field campaigns, to overcome the processing barriers. I will integrate satellite data from multiple ESA, EU-Copernicus, and NASA altimetry missions to produce the first 15+ year high-accuracy record of pan-Arctic sea ice thickness without interruptions in the summer. With this unique dataset, I can achieve the following goals. (1) To close the Arctic sea ice volume budget, pinpointing the mechanisms driving seasonal decay and breakup of the ice pack and the feedbacks of sea ice loss on Arctic temperatures. (2) To upgrade seasonal sea ice forecasts from state-of-the-art modelling systems by assimilating summer ice thickness observations.
SI/3D will create a new discipline of sea ice research by using altimetry to study the Arctic summer, which is risky. Having led the first published pilot research in this field, however, I am ideally placed to carry out the project and will leverage the expertise I have gained at three international Arctic research institutions to make it happen. On completion, this work will transform opportunities for Arctic system science, improving sea ice modelling, forecasting on timescales from weeks to years, mass budgeting, and biogeochemistry studies during the critical summer melting months.
Campo scientifico
- engineering and technologymechanical engineeringvehicle engineeringaerospace engineeringsatellite technology
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographyglaciology
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencesartificial intelligencemachine learning
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencesdata sciencedata processing
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencessoftwaresoftware applicationssimulation software
Parole chiave
Programma(i)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Argomento(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsIstituzione ospitante
9019 Tromso
Norvegia