Descripción del proyecto
Métodos estadísticos avanzados para la investigación de las loterías políticas
Recientemente se han utilizado loterías políticas para seleccionar ciudadanos al azar para que tomen decisiones sobre temas polarizadores, como la desafección, la reforma del aborto y el cambio climático. Estas loterías han permitido un mayor acceso a las minorías y han contribuido a estabilizar los conflictos políticos mediante sistemas deliberativos sólidos. Sin embargo, a pesar de su importancia potencial, estos experimentos naturales con loterías no se han investigado a fondo. Para colmar esta laguna, el equipo del proyecto POLLOT, financiado por el Concejo Europeo de Investigación (CEI), recopilará un conjunto de datos comparativos de estas loterías políticas, legisladores, actividades parlamentarias y oficinas en toda Europa. También analizará las decisiones tomadas por los grupos asignados al azar dentro de cada experimento natural, basándose en experimentos pasados durante la democratización en Europa y realizando nuevas loterías en asambleas ciudadanas en línea en la actualidad.
Objetivo
Political lotteries randomly select individuals to take a political decision. Recently, lotteries have put citizens together to find solutions to today’s contentious, polarizing issues, such as disaffection, abortion reform, and climate change. What explains their varied success? Lotteries equalise opportunity of access to all. Random chance can strengthen those otherwise in the minority. A wider variety of opinions can also improve debate and reduce polarization. The ideal, but unfeasible experiment would randomly vary group characteristics, assign real political power, and observe effects over time. Instead, this project draws lessons from past experiments during democratisation in Europe - whereby legislators were randomly assigned to groups within legislatures - and experiments with lotteries in online citizens’ assemblies today. Lotteries ensured that minorities participated in deliberation in small groups, and were assigned influential legislative tasks. These natural experiments with lotteries have never before been investigated using modern statistical methods, and their role in opening access to politics is almost entirely absent from empirical studies of democratisation. This project compiles a novel, comparative dataset of these political lotteries, legislators, parliamentary activity and offices from different European countries. Next, the decisions of randomly assigned groups will be analysed within each natural experiment. A theory of debate in randomly drawn groups reducing polarization will be verified by cross-national comparison across experimental contexts, and in a present-day experiment that allows controlled conditions. By opening access to minorities and contributing to strong, deliberative party and committee systems, lotteries stabilised political conflict. They have the potential to do so again today. The research will help inform evidence-based innovation of our representative democracies, as experiments with lotteries have already begun.
Ámbito científico
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Régimen de financiación
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsInstitución de acogida
75341 Paris
Francia