Descrizione del progetto
Metodi statistici avanzati per lo studio delle lotterie politiche
Recentemente, le lotterie politiche sono state utilizzate per selezionare in modo casuale i cittadini per prendere decisioni su questioni polarizzanti, come la disaffezione, la riforma dell’aborto e i cambiamenti climatici. Queste lotterie hanno consentito un maggiore accesso alle minoranze e hanno contribuito a stabilizzare i conflitti politici attraverso solidi sistemi deliberativi. Tuttavia, nonostante la loro potenziale importanza, questi esperimenti naturali con le lotterie non sono stati studiati a fondo. Per colmare questa lacuna, il progetto POLLOT, finanziato dal CER, compilerà una serie di dati comparativi di queste lotterie politiche, dei legislatori, delle attività e degli uffici parlamentari in tutta Europa. Analizzerà inoltre le decisioni prese dai gruppi assegnati a caso all’interno di ogni esperimento naturale, ispirandosi agli esperimenti del passato durante la democratizzazione in Europa e conducendo nuove lotterie nelle assemblee dei cittadini online di oggi.
Obiettivo
Political lotteries randomly select individuals to take a political decision. Recently, lotteries have put citizens together to find solutions to today’s contentious, polarizing issues, such as disaffection, abortion reform, and climate change. What explains their varied success? Lotteries equalise opportunity of access to all. Random chance can strengthen those otherwise in the minority. A wider variety of opinions can also improve debate and reduce polarization. The ideal, but unfeasible experiment would randomly vary group characteristics, assign real political power, and observe effects over time. Instead, this project draws lessons from past experiments during democratisation in Europe - whereby legislators were randomly assigned to groups within legislatures - and experiments with lotteries in online citizens’ assemblies today. Lotteries ensured that minorities participated in deliberation in small groups, and were assigned influential legislative tasks. These natural experiments with lotteries have never before been investigated using modern statistical methods, and their role in opening access to politics is almost entirely absent from empirical studies of democratisation. This project compiles a novel, comparative dataset of these political lotteries, legislators, parliamentary activity and offices from different European countries. Next, the decisions of randomly assigned groups will be analysed within each natural experiment. A theory of debate in randomly drawn groups reducing polarization will be verified by cross-national comparison across experimental contexts, and in a present-day experiment that allows controlled conditions. By opening access to minorities and contributing to strong, deliberative party and committee systems, lotteries stabilised political conflict. They have the potential to do so again today. The research will help inform evidence-based innovation of our representative democracies, as experiments with lotteries have already begun.
Campo scientifico
Parole chiave
Programma(i)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Argomento(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsIstituzione ospitante
75341 Paris
Francia