Optimal High Resolution Earth System Models for Exploring Future Climate Changes

Información del proyecto

OptimESM

Identificador del acuerdo de subvención: 101081193

DOI

10.3030/101081193

Fecha de la firma de la CE 22 Septiembre 2022

Fecha de inicio 1 Enero 2023

Fecha de finalización 31 Diciembre 2027

Financiado con arreglo a

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Coste total

€ 7 691 803,96

Aportación de la UE

€ 7 691 803,96

Coordinado por

SVERIGES METEOROLOGISKA OCH HYDROLOGISKA INSTITUT
Sweden

CORDIS proporciona enlaces a los documentos públicos y las publicaciones de los proyectos de los programas marco HORIZONTE.

Los enlaces a los documentos y las publicaciones de los proyectos del Séptimo Programa Marco, así como los enlaces a algunos tipos de resultados específicos, como conjuntos de datos y «software», se obtienen dinámicamente de OpenAIRE .

Resultado final

Documents, reports (6)

Early warnings for abrupt changes and tipping pointss

Report on generic and system specific early warnings for abrupt change and tipping points (task 5.1).

First update of the communication, dissemination and exploitation plan

First impact evaluation and update of the communication, dissemination and exploitation plan (tasks 7.1, 7.2, 7.4, 7.5, 7.6, 7.7)

Communication, dissemination and exploitation plan

Communication, dissemination and exploitation plan prepared and distributed (tasks 7.1 and 7.7)

Intermediate Data Management Plan

Intermediate Data Management Plan prepared (task 8.3)

Terms of reference for OptimESM boards

Terms of reference for the EB, MB, EAB and ECS prepared and distributed (task 8.1)

Future scenario description

Report on future emission and land use scenarios including sensitivity analysis, gridding, and extensions (tasks 2.1, 2.2, 2.3)

Data Management Plan (1)

Data Management Plan

First version of Data Management Plan prepared (task 8.3)

Publicaciones

Peer reviewed articles (29)

emIAM v1.0: an emulator for Integrated Assessment Models using marginal abatement cost curves

Autores: W. Xiong; W. Xiong; K. Tanaka; K. Tanaka; P. Ciais; D. J. A. Johansson; M. Lehtveer
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición 18, 2023, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-18-1575-2025

The impact of a weakened AMOC on European heatwaves

Autores: Virna L Meccia, Claudia Simolo, Katinka Bellomo, Susanna Corti
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 20, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADA3E7

Enhanced risk of hot extremes revealed by observation-constrained model projections

Autores: Claudia Simolo; Susanna Corti
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición 6(165), 2025, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-025-02133-3

Testing GWP* to quantify non-CO2 contributions in the carbon budget framework in overshoot scenarios

Autores: Mastropierro, Matteo; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Melnikova, Irina; Ciais, Philippe
Publicado en: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Edición 8,101, 2025, ISSN 2397-3722
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S41612-025-00980-7

Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections

Autores: Sybren Drijfhout, Joran R Angevaare, Jennifer Mecking, René M van Westen, Stefan Rahmstorf
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 20, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADFA3B

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Autores: Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Mess
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, 2025, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-16-1611-2025

Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization

Autores: Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, Bryan M. Spears
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 15, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-15-1179-2024

A Global Analysis of Historical and Future Changes in Mediterranean Climate‐Type Regions

Autores: Diego Urdiales‐Flores; George Zittis; Panos Hadjinicolaou; Annalisa Cherchi; Andrea Alessandri; Nadav Peleg; Jos Lelieveld
Publicado en: International Journal of Climatology, Edición 44(15), 2024, ISSN 1097-0088
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.8655

Noise-shaped hysteresis cycles of the AMOC under increasing CO2 forcing

Autores: Matteo Cini; Giuseppe Zappa; Francesco Ragone; Susanna Corti
Publicado en: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Edición 35, 2025, ISSN 1089-7682
Editor: AIP Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0241503

No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability

Autores: Laibao Liu; Rosie A. Fisher; Hervé Douville; Ryan S. Padrón; Alexis Berg; Jiafu Mao; Andrea Alessandri; Hyungjun Kim; Sonia I. Seneviratne
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.3929/ETHZ-B-000680809

Pan‐European High‐Resolution Downscaling Using Deep Learning

Autores: Ramón Fuentes–Franco, Kristofer Krus, Mikhail Ivanov, Torben Koenigk, Fuxing Wang and Aitor Aldama‐Campino
Publicado en: JGR Machine Learning and Computation, 2025, ISSN 2993-5210
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2025JH000630

Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs?

Autores: S. Loriani; A. Bartsch; E. Calamita; J. F. Donges; S. Hebden; M. Hirota; A. Landolfi; T. Nagler; B. Sakschewski; A. Staal; J. Verbesselt; R. Winkelmann; R. Wood; N. Wunderling
Publicado en: Surveys in Geophysics, Edición 46, 327–374, 2025, ISSN 1573-0956
Editor: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/S10712-024-09866-4

Carbon cycle and climate feedback under CO₂ and non-CO₂ overshoot pathways

Autores: I. Melnikova; I. Melnikova; P. Ciais; K. Tanaka; K. Tanaka; H. Shiogama; K. Tachiiri; K. Tachiiri; T. Yokohata; O. Boucher
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/esd-16-257-2025

Physical inconsistencies in the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus in simple climate models

Autores: Séférian, Roland; Bossy, Thomas; Gasser, Thomas; Nichols, Zebedee; Dorheim, Kalyn; Su, Xuanming; Tsutsui, Junichi; Santana-Falcón, Yeray
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición 5, 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-024-01464-X

Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep-ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3

Autores: Federico Fabiano, Paolo Davini, Virna L. Meccia, Giuseppe Zappa, Alessio Bellucci, Valerio Lembo, Katinka Bellomo, and Susanna Corti
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 15, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-527-2024

Deep Learning for Bias‐Correcting CMIP6‐Class Earth System Models

Autores: Philipp Hess; Stefan Lange; Christof Schötz; Niklas Boers
Publicado en: Earth's Future, Edición 11, 10, 2023, ISSN 2328-4277
Editor: John Wiley & Sons
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2301.01253

Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: Why does the 'Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability' work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6?

Autores: M. S. Williamson; M. S. Williamson; P. M. Cox; P. M. Cox; C. Huntingford; F. J. M. M. Nijsse; F. J. M. M. Nijsse
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 15(4), 2023, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Göttingen-Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-829-2024

Estimating the gain of increasing the ensemble size from analytical considerations

Autores: Bo Christiansen
Publicado en: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2024, ISSN 1477-870X
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/QJ.4815

Cooler Arctic surface temperatures simulated by climate models are closer to satellite-based data than the ERA5 reanalysis

Autores: Tian Tian, Shuting Yang, Jacob Lorentsen Høyer, Pia Nielsen-Englyst & Suman Singh
Publicado en: Communications earth & environment, Edición 5, 111, 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01276-z.

Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review

Autores: N. Wunderling; N. Wunderling; N. Wunderling; A. S. von der Heydt; A. S. von der Heydt; Y. Aksenov; S. Barker; R. Bastiaansen; R. Bastiaansen; V. Brovkin; M. Brunetti; V. Couplet; T. Kleinen; C. H. Lear; J. Lohmann; R. M. Roman-Cuesta; S. Sinet; S. Sinet; D. Swingedouw; R. Winkelmann; R. Winkelmann; P. Anand; J. Barichivich; J. Barichivich; S. Bathiany; S. Bathiany; M. Baudena; M. Baudena; M. Baudena; J. T. Bruun; C. M. Chiessi; H. K. Coxall; H. K. Coxall; D. Docquier; J. F. Donges; J. F. Donges; J. F. Donges; S. K. J. Falkena; A. K. Klose; A. K. Klose; D. Obura; J. Rocha; J. Rocha; S. Rynders; N. J. Steinert; N. J. Steinert; M. Willeit
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 15(1), 2023, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-15-41-2024

Local cooling and drying induced by Himalayan glaciers under global warming

Autores: Franco Salerno, Nicolas Guyennon, Kun Yang, Thomas E. Shaw, Changgui Lin, Nicola Colombo, Emanuele Romano, Stephan Gruber, Tobias Bolch, Andrea Alessandri, Paolo Cristofanelli, Davide Putero, Guglielmina Diolaiuti, Gianni Tartari, Gianpietro Verza, Sudeep
Publicado en: Nature Geoscience, Edición 16, 2023, ISSN 1752-0908
Editor: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01331-y

Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity

Autores: Swaminathan, Ranjini; Schewe, Jacob; Walton, Jeremy; Zimmermann, Klaus; Jones, Colin G.; Betts, Richard A.; Burton, Chantelle; Jones, Chris D.; Mengel, Matthias; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Turner, Andrew G.; Weigel, Katja
Publicado en: Earth's Future, Edición 12(12), 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Editor: John Wiley & Sons
DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004901

Planetary boundaries under a land-based climate change mitigation scenario with a food demand transformation: a modelling study

Autores: Felicitas D Beier, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Jens Heinke, Gabriel Abrahao, Patrick von Jeetze, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Michael Crawford, Florian Humpenöder, Leon Merfort, Isabelle Weindl, Mario Herrero, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Johan Rockström, Marina Sundiang, Sofie te Wierik, Anna Norberg, David Klein, Christoph Müller, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp
Publicado en: The Lancet Planetary Health, 2025, ISSN 2542-5196
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00087-7

Abrupt Changes in the Timing and Magnitude of the North Atlantic Bloom Over the 21st Century

Autores: Kelly, Stephen; Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Jebri, Fatma; Oliver, Sophy; Srokosz, Meric
Publicado en: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Edición 130, 2024, ISSN 2169-9291
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2024JC022284

Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy

Autores: C. G. Jones; F. Adloff; B. B. B. Booth; P. M. Cox; V. Eyring; V. Eyring; P. Friedlingstein; P. Friedlingstein; K. Frieler; H. T. Hewitt; H. A. Jeffery; S. Joussaume; T. Koenigk; T. Koenigk; B. N. Lawrence; E. O'Rourke; M. J. Roberts; B. M. Sanderson; R. Séférian; S. Somot; P. L. Vidale; D. van Vuuren; D. van Vuuren; M. Acosta; M. Bentsen; M. Bentsen; R. Bernardello; R. Betts; R. Betts; E. Blockley; J. Boé; T. Bracegirdle; P. Braconnot; V. Brovkin; C. Buontempo; F. Doblas-Reyes; F. Doblas-Reyes; M. Donat; I. Epicoco; I. Epicoco; P. Falloon; P. Falloon; S. Fiore; T. Frölicher; T. Frölicher; N. S. Fučkar; N. S. Fučkar; M. J. Gidden; H. F. Goessling; R. G. Graversen; S. Gualdi; J. M. Gutiérrez; T. Ilyina; T. Ilyina; T. Ilyina; D. Jacob; C. D. Jones; C. D. Jones; M. Juckes; M. Juckes; E. Kendon; E. Kendon; E. Kjellström; R. Knutti; J. Lowe; J. Lowe; M. Mizielinski; P. Nassisi; M. Obersteiner; P. Regnier; R. Roehrig; D. Salas y Mélia; C.-F. Schleussner; M. Schulz; E. Scoccimarro; L. Terray; H. Thiemann; R. A. Wood; S. Yang; S. Zaehle
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 15(5), 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Göttingen Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-15-1319-2024

Brief communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models

Autores: E. Lambert; C. Burgard; C. Burgard
Publicado en: The Cryosphere, Edición 19, 2024, ISSN 1994-0424
Editor: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-2024-2358

Simulating AMOC tipping driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm

Autores: Cini M, Zappa G, Ragone F, and Corti S
Publicado en: npj Clim Atmos Sci, Edición 7, 31, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00568-7

Recent and near-term future changes in impacts-relevant seasonal hydroclimate in the world's Mediterranean climate regions

Autores: Richard Seager; Yutian Wu; Annalisa Cherchi; Isla R. Simpson; Timothy J. Osborn; Yochanan Kushnir; Jelena Lukovic; Haibo Liu; Jennifer Nakamura
Publicado en: International Journal of Climatology, Edición 44(11), 2024, ISSN 1097-0088
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.7916/WXP4-CK45/DOWNLOAD

Separating CO2 emission from removal targets comes with limited cost impacts

Autores: Anne Merfort, Jessica Strefler, Gabriel Abrahão, Nico Bauer, Tabea Dorndorf, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Leon Merfort, Ottmar Edenhofer
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 16, 2025, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-025-60606-7