Optimal High Resolution Earth System Models for Exploring Future Climate Changes

Informazioni relative al progetto

OptimESM

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: 101081193

DOI

10.3030/101081193

Data della firma CE 22 Settembre 2022

Data di avvio 1 Gennaio 2023

Data di completamento 31 Dicembre 2027

Finanziato da

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Costo totale

€ 7 691 803,96

Contributo UE

€ 7 691 803,96

Coordinato da

SVERIGES METEOROLOGISKA OCH HYDROLOGISKA INSTITUT
Sweden

CORDIS fornisce collegamenti ai risultati finali pubblici e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti ORIZZONTE.

I link ai risultati e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti del 7° PQ, così come i link ad alcuni tipi di risultati specifici come dataset e software, sono recuperati dinamicamente da .OpenAIRE .

Risultati finali

Documents, reports (6)

Early warnings for abrupt changes and tipping pointss

Report on generic and system specific early warnings for abrupt change and tipping points (task 5.1).

First update of the communication, dissemination and exploitation plan

First impact evaluation and update of the communication, dissemination and exploitation plan (tasks 7.1, 7.2, 7.4, 7.5, 7.6, 7.7)

Communication, dissemination and exploitation plan

Communication, dissemination and exploitation plan prepared and distributed (tasks 7.1 and 7.7)

Intermediate Data Management Plan

Intermediate Data Management Plan prepared (task 8.3)

Terms of reference for OptimESM boards

Terms of reference for the EB, MB, EAB and ECS prepared and distributed (task 8.1)

Future scenario description

Report on future emission and land use scenarios including sensitivity analysis, gridding, and extensions (tasks 2.1, 2.2, 2.3)

Data Management Plan (1)

Data Management Plan

First version of Data Management Plan prepared (task 8.3)

Pubblicazioni

Peer reviewed articles (29)

emIAM v1.0: an emulator for Integrated Assessment Models using marginal abatement cost curves

Autori: W. Xiong; W. Xiong; K. Tanaka; K. Tanaka; P. Ciais; D. J. A. Johansson; M. Lehtveer
Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Numero 18, 2023, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-18-1575-2025

The impact of a weakened AMOC on European heatwaves

Autori: Virna L Meccia, Claudia Simolo, Katinka Bellomo, Susanna Corti
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 20, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADA3E7

Enhanced risk of hot extremes revealed by observation-constrained model projections

Autori: Claudia Simolo; Susanna Corti
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Numero 6(165), 2025, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-025-02133-3

Testing GWP* to quantify non-CO2 contributions in the carbon budget framework in overshoot scenarios

Autori: Mastropierro, Matteo; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Melnikova, Irina; Ciais, Philippe
Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numero 8,101, 2025, ISSN 2397-3722
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S41612-025-00980-7

Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections

Autori: Sybren Drijfhout, Joran R Angevaare, Jennifer Mecking, René M van Westen, Stefan Rahmstorf
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 20, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADFA3B

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Autori: Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Mess
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, 2025, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-16-1611-2025

Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization

Autori: Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, Bryan M. Spears
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 15, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-15-1179-2024

A Global Analysis of Historical and Future Changes in Mediterranean Climate‐Type Regions

Autori: Diego Urdiales‐Flores; George Zittis; Panos Hadjinicolaou; Annalisa Cherchi; Andrea Alessandri; Nadav Peleg; Jos Lelieveld
Pubblicato in: International Journal of Climatology, Numero 44(15), 2024, ISSN 1097-0088
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.8655

Noise-shaped hysteresis cycles of the AMOC under increasing CO2 forcing

Autori: Matteo Cini; Giuseppe Zappa; Francesco Ragone; Susanna Corti
Pubblicato in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Numero 35, 2025, ISSN 1089-7682
Editore: AIP Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0241503

No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability

Autori: Laibao Liu; Rosie A. Fisher; Hervé Douville; Ryan S. Padrón; Alexis Berg; Jiafu Mao; Andrea Alessandri; Hyungjun Kim; Sonia I. Seneviratne
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.3929/ETHZ-B-000680809

Pan‐European High‐Resolution Downscaling Using Deep Learning

Autori: Ramón Fuentes–Franco, Kristofer Krus, Mikhail Ivanov, Torben Koenigk, Fuxing Wang and Aitor Aldama‐Campino
Pubblicato in: JGR Machine Learning and Computation, 2025, ISSN 2993-5210
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2025JH000630

Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs?

Autori: S. Loriani; A. Bartsch; E. Calamita; J. F. Donges; S. Hebden; M. Hirota; A. Landolfi; T. Nagler; B. Sakschewski; A. Staal; J. Verbesselt; R. Winkelmann; R. Wood; N. Wunderling
Pubblicato in: Surveys in Geophysics, Numero 46, 327–374, 2025, ISSN 1573-0956
Editore: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/S10712-024-09866-4

Carbon cycle and climate feedback under CO₂ and non-CO₂ overshoot pathways

Autori: I. Melnikova; I. Melnikova; P. Ciais; K. Tanaka; K. Tanaka; H. Shiogama; K. Tachiiri; K. Tachiiri; T. Yokohata; O. Boucher
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/esd-16-257-2025

Physical inconsistencies in the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus in simple climate models

Autori: Séférian, Roland; Bossy, Thomas; Gasser, Thomas; Nichols, Zebedee; Dorheim, Kalyn; Su, Xuanming; Tsutsui, Junichi; Santana-Falcón, Yeray
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Numero 5, 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-024-01464-X

Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep-ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3

Autori: Federico Fabiano, Paolo Davini, Virna L. Meccia, Giuseppe Zappa, Alessio Bellucci, Valerio Lembo, Katinka Bellomo, and Susanna Corti
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 15, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-527-2024

Deep Learning for Bias‐Correcting CMIP6‐Class Earth System Models

Autori: Philipp Hess; Stefan Lange; Christof Schötz; Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Earth's Future, Numero 11, 10, 2023, ISSN 2328-4277
Editore: John Wiley & Sons
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2301.01253

Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: Why does the 'Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability' work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6?

Autori: M. S. Williamson; M. S. Williamson; P. M. Cox; P. M. Cox; C. Huntingford; F. J. M. M. Nijsse; F. J. M. M. Nijsse
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 15(4), 2023, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Göttingen-Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-829-2024

Estimating the gain of increasing the ensemble size from analytical considerations

Autori: Bo Christiansen
Pubblicato in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2024, ISSN 1477-870X
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/QJ.4815

Cooler Arctic surface temperatures simulated by climate models are closer to satellite-based data than the ERA5 reanalysis

Autori: Tian Tian, Shuting Yang, Jacob Lorentsen Høyer, Pia Nielsen-Englyst & Suman Singh
Pubblicato in: Communications earth & environment, Numero 5, 111, 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01276-z.

Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review

Autori: N. Wunderling; N. Wunderling; N. Wunderling; A. S. von der Heydt; A. S. von der Heydt; Y. Aksenov; S. Barker; R. Bastiaansen; R. Bastiaansen; V. Brovkin; M. Brunetti; V. Couplet; T. Kleinen; C. H. Lear; J. Lohmann; R. M. Roman-Cuesta; S. Sinet; S. Sinet; D. Swingedouw; R. Winkelmann; R. Winkelmann; P. Anand; J. Barichivich; J. Barichivich; S. Bathiany; S. Bathiany; M. Baudena; M. Baudena; M. Baudena; J. T. Bruun; C. M. Chiessi; H. K. Coxall; H. K. Coxall; D. Docquier; J. F. Donges; J. F. Donges; J. F. Donges; S. K. J. Falkena; A. K. Klose; A. K. Klose; D. Obura; J. Rocha; J. Rocha; S. Rynders; N. J. Steinert; N. J. Steinert; M. Willeit
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 15(1), 2023, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-15-41-2024

Local cooling and drying induced by Himalayan glaciers under global warming

Autori: Franco Salerno, Nicolas Guyennon, Kun Yang, Thomas E. Shaw, Changgui Lin, Nicola Colombo, Emanuele Romano, Stephan Gruber, Tobias Bolch, Andrea Alessandri, Paolo Cristofanelli, Davide Putero, Guglielmina Diolaiuti, Gianni Tartari, Gianpietro Verza, Sudeep
Pubblicato in: Nature Geoscience, Numero 16, 2023, ISSN 1752-0908
Editore: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01331-y

Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity

Autori: Swaminathan, Ranjini; Schewe, Jacob; Walton, Jeremy; Zimmermann, Klaus; Jones, Colin G.; Betts, Richard A.; Burton, Chantelle; Jones, Chris D.; Mengel, Matthias; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Turner, Andrew G.; Weigel, Katja
Pubblicato in: Earth's Future, Numero 12(12), 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Editore: John Wiley & Sons
DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004901

Planetary boundaries under a land-based climate change mitigation scenario with a food demand transformation: a modelling study

Autori: Felicitas D Beier, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Jens Heinke, Gabriel Abrahao, Patrick von Jeetze, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Michael Crawford, Florian Humpenöder, Leon Merfort, Isabelle Weindl, Mario Herrero, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Johan Rockström, Marina Sundiang, Sofie te Wierik, Anna Norberg, David Klein, Christoph Müller, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp
Pubblicato in: The Lancet Planetary Health, 2025, ISSN 2542-5196
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00087-7

Abrupt Changes in the Timing and Magnitude of the North Atlantic Bloom Over the 21st Century

Autori: Kelly, Stephen; Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Jebri, Fatma; Oliver, Sophy; Srokosz, Meric
Pubblicato in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Numero 130, 2024, ISSN 2169-9291
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2024JC022284

Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy

Autori: C. G. Jones; F. Adloff; B. B. B. Booth; P. M. Cox; V. Eyring; V. Eyring; P. Friedlingstein; P. Friedlingstein; K. Frieler; H. T. Hewitt; H. A. Jeffery; S. Joussaume; T. Koenigk; T. Koenigk; B. N. Lawrence; E. O'Rourke; M. J. Roberts; B. M. Sanderson; R. Séférian; S. Somot; P. L. Vidale; D. van Vuuren; D. van Vuuren; M. Acosta; M. Bentsen; M. Bentsen; R. Bernardello; R. Betts; R. Betts; E. Blockley; J. Boé; T. Bracegirdle; P. Braconnot; V. Brovkin; C. Buontempo; F. Doblas-Reyes; F. Doblas-Reyes; M. Donat; I. Epicoco; I. Epicoco; P. Falloon; P. Falloon; S. Fiore; T. Frölicher; T. Frölicher; N. S. Fučkar; N. S. Fučkar; M. J. Gidden; H. F. Goessling; R. G. Graversen; S. Gualdi; J. M. Gutiérrez; T. Ilyina; T. Ilyina; T. Ilyina; D. Jacob; C. D. Jones; C. D. Jones; M. Juckes; M. Juckes; E. Kendon; E. Kendon; E. Kjellström; R. Knutti; J. Lowe; J. Lowe; M. Mizielinski; P. Nassisi; M. Obersteiner; P. Regnier; R. Roehrig; D. Salas y Mélia; C.-F. Schleussner; M. Schulz; E. Scoccimarro; L. Terray; H. Thiemann; R. A. Wood; S. Yang; S. Zaehle
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 15(5), 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-15-1319-2024

Brief communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models

Autori: E. Lambert; C. Burgard; C. Burgard
Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere, Numero 19, 2024, ISSN 1994-0424
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-2024-2358

Simulating AMOC tipping driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm

Autori: Cini M, Zappa G, Ragone F, and Corti S
Pubblicato in: npj Clim Atmos Sci, Numero 7, 31, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00568-7

Recent and near-term future changes in impacts-relevant seasonal hydroclimate in the world's Mediterranean climate regions

Autori: Richard Seager; Yutian Wu; Annalisa Cherchi; Isla R. Simpson; Timothy J. Osborn; Yochanan Kushnir; Jelena Lukovic; Haibo Liu; Jennifer Nakamura
Pubblicato in: International Journal of Climatology, Numero 44(11), 2024, ISSN 1097-0088
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.7916/WXP4-CK45/DOWNLOAD

Separating CO2 emission from removal targets comes with limited cost impacts

Autori: Anne Merfort, Jessica Strefler, Gabriel Abrahão, Nico Bauer, Tabea Dorndorf, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Leon Merfort, Ottmar Edenhofer
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 16, 2025, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-025-60606-7