WorldTrans - TRANSPARENT ASSESSMENTS FOR REAL PEOPLE

Informations projet

WorldTrans

N° de convention de subvention: 101081661

DOI

10.3030/101081661

Date de signature de la CE 4 Octobre 2022

Date de début 1 Decembre 2022

Date de fin 30 Novembre 2026

Financé au titre de

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Coût total

€ 5 231 340,00

Contribution de l’UE

€ 5 231 340,00

Coordonné par

METEOROLOGISK INSTITUTT
Norway

CORDIS fournit des liens vers les livrables publics et les publications des projets HORIZON.

Les liens vers les livrables et les publications des projets du 7e PC, ainsi que les liens vers certains types de résultats spécifiques tels que les jeux de données et les logiciels, sont récupérés dynamiquement sur OpenAIRE .

Livrables

Documents, reports (8)

2nd Annual workshop report

This deliverable is the report from the second annual workshop. The report will include key results from workshop, assessment of milestone and needs for adjustment of project plan, action list towards next workshop (Milestone 4), key messages for dissemination and communication and so forth.Supported by Task 5.1.

Report on needs for adjustments of Key Project Results

The Key Project Results (KPRs) are formulated to assist the management of the project. If they are not obtained, some part of the project is likely to fail. As the project proceeds, the KPRs may become irrelevant and in need of replacement. This evaluation will be done in Task 5.2. This delivery is a report of the first KPR assessment.

Project Manual

A project manual that guides the project participants with respect to the standards that the project plans to adhere to, including reducing the project's carbon footprint, ensuring an open, caring and inclusive work environment and enhancing the non-scientific impacts of the project. This deliverable supports Task 5.1.

Scientific synthesis: fitness for purpose of current IAM approaches

Scientific synthesis: fitness for purpose of current IAM approaches (including inter-model comparison from users’ perspectives):This deliverable is the publicly disseminated output of Task 4.1, reporting findings of questionnaire- and interview-based ‘market research’ on IAM users, with particular focus on target users in governance contexts beyond national climate policy-making (exploring what they use IAMs for and why, clarifying issues such as trust, confidence and uncertainties in relation to model scope / boundaries). To better understand the suitability, strengths and limitations of current IAM approaches in satisfying the information needs and requests of their users, this deliverable also consists of a structured appraisal of current approaches, including selected case studies relevant to the human world / biophysical Earth IAM developments in WP1 and WP2. This deliverable informs Task 4.4 and the workshops convened in WP5, and is relevant to D3.3’s reporting of simple IAMs and their uncertainties.

1st Annual workshop report

This deliverable is the report from the first annual workshop. The report will include key results from workshop, assessment of milestone and needs for adjustment of project plan, action list towards next workshop (Milestone 3), key messages for dissemination and communication and so forth.Supported by Task 5.1.

Report on learning and training: internal summer school

To promote mutual learning, especially for project participants who are new to system dynamics and/or IAMs, we will design an educational module for climate system science. In the first workshop we will pilot the co-development of a short, graduate-targeted educational module in interdisciplinary climate science, using a intensive summer-school format. It will use information about IAM contexts, contents and approaches gathered in D4.1, together with the initial core content gathered via Task 4.2 and Milestone 2 and the rough-draft version of FRIDA (D3.1) as the preliminary training materials. The internal summer school will also focus on developing and testing the pedagogy and assessment aspects for consistency and compliance with university and ECTS requirements.This deliverable supports Task 4.3.

The WorldTrans Dissemination, Exploitation and Communication Plan V1

In anticipation of the stakeholder assessment delivered from Task 4.1 we will develop the first version of the DE&C plan with particular focus on identifying key messages for communication, drafting an annual plan of activities/conferences/events of particular, strategic importance in order to reach out to target groups, identifying meaningful KPIs to monitor and evaluate the impact of communcation/dissemination actions. Supports task 5.4

Report on learning and training: educational materials

This deliverable, which supports Task 4.3, consists of a collation of interdisciplinary educational materials (e.g. texts, videos, stylized ‘toy’ models and web interfaces) that support the understanding of system dynamics IAM-related models. Aimed at graduate-level education with a co-development and open learning ethos, the core set will be made available via ItsLearning (an online education management platform, used at Stockholm University) and other generic channels. An initial set of course materials drawn from partners’ existing teaching & learning activities will be gathered at the project inception. These core resources will be extended and curated iteratively through engagement with IAM modelers in Task 4.2 (on IAM methodology, structuring, idealization, critique, etc.), and with project-wide discussion during the Milestone 2 workshop. This deliverable is an essential input for Task 4.3.

Data Management Plan (2)

WordTrans Data Management Plan V1

The data used and produced in WorldTrans consists of a wide variety of disciplines, formats, conventions and size requirements. For the first version of the DM plan (this deliverable) we will have mapped out and formalized user requirement to ensure that we build up a meta database during the project lifetime (and beyond) that satisfies all EU requirements and follows the FAIR principles. Supports Task 5.3.

WordTrans Data Management Plan V2

This report will include all identified needs for updating of the original DM-plan. Supported by Task 5.3.

Data sets, microdata, etc (2)

Dataset and report on effects of uncertainty in specific existing simple IAMs. [FaIR, ESMICON, FeliX, Earth4All]

Dataset and report on effects of uncertainty in specific existing simple IAMs. [FaIR, ESMICON, FeliX, Earth4All] Supported by T3.3):A dataset of fully descriptive output ranges which can be used to characterize and contextualize IAM outputs along with an associated report on the specifics of the method, and interpretation of the results. We’ll generate this data by performing a global sensitivity analysis (Saltelli et. al, 2008) on each of the models [FaIR, ESMICON, FeliX, Earth4All] across both parametric, and technological / social uncertainties. We’ll then combine the outputs of each of those model specific global sensitivity analyses to generate the complete range of model results. The main workstream for this effort is T3.3. Other tasks relied upon are T1.1 for updated and fully calibrated FaIR, and ESMICON models (D1.1).

Data set of ESM ensemble runs

Earth system model ensemble production. A large ensemble of Earth System model runs using the MPI-ESM and NorESM models, in CO2 driven mode under the SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-3.4 sceanrios, will be completed. The data will be uploaded to suitable servers (likely SIGMA2 and DKRZ) for permissive access to project members.This delivery is supported by Task 1.2.

Publications

Thesis and dissertations (1)

Assessing Planetary Boundary Transgressions and Their Causes - Using the FRIDA system dynamics model

Auteurs: Eriksson, Axel
Publié dans: 2025
Éditeur: LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

Peer reviewed articles (29)

Cross-system interactions for positive tipping cascades

Auteurs: Eker, S., Lenton, T. M., Powell, T., Scheffran, J., Smith, S. R., Swamy, D., & Zimm, C.
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-789-2024

Feedback-based sea level rise impact modelling for integrated assessment models with FRISIAv1.0

Auteurs: Lennart Ramme, Benjamin Blanz, Christopher Wells, Tony E. Wong, William Schoenberg, Chris Smith, Chao Li
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 18, 2025, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-18-10017-2025

An endogenous modelling framework of dietary behavioural change in the fully coupled human-climate FRIDA v2.1 model

Auteurs: Jefferson K. Rajah, Benjamin Blanz, Birgit Kopainsky, William Schoenberg
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 18, 2025, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-18-5997-2025

Polycrisis patterns: applying system archetypes to crisis interactions

Auteurs: David Collste, Cristina I. Apetrei, Linda Booth Sweeney, Jessica Lynch Boucher, Jenson Chong-Leng Goh, Olivier Hamant, Christoph E. Mandl, Gillian S. Martin Mehers, Riichiro Oda, Bert J. M. de Vries
Publié dans: Global Sustainability, Numéro 8, 2025, ISSN 2059-4798
Éditeur: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
DOI: 10.1017/SUS.2025.21

Pineapple production and visions of regeneration– contrasting Costa Rican (agri)cultural paradigms

Auteurs: Luana Schwarz, Carolin Janssen, Johannes Halbe
Publié dans: Revista Académica Arjé, Numéro 8, 2025, ISSN 2215-5538
Éditeur: Universidad Tecnica Nacional
DOI: 10.47633/2JXKVR72

An overview of FRIDA v2.1: a feedback-based, fully coupled, global integrated assessment model of climate and humans

Auteurs: William Schoenberg, Benjamin Blanz, Jefferson K. Rajah, Beniamino Callegari, Christopher Wells, Jannes Breier, Martin B. Grimeland, Andreas Nicolaidis Lindqvist, Lennart Ramme, Chris Smith, Chao Li, Sarah Mashhadi, Adakudlu Muralidhar, Cecilie Mauritzen
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 18, 2025, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-18-8047-2025

Participatory pathways to the Sustainable Development Goals: Inviting divergent perspectives through a cross-scale systems approach.

Auteurs: Collste, D., Aguiar, A. P., Harmáčková, Z., Galafassi, D., Pereira, L., Selomane, O., & van der Leeuw, S.
Publié dans: Environmental Research Communications, 2023, ISSN 2515-7620
Éditeur: Environmental Research Communications
DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/acce25

From situated knowledges to situated modelling: a relational framework for simulation modelling

Auteurs: Anja Klein, Krystin Unverzagt, Rossella Alba, Jonathan F. Donges, Tilman Hertz, Tobias Krueger, Emilie Lindkvist, Romina Martin, Jörg Niewöhner, Hannah Prawitz, Maja Schlüter, Luana Schwarz, Nanda Wijermans
Publié dans: Ecosystems and People, Numéro 20, 2025, ISSN 2639-5908
Éditeur: Informa UK Limited
DOI: 10.1080/26395916.2024.2361706

The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority

Auteurs: Jordan P. Everall, Fabian Tschofenig, Jonathan F. Donges, Ilona M. Otto
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro 16, 2025, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-16-189-2025

Harnessing social tipping dynamics: A systems approach for accelerating decarbonization

Auteurs: Sibel Eker, Charlie Wilson, Niklas Höhne, Mark S. McCaffrey, Irene Monasterolo, Leila Niamir, Caroline Zimm
Publié dans: One Earth, Numéro 7, 2024, ISSN 2590-3322
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.ONEEAR.2024.05.012

Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model

Auteurs: Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, Jonathan F. Donges
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro 16, 2025, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-16-1365-2025

Complexity and uncertainty in future food system transformation modelling

Auteurs: Enayat A. Moallemi, Adam C. Castonguay, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Rohan Nelson, Wolfgang Britz, Cameron Allen, Michalis Hadjikakou, Michael Battaglia, Brett A. Bryan, Costanza Conti, Raymundo Marcos-Martinez, Stefan Frank, Duy Nong, Sibel Eker, Saman Razavi, Javier Navarro-Garcia, Lei Gao
Publié dans: Nature Food, Numéro 6, 2025, ISSN 2662-1355
Éditeur: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S43016-025-01257-1

Integrative Sustainable Development Goal policy portfolios to accelerate global progress towards a more sustainable future: a modelling study

Auteurs: Jing Yang, Lei Gao, Zhaoxia Guo, Yucheng Dong, Enayat A Moallemi, Sibel Eker, Qi Liu, Zengxiao Chi, Fengming Liu, Michael Obersteiner, Brett A Bryan
Publié dans: The Lancet Planetary Health, Numéro 9, 2025, ISSN 2542-5196
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.LANPLH.2025.101318

Wellbeing cost of carbon

Auteurs: Sibel Eker, Claudia Reiter, Qi Liu, Michael Kuhn, Wolfgang Lutz
Publié dans: Global Sustainability, Numéro 9, 2026, ISSN 2059-4798
Éditeur: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
DOI: 10.1017/SUS.2025.10042

fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections

Auteurs: Chris Smith, Donald P. Cummins, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Nicholas Leach, Camilla Mathison, Antti-Ilari Partanen
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 17, 2024, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-17-8569-2024

The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority

Auteurs: Jordan Paul Everall, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto
Publié dans: EGUsphere, 2023, ISSN 2023-2241
Éditeur: EGUsphere
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2241

fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections

Auteurs: Chris Smith; Donald P. Cummins; Hege-Beate Fredriksen; Zebedee Nicholls; Malte Meinshausen; Myles Allen; Stuart Jenkins; Nicholas Leach; Camilla Mathison; Antti-Ilari Partanen
Publié dans: EGUsphere, 2024, ISSN 2023-2241
Éditeur: EGUsphere
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-708

FeliX 2.0: An integrated model of climate, economy, environment, and society interactions

Auteurs: Ye Q., Liu Q., Swamy D., Gao L., Moallemi E., Rydzak F., Eker S.
Publié dans: Environmental Modeling and Software, 2024, ISSN 1873-6726
Éditeur: ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106121

A systematic method to integrate co‐produced causal loop diagrams based on feedback stories

Auteurs: Jefferson K. Rajah, Birgit Kopainsky
Publié dans: System Dynamics Review, Numéro 41, 2025, ISSN 0883-7066
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/SDR.1794

Social media data shed light on air-conditioning interest of heat-vulnerable regions and sociodemographic groups

Auteurs: Sibel Eker; Alessio Mastrucci; Shonali Pachauri; Bas van Ruijven
Publié dans: One Earth, 2023, ISSN 2590-3322
Éditeur: One Earth
DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.03.011

Neglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty

Auteurs: Man Mei Chim, Thomas J. Aubry, Chris Smith, Anja Schmidt
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 6, 2025, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-025-02208-1

A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME)

Auteurs: Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, Douglas McNeall
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 18, 2025, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-18-1785-2025

What do you mean 'Climate Change'? An analysis of climate change framings in three climate assemblies

Auteurs: Corinna Zeitfogel, Tim Daw, David Collste
Publié dans: Environmental Science & Policy, Numéro 162, 2024, ISSN 1462-9011
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.ENVSCI.2024.103936

Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability

Auteurs: Peter Søgaard Jørgensen, Raf E. V. Jansen, Daniel I. Avila Ortega, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Jonathan F. Donges, Henrik Österblom, Per Olsson, Magnus Nyström, Steven J. Lade, Thomas Hahn, Carl Folke, Garry D. Peterson, Anne-Sophie Crépin
Publié dans: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Numéro 379, 2024, ISSN 0962-8436
Éditeur: The Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSTB.2022.0261

Climate uncertainty impacts on optimal mitigation pathways and social cost of carbon

Auteurs: Christopher J Smith, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Doris Folini Pu Yang,
Publié dans: environmental research letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acedc6

Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization

Auteurs: Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, Bryan M. Spears
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro 15, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-15-1179-2024

A software package for assessing terrestrial planetary boundaries

Auteurs: Dieter Gerten, Johanna Braun, Jannes Breier, Wolfgang Lucht, Arne Tobian, Fabian Stenzel
Publié dans: One Earth, Numéro 8, 2025, ISSN 2590-3322
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.ONEEAR.2025.101341

A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them

Auteurs: Timothy M. Lenton, Thomas W. R. Powell, Steven R. Smith, Frank W. Geels, Floor Alkemade, Martina Ayoub, Pete Barbrook-Johnson, Scarlett Benson, Fenna Blomsma, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Sara M. Constantino, Sibel Eker, Kai Greenlees, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Kelly Levin, Michael B. Mascia, Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Ilona M. Otto, Viktoria Spaiser, Simon Sharpe, Talia Smith
Publié dans: Sustainability Science, Numéro 21, 2026, ISSN 1862-4065
Éditeur: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1007/S11625-025-01704-9

Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot

Auteurs: Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Norman J. Steinert, Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Chris Smith, Chris Huntingford, Rebecca M. Varney, Andy J. Wiltshire
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, Numéro 15, 2025, ISSN 1758-678X
Éditeur: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41558-025-02327-9

Other (3)

Positive tipping cascades

Auteurs: Sibel Eker, Jürgen Scheffran, Timothy M. Lenton, Caroline Zimm, Steven R. Smith, Deepthi Swamy, Tom Powell
Publié dans: Global Tipping Points Report, 2023
Éditeur: Global Tipping Points

A dynamic systems approach to harness the potential of social tipping

Auteurs: Eker, Sibel; Wilson, Charlie; Höhne, Niklas; McCaffrey, Mark S.; Monasterolo, Irene; Niamir, Leila; Zimm, Caroline
Publié dans: arXiv preprint arXiv, 2023
Éditeur: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2309.14964

Full of Economic-Environment Linkages and Integration dX/dt (FeliX): Technical Model Documentation

Auteurs: Eker S, Liu Q, Reiter C, & Kuhn M.
Publié dans: IIASA Report, 2023, ISSN 0250-7625
Éditeur: https://iiasa.ac.at/

Conference proceedings (1)

Towards a fully coupled Integrated Climate Assessment Model: FRIDA Version 0.1 (Feedback-based knowledge Repository for IntegrateD Assessments)

Auteurs: William Schoenberg, Sarah Mashhadi, Cecilie Mauritzen, Chris Smith, Beniamino Callegari, David Collste, Sarah Cornell, Ada Gjermundsen
Publié dans: System Dynamics Conference (ISDC) 2023, 2023, ISSN 1099-1727
Éditeur: SYSTEM DYNAMICS SOCIETY

Monographic books (1)

Engaged decision making: From team knowledge to team decisions

Auteurs: Rouwette, E. A. J. A. and L. A. Franco
Publié dans: 2024
Éditeur: Routledge
DOI: 10.4324/9781003404200