Descripción del proyecto
Mejores modelos para pronosticar irregularidades ondulatorias que se propagan por la ionosfera
Las perturbaciones ionosféricas viajeras (TID, por sus siglas en inglés) son una clase concreta de perturbación meteorológica espacial (ondas que se propagan en la ionosfera) que podría comprometer el rendimiento de las infraestructuras críticas terrestres y espaciales. En el proyecto T-FORS, financiado con fondos europeos, se desarrollarán modelos mejorados que podrían ayudar a realizar pronósticos y avisos de TID con varias horas de antelación. Se emplearán algoritmos de aprendizaje automático para pronosticar la aparición y propagación de TID a gran escala. Además, se emplearán modelos estadísticos para calcular la probabilidad de ocurrencia y el patrón de propagación de TID de escala media.
Objetivo
Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) constitute a specific type of space weather disturbance affecting the performance of critical space and ground infrastructure by disrupting operations and communications in multiple sectors. T-FORS aims at providing new models able to interpret a broad range of observations of the solar corona, the interplanetary medium, the magnetosphere, the ionosphere and the atmosphere, and to issue forecasts and warnings for TIDs several hours ahead. Machine Learning techniques are used to train the models based on existing databases developed in the frames of past Horizon 2020 projects, to estimate the occurrence probability of medium scale TIDs and to forecast the occurrence and propagation of large scale TIDs. Prototype services are developed based on specifications from the users' community and following harmonized standards and quality control similar to the best practices of meteorological services. On ground demonstration tests are organised, by aerospace and civil protection agencies, to validate the performance of the T-FORS prototype services. A comprehensive architectural concept is proposed, including the densification of ground instrument networks, and new space missions, and possible future adjustments in order to develop a real-time operational service fully compliant and complementary to the ESA Space Weather services.
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HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation ActionsCoordinador
11810 Athina
Grecia