Description du projet
Adaptation et résilience face au changement climatique
Les catastrophes naturelles, aggravées par le changement climatique, constituent une menace économique croissante. Les évaluations conventionnelles des risques par les assurances se concentrent souvent sur des dangers uniques et négligent l’interaction complexe des risques multiples influencés par les changements climatiques. En outre, elles omettent le rôle des processus d’adaptation humaine dans la réduction des risques. Le projet INSUREADAPT, financé par le CER, permettra d’évaluer les risques climatiques multiples pour les assurances. Il utilise des modèles basés sur des agents (ABM pour «agent-based model») pour comprendre comment les personnes font des choix d’adaptation rationnels et contraints, en tenant compte des interactions sociales. En recourant à des enquêtes en temps réel et à des expérimentations économiques, INSUREADAPT vise à élaborer des dispositifs d’assurance innovants. Ces dispositifs inciteront les assurés à s’adapter à l’évolution des risques climatiques en associant une couverture financière à des stratégies adaptées, notamment la communication, des mesures incitatives telles que des franchises et des réductions de primes, ainsi que des encouragements.
Objectif
Natural disasters cause substantial economic losses, which are expected to increase due to climate change. The insurance sector plays a central role in managing these risks. It is thus imperative that insurers accurately assess and address climate risks.
Risk assessment methods currently fall short in accurately understanding climate risks because they focus on single hazards (e.g. floods) instead of correlated multi-hazard risks (e.g. windstorms and floods) affected by climate change. They also insufficiently account for human climate adaptation processes leading to risk reduction, which are characterized by bounded rationality and social interaction. Furthermore, additional insights are needed into how to design insurance arrangements that address climate change and stimulate policyholders to adapt to multi-hazard climate risks by limiting natural disaster damage.
This project aims to design insurance arrangements to enhance policyholders adaptation to multi-hazard climate risks by combining financial coverage with comprehensive strategies for stimulating risk reduction. Its interdisciplinary approach goes beyond the state-of-the-art by creating novel multi-hazard climate risk assessments for insurance and by developing agent-based models (ABMs) that account for boundedly rational human adaptation decisions and social interaction. The ABMs evaluate natural disaster insurance arrangements for EU countries with diverse risk contexts and assess strategies for stimulating adaptation by policyholders, based on input from behavioural economic studies. Repeated and real-time surveys and economic experiments will identify comprehensive strategies for triggering behavioural change to stimulate adaptation to the multitude of climate change risks individuals face. These strategies linked to (publicprivate) insurance combine communication on risk and risk reduction measures, insurance incentives (e.g. deductibles, premium discounts), and nudges.
Mots‑clés
Programme(s)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Régime de financement
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsInstitution d’accueil
1081 HV Amsterdam
Pays-Bas