Descrizione del progetto
Adattamento e resilienza nel contesto dei cambiamenti climatici
I disastri naturali, esacerbati dai cambiamenti climatici, pongono una minaccia sempre maggiore per l’economia. Le valutazioni convenzionali del rischio assicurativo si concentrano spesso su singoli rischi, trascurando la complessa interazione esistente tra i molteplici rischi derivanti dalle mutazioni del clima. Inoltre, tali analisi trascurano il ruolo rivestito dai processi di adattamento umano nella riduzione del rischio. Il progetto INSUREADAPT, finanziato dal CER, svilupperà valutazioni multirischio legate al clima per le assicurazioni. Mediante l’utilizzo di modelli basati su agenti, il progetto si prefigge di comprendere come le persone compiono scelte di adattamento razionali e vincolate, prendendo in considerazione le interazioni sociali. Grazie allo svolgimento di indagini in tempo reale ed esperimenti economici, INSUREADAPT si propone di creare soluzioni assicurative innovative. Questi accordi incoraggeranno gli assicurati ad adattarsi all’evoluzione dei rischi climatici fondendo la copertura finanziaria con strategie personalizzate, tra cui la comunicazione, incentivi come deduzioni e sconti sui premi e «spinte gentili».
Obiettivo
Natural disasters cause substantial economic losses, which are expected to increase due to climate change. The insurance sector plays a central role in managing these risks. It is thus imperative that insurers accurately assess and address climate risks.
Risk assessment methods currently fall short in accurately understanding climate risks because they focus on single hazards (e.g. floods) instead of correlated multi-hazard risks (e.g. windstorms and floods) affected by climate change. They also insufficiently account for human climate adaptation processes leading to risk reduction, which are characterized by bounded rationality and social interaction. Furthermore, additional insights are needed into how to design insurance arrangements that address climate change and stimulate policyholders to adapt to multi-hazard climate risks by limiting natural disaster damage.
This project aims to design insurance arrangements to enhance policyholders adaptation to multi-hazard climate risks by combining financial coverage with comprehensive strategies for stimulating risk reduction. Its interdisciplinary approach goes beyond the state-of-the-art by creating novel multi-hazard climate risk assessments for insurance and by developing agent-based models (ABMs) that account for boundedly rational human adaptation decisions and social interaction. The ABMs evaluate natural disaster insurance arrangements for EU countries with diverse risk contexts and assess strategies for stimulating adaptation by policyholders, based on input from behavioural economic studies. Repeated and real-time surveys and economic experiments will identify comprehensive strategies for triggering behavioural change to stimulate adaptation to the multitude of climate change risks individuals face. These strategies linked to (publicprivate) insurance combine communication on risk and risk reduction measures, insurance incentives (e.g. deductibles, premium discounts), and nudges.
Parole chiave
Programma(i)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Argomento(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsIstituzione ospitante
1081 HV Amsterdam
Paesi Bassi