Descripción del proyecto
Alcance y límites de las predicciones cuantitativas del funcionamiento de los ecosistemas
El declive de los servicios ecosistémicos fundamentales pone de manifiesto la necesidad de políticas que favorezcan la biodiversidad. Para aplicar esas políticas, es esencial comprender si los efectos son consecuencia directa del cambio global o si están mediados por cambios en la biodiversidad. Teniendo esto en cuenta, el proyecto BEFPREDICT, financiado por el Consejo Europeo de Investigación, tiende un puente entre el cambio global y la biodiversidad y las funciones de los ecosistemas. La iniciativa se basa en avances recientes en ecología de comunidades, ecología de rasgos funcionales y métodos de comparación de modelos predictivos. El equipo del proyecto creará nuevos modelos predictivos (modelos JEF), desarrollará herramientas para la comparación y evaluación de modelos y aplicará los modelos JEF a conjuntos de datos de observación a largo plazo. Su objetivo es determinar el alcance y las limitaciones de las predicciones cuantitativas del funcionamiento de los ecosistemas.
Objetivo
The observed degradation in essential ecosystem services has catalysed a demand for biodiversity promoting policies. To implement them we need quantitative information on how ecosystem functions are changing due to the direct effects of global change vs. effects mediated by changes in biodiversity. With BEFPREDICT, I will tackle this challenge by providing a novel framework for linking global change, through its effects on biodiversity, to ecosystem functions. My approach builds on three recent developments, each transformative in itself but so far essentially unlinked to each other. First, community ecology has significantly progressed our ability to predict how abiotic drivers shape biodiversity. Second, trait-based ecology offers a tool for learning mechanisms behind ecosystem functions. Third, methods developed by climate scientists and statisticians provide tools for predictive model comparison and assessment in ecology, which have so far largely been lacking. Building on these advances, I will: (Objective 1) develop novel predictive models of the joint distribution of species and ecosystem functions that build on community and trait-based ecology (JEF models); (Objective 2) develop a novel toolbox of model comparison and assessment methods for comparing and testing for the predictive limits of ecological models; (Objective 3) apply the JEF models to unique long-term observational datasets. Through this joint approach, I will tease apart the relative roles of direct effect of the abiotic environment on ecosystem functions and the effects mediated by changes in biodiversity. This proposal balances high risk and high gain by aiming at the truly ambitious goal of establish the scope and limits for quantitative predictions of ecosystem functioning. These conceptual and methodological breakthroughs will open new horizons for global change research and provide tools urgently needed for a transformative change to ecologically sustainable societies.
Ámbito científico
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Régimen de financiación
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsInstitución de acogida
00014 Helsingin Yliopisto
Finlandia