Descrizione del progetto
Ambito e limiti delle previsioni quantitative del funzionamento degli ecosistemi
Il declino dei servizi ecosistemici critici sottolinea la necessità di politiche che promuovano la biodiversità. Per attuare queste politiche, è fondamentale capire se i cambiamenti derivano direttamente dal cambiamento globale o se sono mediati dai cambiamenti nella biodiversità. In quest’ottica, il progetto BEFPREDICT, finanziato dal CER, getta un ponte tra il cambiamento globale e la biodiversità e le funzioni degli ecosistemi. Si basa sui recenti progressi dell’ecologia di comunità, dell’ecologia basata sui tratti e dei metodi di confronto dei modelli predittivi. Il progetto svilupperà nuovi modelli predittivi (modelli JEF), creerà strumenti per il confronto e la valutazione dei modelli e applicherà i modelli JEF a serie di dati basati sulle osservazioni a lungo termine. L’obiettivo è stabilire la portata e i limiti delle previsioni quantitative del funzionamento degli ecosistemi.
Obiettivo
The observed degradation in essential ecosystem services has catalysed a demand for biodiversity promoting policies. To implement them we need quantitative information on how ecosystem functions are changing due to the direct effects of global change vs. effects mediated by changes in biodiversity. With BEFPREDICT, I will tackle this challenge by providing a novel framework for linking global change, through its effects on biodiversity, to ecosystem functions. My approach builds on three recent developments, each transformative in itself but so far essentially unlinked to each other. First, community ecology has significantly progressed our ability to predict how abiotic drivers shape biodiversity. Second, trait-based ecology offers a tool for learning mechanisms behind ecosystem functions. Third, methods developed by climate scientists and statisticians provide tools for predictive model comparison and assessment in ecology, which have so far largely been lacking. Building on these advances, I will: (Objective 1) develop novel predictive models of the joint distribution of species and ecosystem functions that build on community and trait-based ecology (JEF models); (Objective 2) develop a novel toolbox of model comparison and assessment methods for comparing and testing for the predictive limits of ecological models; (Objective 3) apply the JEF models to unique long-term observational datasets. Through this joint approach, I will tease apart the relative roles of direct effect of the abiotic environment on ecosystem functions and the effects mediated by changes in biodiversity. This proposal balances high risk and high gain by aiming at the truly ambitious goal of establish the scope and limits for quantitative predictions of ecosystem functioning. These conceptual and methodological breakthroughs will open new horizons for global change research and provide tools urgently needed for a transformative change to ecologically sustainable societies.
Campo scientifico
Parole chiave
Programma(i)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Argomento(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsIstituzione ospitante
00014 Helsingin Yliopisto
Finlandia