Project description
Adjustment mechanisms to confront climate change
The world is grappling with the rapid changes in our climate. Rising temperatures threaten to diminish agricultural productivity in developing nations, leaving them with uncertain paths for adaptation. In this context, the ERC-funded ClimateAdapt project will explore two potential adjustment mechanisms. The first involves shifting economic activity away from agriculture and into non-agricultural sectors, fostering a reallocation of the workforce. However, this path may not be viable for regions with limited manufacturing productivity. The second mechanism involves migration to areas with better employment opportunities. With newly digitised data, ClimateAdapt aims to provide empirical evidence on how labour and capital market frictions shape the response to climate change.
Objective
The fast pace at which the earth climate is changing is one of the major challenges of our time. Rising temperatures are expected to reduce agricultural productivity in developing countries, which face uncertain adaptation paths. The theoretical literature highlights two potential adjustment mechanisms: the reallocation of economic activity towards non-agricultural sectors or towards colder regions. In the first case, lower agricultural productivity generates a shift in comparative advantage towards non-agricultural sectors and a reallocation of workers from agriculture towards manufacturing and services. However, this path might not be feasible for regions with low manufacturing productivity. In this second case, the lack of local employment opportunities can lead to migration towards other areas. There is a rich theoretical and quantitative literature studying the relative importance of each margin of adjustment. However, these predictions are subject to a large level of uncertainty due to the lack of direct empirical evidence. In particular, we lack evidence on how labor and capital market frictions shape the adjustment to climate change. We are now in the position to produce this evidence. The last decade has been unusually hot, leading to many persistent extreme weather events in tropical countries, which triggered adaptation responses. In this project, we use newly digitized administrative reports on extreme weather events occurred in Brazil during the last two decades, a new meteorological measure of excess dryness relative to historical averages, and detailed social security and credit registry data to estimate the effects of climate change on i) the local economy of affected areas, ii) the magnitude of the labor and capital flows it generates and iii) factor allocation across sectors and firms in destination regions.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques.
- social scienceseconomics and businesseconomicsproduction economicsproductivity
- agricultural sciencesagriculture, forestry, and fisheriesagriculture
- social scienceseconomics and businessbusiness and managementemployment
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Programme(s)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Funding Scheme
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsHost institution
08002 Barcelona
Spain