Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing countries

Projektbeschreibung

Anpassungsmechanismen gegen den Klimawandel

Die Welt hat mit den raschen Klimaveränderungen zu kämpfen. Die steigenden Temperaturen drohen die landwirtschaftliche Produktivität in den Entwicklungsländern zu beeinträchtigen, wodurch diese Länder nicht wissen, wie sie sich anpassen sollen. In diesem Zusammenhang wird das Team des ERC-finanzierte Projekt ClimateAdapt zwei potenzielle Anpassungsmechanismen analysieren. Der erste besteht in einer Verlagerung der Wirtschaftstätigkeit von der Landwirtschaft in nichtlandwirtschaftliche Sektoren, was eine Umverteilung der Arbeitskräfte fördert. Für Regionen mit begrenzter Produktivität in der Fertigung ist dieser Weg jedoch möglicherweise nicht gangbar. Der zweite Mechanismus beinhaltet die Migration in Gebiete mit besseren Beschäftigungsmöglichkeiten. Mit neu digitalisierten Daten ist das Ziel von ClimateAdapt, empirisch nachzuweisen, wie Arbeits- und Kapitalmarktfriktionen die Reaktion auf den Klimawandel beeinflussen.

Ziel

The fast pace at which the earth climate is changing is one of the major challenges of our time. Rising temperatures are expected to reduce agricultural productivity in developing countries, which face uncertain adaptation paths. The theoretical literature highlights two potential adjustment mechanisms: the reallocation of economic activity towards non-agricultural sectors or towards colder regions. In the first case, lower agricultural productivity generates a shift in comparative advantage towards non-agricultural sectors and a reallocation of workers from agriculture towards manufacturing and services. However, this path might not be feasible for regions with low manufacturing productivity. In this second case, the lack of local employment opportunities can lead to migration towards other areas. There is a rich theoretical and quantitative literature studying the relative importance of each margin of adjustment. However, these predictions are subject to a large level of uncertainty due to the lack of direct empirical evidence. In particular, we lack evidence on how labor and capital market frictions shape the adjustment to climate change. We are now in the position to produce this evidence. The last decade has been unusually hot, leading to many persistent extreme weather events in tropical countries, which triggered adaptation responses. In this project, we use newly digitized administrative reports on extreme weather events occurred in Brazil during the last two decades, a new meteorological measure of excess dryness relative to historical averages, and detailed social security and credit registry data to estimate the effects of climate change on i) the local economy of affected areas, ii) the magnitude of the labor and capital flows it generates and iii) factor allocation across sectors and firms in destination regions.