Efficient and rapidly SCAlable EU-wide evidence-driven Pandemic response plans through dynamic Epidemic data assimilation

Project Information

ESCAPE

Grant agreement ID: 101095619

DOI

10.3030/101095619

EC signature date 6 October 2022

Start date 1 January 2023

End date 31 December 2026

Funded under

• Health

Total cost

€ 2 420 930,00

EU contribution

€ 2 420 929,75

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITEIT HASSELT
Belgium

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Deliverables

Documents, reports (3)

Report on the 1st meeting of the Data Stewards Network for pandemic preparedness
Initial inventory of results
Report summarising the definitions of relevant outcome & process indicators.

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (1)

Public website available to release updates of project outputs to lay public and press, as deemed appropriate by the SC

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (38)

Estimating the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 transmission in the Netherlands

Author(s): Jantien A. Backer, Don Klinkenberg, Fuminari Miura, Jacco Wallinga
Published in: PLOS Computational Biology, Issue 21, 2025, ISSN 1553-7358
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PCBI.1013502

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 passes and mandates on disease transmission, vaccination intention, and uptake: A scoping review

Author(s): Yessika Adelwin Natalia, Margaux Delporte, Dries De Witte, Philippe Beutels, Mathias Dewatripont and Geert Molenberghs
Published in: BMC Public Health, 2023, ISSN 1471-2458
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-17203-4

Geospatial patterns of excess mortality in Belgium: Insights from the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic

Author(s): Yessika Adelwin Natalia, Geert Molenberghs, Christel Faes and Thomas Neyens
Published in: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 2024, ISSN 1877-5853
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2024.100660

Relating mental health, health-related quality of life and well-being in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional comparison in 14 European countries in early 2023

Author(s): Zhuxin Mao, Koen Pepermans, Philippe Beutels
Published in: Public Health, Issue 238, 2025, ISSN 0033-3506
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.PUHE.2024.11.010

Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation

Author(s): Francesco Parino, Emanuele Gustani-Buss, Trevor Bedford, Marc A Suchard, Nídia S Trovão, Andrew Rambaut, Vittoria Colizza, Chiara Poletto, Philippe Lemey
Published in: PNAS Nexus, Issue 4, 2025, ISSN 2752-6542
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
DOI: 10.1093/PNASNEXUS/PGAE561

Epidemic graph diagrams as analytics for epidemic control in the data-rich era

Author(s): Eugenio Valdano, Davide Colombi, Chiara Poletto & Vittoria Colizza
Published in: Nature, 2023, ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43856-1

Flexible Bayesian estimation of incubation times

Author(s): Oswaldo Gressani; Andrea Torneri; Niel Hens; Christel Faes
Published in: American Journal of Epidemiology, 2024, ISSN 1476-6256
Publisher: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwae192

Nonparametric serial interval estimation with uniform mixtures

Author(s): Oswaldo Gressani, Niel Hens
Published in: PLOS Computational Biology, Issue 21, 2025, ISSN 1553-7358
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PCBI.1013338

The impact of spatial connectivity on NPIs effectiveness

Author(s): Chiara E. Sabbatini, Giulia Pullano, Laura Di Domenico, Stefania Rubrichi, Shweta Bansal & Vittoria Colizza
Published in: BMC Infectious Diseases, 2024, ISSN 1471-2334
Publisher: BioMed
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08900-x

Identifying the main drivers of transmission in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal

Author(s): Constantino Caetano, Leonardo Angeli, Irma Varela-Lasheras, Pietro Coletti, Luisa Morgado, Pedro Lima, Lander Willem, Baltazar Nunes, Niel Hens
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 14, 2024, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-024-76604-6

Bayesian Nowcasting with Laplacian-P-Splines

Author(s): Bryan Sumalinab, Oswaldo Gressani, Niel Hens, Christel Faes
Published in: Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, Issue 34, 2025, ISSN 1061-8600
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
DOI: 10.1080/10618600.2024.2395414

Defining “success” in managing pandemic across disciplines: insights from an expert consultation

Author(s): Z Mao, Z Zsabokorszky, J Bilcke, P Beutels
Published in: European Journal of Public Health, Issue 35, 2025, ISSN 1101-1262
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
DOI: 10.1093/EURPUB/CKAF161.1852

A framework to assess the risk of yellow fever emergence

Author(s): Charlotte Perlant, Raphaëlle Klitting, Vittoria Colizza, Katy A M Gaythorpe, Gaëlle Gabiane, Xavier de Lamballerie, Anna B Failloux, Simon Cauchemez, Paolo Bosetti
Published in: Journal of Travel Medicine, Issue 32, 2025, ISSN 1195-1982
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
DOI: 10.1093/JTM/TAAF081

Characterising non-household contact patterns relevant to respiratory transmission in the USA: analysis of a cross-sectional survey

Author(s): Juliana C Taube, Zachary Susswein, Vittoria Colizza, Shweta Bansal
Published in: The Lancet Digital Health, Issue 7, 2026, ISSN 2589-7500
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.LANDIG.2025.100888

Reflections On Epidemiological Modeling To Inform Policy During The COVID-19 Pandemic In Western Europe, 2020–23

Author(s): Mark Jit, Kylie Ainslie, Christian Althaus, Constantino Caetano, Vittoria Colizza, Daniela Paolotti, Philippe Beutels, Lander Willem, John Edmunds, Baltazar Nunes, Sónia Namorado, Christel Faes, Nicola Low, Jacco Wallinga, and Niel Hens
Published in: Health Affairs, 2023, ISSN 0278-2715
Publisher: Project HOPE
DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2023.00688

Determinants of COVID-19 vaccination coverage in European and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries

Author(s): Vladimira Varbanova, Niel Hens, Philippe Beutels
Published in: Frontiers in Public Health, Issue 12, 2025, ISSN 2296-2565
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/FPUBH.2024.1466858

Planning and adjusting the COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign to reduce disease burden

Author(s): Laura Di Domenico, Yair Goldberg and Vittoria Colizza
Published in: Infectious Disease Modelling, 2024, ISSN 2468-2152
Publisher: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/J.IDM.2024.09.002

Contact behaviour before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands: evidence from contact surveys, 2016 to 2017 and 2020 to 2023

Author(s): Jantien A Backer, Eric R A Vos, Gerco den Hartog, Cheyenne C E van Hagen, Hester E de Melker, Fiona R M van der Klis, Jacco Wallinga
Published in: Eurosurveillance, Issue 29, 2024, ISSN 1560-7917
Publisher: European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2024.29.43.2400143

An Efficient Approach to Nowcasting the Time-varying Reproduction Number

Author(s): Bryan Sumalinab, Oswaldo Gressani, Niel Hens and Christel Faes
Published in: Epidemiology, 2024, ISSN 1531-5487
Publisher: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001744

Mobility-driven synthetic contact matrices as a scalable solution for real-time pandemic response modeling

Author(s): Laura Di Domenico, Paolo Bosetti, Chiara E. Sabbatini, Lulla Opatowski, Vittoria Colizza
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 17, 2026, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-026-68557-3

A Comparison of Items and Constructs of Standardized Health-Related Quality of Life and Mental Well-Being Measures

Author(s): Zhuxin Mao, Jonas Crèvecoeur, Koen Pepermans, Paul Kind, Thomas Neyens, Philippe Beutels
Published in: Value in Health, Issue 27, 2025, ISSN 1098-3015
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.JVAL.2024.01.005

Evaluating the COVID-19 responses of Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, February–June 2020: a counterfactual modeling study

Author(s): Pieter de Boer, Fuminari Miura, Giske Lagerweij, Jacco Wallinga
Published in: BMC Medicine, Issue 23, 2025, ISSN 1741-7015
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1186/S12916-025-04071-5

Dengue virus importation risks in Africa: a modelling study

Author(s): Jenicca Poongavanan, José Lourenço, Joseph L-H Tsui, Vittoria Colizza, Yajna Ramphal, Cheryl Baxter, Moritz U G Kraemer, Marcel Dunaiski, Tulio de Oliveira, Houriiyah Tegally
Published in: The Lancet Planetary Health, Issue 8, 2024, ISSN 2542-5196
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00272-9

Exploring influenza vaccination determinants through digital participatory surveillance

Author(s): Kathleen Kelley, Nicolò Gozzi, Mattia Mazzoli, Daniela Paolotti
Published in: BMC Public Health, Issue 25, 2025, ISSN 1471-2458
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1186/S12889-025-22496-8

COVID-19-related health utility values and changes in COVID-19 patients and the general population: a scoping review

Author(s): Mao, Zhuxin; Li, Xiao; Jit, Mark; Beutels, Philippe
Published in: Quality of life Research, 2024, ISSN 1573-2649
Publisher: Springer International
DOI: 10.1007/s11136-023-03584-x

Estimates of epidemiological parameters for H5N1 influenza in humans: a rapid review

Author(s): Jack Ward, Joshua W. Lambert, Timothy W. Russell, James M. Azam, Adam J. Kucharski, Sebastian Funk, Billy J. Quilty, Oswaldo Gressani, Niel Hens, W. John Edmunds
Published in: BMC Infectious Diseases, Issue 25, 2025, ISSN 1471-2334
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1186/S12879-025-11933-Z

The impact of quality-adjusted life years on evaluating COVID-19 mitigation strategies: lessons from age-specific vaccination roll-out and variants of concern in Belgium (2020-2022)

Author(s): Lander Willem, Steven Abrams, Nicoals Franco, Pietro Coletti, Pieter J K Libin, James Wambua, Simon Couvreur, Emmanuel André, Tom Wenseleers, Zhuxin, Mao, Andrea Torneri, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels en Niel Hens
Published in: BioMed Central (BMC), 2024, ISSN 1471-2458
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-18576-w

Estimating Re and overdispersion in secondary cases from the size of identical sequence clusters of SARS-CoV-2

Author(s): Emma B Hodcroft, Martin S Wohlfender, Richard A Neher, Julien Riou, Christian L Althaus
Published in: PLOS Computational Biology, Issue 21, 2025, ISSN 1553-7358
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PCBI.1012960

Epidemiological characteristics of monkeypox virus Clade Ib in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author(s): Cécile Kremer, Sabin Sabiti Nundu, Emmanuel Hasivirwe Vakaniaki, Isabel Brosius, Guy Mukari, Papy Munganga, Eugene Bangwen, Jean Claude Tshomba, Yves Mujula, Elise De Vos, Christophe Van Dijck, Sarah Houben, Oswaldo Gressani, Cris Kacita, Daniel Mukadi-Bamuleka, Tony Wawina-Bokalanga, Eddy Kinganda-Lusamaki, Adrienne Amuri-Aziza, Patrick Mutombo Lupola, Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum, Placide Mbala-Kingebeni, Laurens Liesenborghs, Niel Hens, Andrea Torneri
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 17, 2025, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-025-66875-6

Individual and neighborhood based socioeconomic factors relevant for contact behaviour and epidemic control

Author(s): Laura Di Domenico, Martina L. Reichmuth, Christian L. Althaus
Published in: Communications Medicine, Issue 6, 2025, ISSN 2730-664X
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S43856-025-01282-Y

Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis

Author(s): Leonardo Angeli, Constantino Caetano, Nicolas Franco, Pietro Coletti, Christel Faes, Geert Molenberghs, Phiippe Beutels, Steven Abrams, Lander Willem and Niel Hens
Published in: Nature Communications, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-025-57087-Z

Modelling practices, data provisioning, sharing and dissemination needs for pandemic decision-making: a European survey-based modellers’ perspective, 2020 to 2022

Author(s): Esther van Kleef, Wim Van Bortel, Elena Arsevska, Luca Busani, Simon Dellicour, Laura Di Domenico, Marius Gilbert, Sabine L van Elsland, Moritz UG Kraemer, Shengjie Lai, Philippe Lemey, Stefano Merler, Zoran Milosavljevic, Annapaola Rizzoli, Danijela Simic, Andrew J Tatem, Maguelonne Teisseire, William Wint, Vittoria Colizza, Chiara Poletto
Published in: Eurosurveillance, Issue 30, 2025, ISSN 1560-7917
Publisher: European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2025.30.42.2500216

Dynamic Landscape of Mpox Importation Risks Driven by Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in 2022

Author(s): Sung-mok Jung, Fuminari Miura, Hiroaki Murayama, Sebastian Funk, Jacco Wallinga, Justin Lessier and Akira Endo
Published in: Journal of Infectious diseases, 2023, ISSN 0022-1899
Publisher: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/INFDIS/JIAE433

Genomic assessment of invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1

Author(s): JOSEPH L.-H. TSUI, JOHN T. MCCRONE, BEN LAMBERT, SUMALI BAJAJ, RHYS P. D. INWARD, PAOLO BOSETTI , ROSARIO EVANS PENA, HOURIIYAH TEGALLY, VERITY HILL, ALEXANDER E. ZAREBSKI , THOMAS P. PEACOCK , LUYANG LIU, NEO WU , MEGAN DAVIS, ISAAC I. BOGOCH, KAMRAN KHA
Published in: Science, 2023, ISSN 1095-9203
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
DOI: 10.1126/science.adg6605

The epidemiology of pathogens with pandemic potential: A review of key parameters and clustering analysis

Author(s): Jack Ward, Oswaldo Gressani, Sol Kim, Niel Hens, W. John Edmunds
Published in: Epidemics, Issue 54, 2026, ISSN 1755-4365
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.EPIDEM.2025.100882

Preserving friendships in school contacts: An algorithm to construct synthetic temporal networks for epidemic modelling

Author(s): Lucille Calmon, Elisabetta Colosi, Giulia Bassignana, Alain Barrat, Vittoria Colizza
Published in: PLOS Computational Biology, Issue 20, 2024, ISSN 1553-7358
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PCBI.1012661

Repetition in social contacts: implications in modelling the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in pre-pandemic and pandemic settings

Author(s): Neilshan Loedy, Jacco Wallinga, Niel Hens and Andrea Torneri
Published in: Proceedings of the royal society B Biological sciences, 2024, ISSN 1471-2954
Publisher: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2024.1296

Who acquires infection from whom? A sensitivity analysis of transmission dynamics during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium

Author(s): Leonardo Angeli, Constantino Pereira Caetano, Nicolas Franco, Steven Abrams, Pietro Coletti, Inneke Van Nieuwenhuyse, Sorin Pop and Niel Hens
Published in: Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2024, ISSN 1095-8541
Publisher: Academic Press Inc.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2024.111721

Other (5)

Estimating Re and overdispersion in secondary cases from the size of identical sequence clusters of SARS-CoV-2

Author(s): Emma B. Hodcroft, Martin S. Wohlfender, Richard A. Neher, Julien Riou and Christian L. Althaus
Published in: medRxiv, 2024
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL)
DOI: 10.1101/2024.05.26.24307940

Bayesian nowcasting with Laplacian-P-splines

Author(s): Bryan Sumalinab, Oswaldo Gressani, Niel Hens and Christel Faes
Published in: medRxiv, 2022
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL)
DOI: 10.1101/2022.08.26.22279249

Preserving friendships in school contacts: an algorithm to construct synthetic temporal networks for epidemic modelling

Author(s): Lucille Calmon, Elisabetta Colosi, Giulia Bassignana, Alain Barrat and VittoriaColizza
Published in: medRxiv, 2024
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL)
DOI: 10.1101/2024.08.20.24312288

Evaluating the COVID-19 responses of Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom, February-June 2020: A counterfactual modelling study

Author(s): Pieter T. de Boer, Fuminari Miura, Giske R. Lagerweij and Jacco Wallinga
Published in: medRxiv, 2024
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL)
DOI: 10.1101/2024.07.05.24309992

From crisis support to COVID-19 pandemic preparedness

Author(s): Sarah Vercruysse, Lisa Hermans, Anna Carnagie
Published in: Health Europe, 2023
Publisher: Health Communications