Efficient and rapidly SCAlable EU-wide evidence-driven Pandemic response plans through dynamic Epidemic data assimilation

Informazioni relative al progetto

ESCAPE

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: 101095619

DOI

10.3030/101095619

Data della firma CE 6 Ottobre 2022

Data di avvio 1 Gennaio 2023

Data di completamento 31 Dicembre 2026

Finanziato da

• Health

Costo totale

€ 2 420 930,00

Contributo UE

€ 2 420 929,75

Coordinato da

UNIVERSITEIT HASSELT
Belgium

CORDIS fornisce collegamenti ai risultati finali pubblici e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti ORIZZONTE.

I link ai risultati e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti del 7° PQ, così come i link ad alcuni tipi di risultati specifici come dataset e software, sono recuperati dinamicamente da .OpenAIRE .

Risultati finali

Documents, reports (3)

Report on the 1st meeting of the Data Stewards Network for pandemic preparedness
Initial inventory of results
Report summarising the definitions of relevant outcome & process indicators.

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (1)

Public website available to release updates of project outputs to lay public and press, as deemed appropriate by the SC

Pubblicazioni

Peer reviewed articles (38)

Estimating the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 transmission in the Netherlands

Autori: Jantien A. Backer, Don Klinkenberg, Fuminari Miura, Jacco Wallinga
Pubblicato in: PLOS Computational Biology, Numero 21, 2025, ISSN 1553-7358
Editore: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PCBI.1013502

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 passes and mandates on disease transmission, vaccination intention, and uptake: A scoping review

Autori: Yessika Adelwin Natalia, Margaux Delporte, Dries De Witte, Philippe Beutels, Mathias Dewatripont and Geert Molenberghs
Pubblicato in: BMC Public Health, 2023, ISSN 1471-2458
Editore: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-17203-4

Geospatial patterns of excess mortality in Belgium: Insights from the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic

Autori: Yessika Adelwin Natalia, Geert Molenberghs, Christel Faes and Thomas Neyens
Pubblicato in: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 2024, ISSN 1877-5853
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2024.100660

Relating mental health, health-related quality of life and well-being in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional comparison in 14 European countries in early 2023

Autori: Zhuxin Mao, Koen Pepermans, Philippe Beutels
Pubblicato in: Public Health, Numero 238, 2025, ISSN 0033-3506
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.PUHE.2024.11.010

Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation

Autori: Francesco Parino, Emanuele Gustani-Buss, Trevor Bedford, Marc A Suchard, Nídia S Trovão, Andrew Rambaut, Vittoria Colizza, Chiara Poletto, Philippe Lemey
Pubblicato in: PNAS Nexus, Numero 4, 2025, ISSN 2752-6542
Editore: Oxford University Press (OUP)
DOI: 10.1093/PNASNEXUS/PGAE561

Epidemic graph diagrams as analytics for epidemic control in the data-rich era

Autori: Eugenio Valdano, Davide Colombi, Chiara Poletto & Vittoria Colizza
Pubblicato in: Nature, 2023, ISSN 1476-4687
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43856-1

Flexible Bayesian estimation of incubation times

Autori: Oswaldo Gressani; Andrea Torneri; Niel Hens; Christel Faes
Pubblicato in: American Journal of Epidemiology, 2024, ISSN 1476-6256
Editore: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwae192

Nonparametric serial interval estimation with uniform mixtures

Autori: Oswaldo Gressani, Niel Hens
Pubblicato in: PLOS Computational Biology, Numero 21, 2025, ISSN 1553-7358
Editore: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PCBI.1013338

The impact of spatial connectivity on NPIs effectiveness

Autori: Chiara E. Sabbatini, Giulia Pullano, Laura Di Domenico, Stefania Rubrichi, Shweta Bansal & Vittoria Colizza
Pubblicato in: BMC Infectious Diseases, 2024, ISSN 1471-2334
Editore: BioMed
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08900-x

Identifying the main drivers of transmission in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal

Autori: Constantino Caetano, Leonardo Angeli, Irma Varela-Lasheras, Pietro Coletti, Luisa Morgado, Pedro Lima, Lander Willem, Baltazar Nunes, Niel Hens
Pubblicato in: Scientific Reports, Numero 14, 2024, ISSN 2045-2322
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-024-76604-6

Bayesian Nowcasting with Laplacian-P-Splines

Autori: Bryan Sumalinab, Oswaldo Gressani, Niel Hens, Christel Faes
Pubblicato in: Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, Numero 34, 2025, ISSN 1061-8600
Editore: Informa UK Limited
DOI: 10.1080/10618600.2024.2395414

Defining “success” in managing pandemic across disciplines: insights from an expert consultation

Autori: Z Mao, Z Zsabokorszky, J Bilcke, P Beutels
Pubblicato in: European Journal of Public Health, Numero 35, 2025, ISSN 1101-1262
Editore: Oxford University Press (OUP)
DOI: 10.1093/EURPUB/CKAF161.1852

A framework to assess the risk of yellow fever emergence

Autori: Charlotte Perlant, Raphaëlle Klitting, Vittoria Colizza, Katy A M Gaythorpe, Gaëlle Gabiane, Xavier de Lamballerie, Anna B Failloux, Simon Cauchemez, Paolo Bosetti
Pubblicato in: Journal of Travel Medicine, Numero 32, 2025, ISSN 1195-1982
Editore: Oxford University Press (OUP)
DOI: 10.1093/JTM/TAAF081

Characterising non-household contact patterns relevant to respiratory transmission in the USA: analysis of a cross-sectional survey

Autori: Juliana C Taube, Zachary Susswein, Vittoria Colizza, Shweta Bansal
Pubblicato in: The Lancet Digital Health, Numero 7, 2026, ISSN 2589-7500
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.LANDIG.2025.100888

Reflections On Epidemiological Modeling To Inform Policy During The COVID-19 Pandemic In Western Europe, 2020–23

Autori: Mark Jit, Kylie Ainslie, Christian Althaus, Constantino Caetano, Vittoria Colizza, Daniela Paolotti, Philippe Beutels, Lander Willem, John Edmunds, Baltazar Nunes, Sónia Namorado, Christel Faes, Nicola Low, Jacco Wallinga, and Niel Hens
Pubblicato in: Health Affairs, 2023, ISSN 0278-2715
Editore: Project HOPE
DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2023.00688

Determinants of COVID-19 vaccination coverage in European and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries

Autori: Vladimira Varbanova, Niel Hens, Philippe Beutels
Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Public Health, Numero 12, 2025, ISSN 2296-2565
Editore: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/FPUBH.2024.1466858

Planning and adjusting the COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign to reduce disease burden

Autori: Laura Di Domenico, Yair Goldberg and Vittoria Colizza
Pubblicato in: Infectious Disease Modelling, 2024, ISSN 2468-2152
Editore: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/J.IDM.2024.09.002

Contact behaviour before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands: evidence from contact surveys, 2016 to 2017 and 2020 to 2023

Autori: Jantien A Backer, Eric R A Vos, Gerco den Hartog, Cheyenne C E van Hagen, Hester E de Melker, Fiona R M van der Klis, Jacco Wallinga
Pubblicato in: Eurosurveillance, Numero 29, 2024, ISSN 1560-7917
Editore: European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2024.29.43.2400143

An Efficient Approach to Nowcasting the Time-varying Reproduction Number

Autori: Bryan Sumalinab, Oswaldo Gressani, Niel Hens and Christel Faes
Pubblicato in: Epidemiology, 2024, ISSN 1531-5487
Editore: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001744

Mobility-driven synthetic contact matrices as a scalable solution for real-time pandemic response modeling

Autori: Laura Di Domenico, Paolo Bosetti, Chiara E. Sabbatini, Lulla Opatowski, Vittoria Colizza
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 17, 2026, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-026-68557-3

A Comparison of Items and Constructs of Standardized Health-Related Quality of Life and Mental Well-Being Measures

Autori: Zhuxin Mao, Jonas Crèvecoeur, Koen Pepermans, Paul Kind, Thomas Neyens, Philippe Beutels
Pubblicato in: Value in Health, Numero 27, 2025, ISSN 1098-3015
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.JVAL.2024.01.005

Evaluating the COVID-19 responses of Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, February–June 2020: a counterfactual modeling study

Autori: Pieter de Boer, Fuminari Miura, Giske Lagerweij, Jacco Wallinga
Pubblicato in: BMC Medicine, Numero 23, 2025, ISSN 1741-7015
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1186/S12916-025-04071-5

Dengue virus importation risks in Africa: a modelling study

Autori: Jenicca Poongavanan, José Lourenço, Joseph L-H Tsui, Vittoria Colizza, Yajna Ramphal, Cheryl Baxter, Moritz U G Kraemer, Marcel Dunaiski, Tulio de Oliveira, Houriiyah Tegally
Pubblicato in: The Lancet Planetary Health, Numero 8, 2024, ISSN 2542-5196
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00272-9

Exploring influenza vaccination determinants through digital participatory surveillance

Autori: Kathleen Kelley, Nicolò Gozzi, Mattia Mazzoli, Daniela Paolotti
Pubblicato in: BMC Public Health, Numero 25, 2025, ISSN 1471-2458
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1186/S12889-025-22496-8

COVID-19-related health utility values and changes in COVID-19 patients and the general population: a scoping review

Autori: Mao, Zhuxin; Li, Xiao; Jit, Mark; Beutels, Philippe
Pubblicato in: Quality of life Research, 2024, ISSN 1573-2649
Editore: Springer International
DOI: 10.1007/s11136-023-03584-x

Estimates of epidemiological parameters for H5N1 influenza in humans: a rapid review

Autori: Jack Ward, Joshua W. Lambert, Timothy W. Russell, James M. Azam, Adam J. Kucharski, Sebastian Funk, Billy J. Quilty, Oswaldo Gressani, Niel Hens, W. John Edmunds
Pubblicato in: BMC Infectious Diseases, Numero 25, 2025, ISSN 1471-2334
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1186/S12879-025-11933-Z

The impact of quality-adjusted life years on evaluating COVID-19 mitigation strategies: lessons from age-specific vaccination roll-out and variants of concern in Belgium (2020-2022)

Autori: Lander Willem, Steven Abrams, Nicoals Franco, Pietro Coletti, Pieter J K Libin, James Wambua, Simon Couvreur, Emmanuel André, Tom Wenseleers, Zhuxin, Mao, Andrea Torneri, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels en Niel Hens
Pubblicato in: BioMed Central (BMC), 2024, ISSN 1471-2458
Editore: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-18576-w

Estimating Re and overdispersion in secondary cases from the size of identical sequence clusters of SARS-CoV-2

Autori: Emma B Hodcroft, Martin S Wohlfender, Richard A Neher, Julien Riou, Christian L Althaus
Pubblicato in: PLOS Computational Biology, Numero 21, 2025, ISSN 1553-7358
Editore: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PCBI.1012960

Epidemiological characteristics of monkeypox virus Clade Ib in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Autori: Cécile Kremer, Sabin Sabiti Nundu, Emmanuel Hasivirwe Vakaniaki, Isabel Brosius, Guy Mukari, Papy Munganga, Eugene Bangwen, Jean Claude Tshomba, Yves Mujula, Elise De Vos, Christophe Van Dijck, Sarah Houben, Oswaldo Gressani, Cris Kacita, Daniel Mukadi-Bamuleka, Tony Wawina-Bokalanga, Eddy Kinganda-Lusamaki, Adrienne Amuri-Aziza, Patrick Mutombo Lupola, Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum, Placide Mbala-Kingebeni, Laurens Liesenborghs, Niel Hens, Andrea Torneri
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 17, 2025, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-025-66875-6

Individual and neighborhood based socioeconomic factors relevant for contact behaviour and epidemic control

Autori: Laura Di Domenico, Martina L. Reichmuth, Christian L. Althaus
Pubblicato in: Communications Medicine, Numero 6, 2025, ISSN 2730-664X
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S43856-025-01282-Y

Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis

Autori: Leonardo Angeli, Constantino Caetano, Nicolas Franco, Pietro Coletti, Christel Faes, Geert Molenberghs, Phiippe Beutels, Steven Abrams, Lander Willem and Niel Hens
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-025-57087-Z

Modelling practices, data provisioning, sharing and dissemination needs for pandemic decision-making: a European survey-based modellers’ perspective, 2020 to 2022

Autori: Esther van Kleef, Wim Van Bortel, Elena Arsevska, Luca Busani, Simon Dellicour, Laura Di Domenico, Marius Gilbert, Sabine L van Elsland, Moritz UG Kraemer, Shengjie Lai, Philippe Lemey, Stefano Merler, Zoran Milosavljevic, Annapaola Rizzoli, Danijela Simic, Andrew J Tatem, Maguelonne Teisseire, William Wint, Vittoria Colizza, Chiara Poletto
Pubblicato in: Eurosurveillance, Numero 30, 2025, ISSN 1560-7917
Editore: European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2025.30.42.2500216

Dynamic Landscape of Mpox Importation Risks Driven by Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in 2022

Autori: Sung-mok Jung, Fuminari Miura, Hiroaki Murayama, Sebastian Funk, Jacco Wallinga, Justin Lessier and Akira Endo
Pubblicato in: Journal of Infectious diseases, 2023, ISSN 0022-1899
Editore: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/INFDIS/JIAE433

Genomic assessment of invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1

Autori: JOSEPH L.-H. TSUI, JOHN T. MCCRONE, BEN LAMBERT, SUMALI BAJAJ, RHYS P. D. INWARD, PAOLO BOSETTI , ROSARIO EVANS PENA, HOURIIYAH TEGALLY, VERITY HILL, ALEXANDER E. ZAREBSKI , THOMAS P. PEACOCK , LUYANG LIU, NEO WU , MEGAN DAVIS, ISAAC I. BOGOCH, KAMRAN KHA
Pubblicato in: Science, 2023, ISSN 1095-9203
Editore: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
DOI: 10.1126/science.adg6605

The epidemiology of pathogens with pandemic potential: A review of key parameters and clustering analysis

Autori: Jack Ward, Oswaldo Gressani, Sol Kim, Niel Hens, W. John Edmunds
Pubblicato in: Epidemics, Numero 54, 2026, ISSN 1755-4365
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.EPIDEM.2025.100882

Preserving friendships in school contacts: An algorithm to construct synthetic temporal networks for epidemic modelling

Autori: Lucille Calmon, Elisabetta Colosi, Giulia Bassignana, Alain Barrat, Vittoria Colizza
Pubblicato in: PLOS Computational Biology, Numero 20, 2024, ISSN 1553-7358
Editore: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PCBI.1012661

Repetition in social contacts: implications in modelling the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in pre-pandemic and pandemic settings

Autori: Neilshan Loedy, Jacco Wallinga, Niel Hens and Andrea Torneri
Pubblicato in: Proceedings of the royal society B Biological sciences, 2024, ISSN 1471-2954
Editore: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2024.1296

Who acquires infection from whom? A sensitivity analysis of transmission dynamics during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium

Autori: Leonardo Angeli, Constantino Pereira Caetano, Nicolas Franco, Steven Abrams, Pietro Coletti, Inneke Van Nieuwenhuyse, Sorin Pop and Niel Hens
Pubblicato in: Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2024, ISSN 1095-8541
Editore: Academic Press Inc.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2024.111721

Other (5)

Estimating Re and overdispersion in secondary cases from the size of identical sequence clusters of SARS-CoV-2

Autori: Emma B. Hodcroft, Martin S. Wohlfender, Richard A. Neher, Julien Riou and Christian L. Althaus
Pubblicato in: medRxiv, 2024
Editore: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL)
DOI: 10.1101/2024.05.26.24307940

Bayesian nowcasting with Laplacian-P-splines

Autori: Bryan Sumalinab, Oswaldo Gressani, Niel Hens and Christel Faes
Pubblicato in: medRxiv, 2022
Editore: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL)
DOI: 10.1101/2022.08.26.22279249

Preserving friendships in school contacts: an algorithm to construct synthetic temporal networks for epidemic modelling

Autori: Lucille Calmon, Elisabetta Colosi, Giulia Bassignana, Alain Barrat and VittoriaColizza
Pubblicato in: medRxiv, 2024
Editore: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL)
DOI: 10.1101/2024.08.20.24312288

Evaluating the COVID-19 responses of Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom, February-June 2020: A counterfactual modelling study

Autori: Pieter T. de Boer, Fuminari Miura, Giske R. Lagerweij and Jacco Wallinga
Pubblicato in: medRxiv, 2024
Editore: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL)
DOI: 10.1101/2024.07.05.24309992

From crisis support to COVID-19 pandemic preparedness

Autori: Sarah Vercruysse, Lisa Hermans, Anna Carnagie
Pubblicato in: Health Europe, 2023
Editore: Health Communications