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Into the Blue - Resolving past Arctic greenhouse climate

Project description

Studying the transformation of the Arctic Ocean

The Arctic Ocean, once blanketed in ice, is transforming fast. Warming has accelerated the decline of sea ice and the irreversible melting of Greenland’s glaciers. This ‘blue Arctic’ not only signifies a profound environmental shift, but also poses uncertain risks to global climate stability and societal well-being. Yet, our ability to predict these impacts remains hindered by gaps in Arctic geological data crucial for validating climate models. The ERC-funded i2B project is poised to revolutionise our understanding of past warm climates. Specifically, it aims to unlock critical insights into how an ice-free Arctic influences global climate dynamics. By integrating cutting-edge research across multiple disciplines, i2B seeks to provide essential data for more accurate climate projections and inform future policy decisions.

Objective

The Arctic Ocean is turning blue. Abrupt Arctic warming and amplification is driving rapid sea ice decline and irreversible deglaciation of Greenland. The already emerging, substantial consequences for the planet and society are intensifying and yet, model-based projections lack validatory consensus. To date, we cannot anticipate how a blue Arctic responds to and will amplify an increasingly warmer future climate, nor how it will impact the wider planet and society. Climate projections are inconclusive as we critically lack key Arctic geological archives that preserve the answers. This “Arctic Challenge” of global significance can only be addressed by investigating processes, consequences, and impact of past “greenhouse” (warmer than present) states. The timeliness of i2B is tied into retrieval of revolutionary, new Arctic geological archives of past warmth and key breakthroughs in climate model performance that will be integrated in a concerted framework beyond state-of-the-art.

i2B will deliver a ground-breaking, synergistic framework to answer the central question: “Why and what were the global ramifications of a “blue” (ice-free) Arctic during past warmer-than-present-climates?” This will be addressed through three connected, cross-disciplinary objectives integrating the expertise, knowledge, and skill-sets of three PIs and their different Arctic paleo-climate and modelling teams. i2B will quantify cryosphere (sea ice, land ice) change in a warmer world (O1) that will form the scientific basis for understanding the dynamics of Arctic cryosphere and ocean changes (O2), to enable quantitative assessment of the impact of Arctic change on ocean biosphere, climate extremes and society (O3) that will underpin future cryosphere-inclusive IPCC assessments. i2B will solve the “Arctic Challenge” with the synergistic multiplier of the 3 PIs` expert capabilities providing pioneering knowledge on how a blue Arctic impacts Earth’s climate during greenhouse climate states

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

Keywords

Programme(s)

Topic(s)

Funding Scheme

HORIZON-ERC-SYG - HORIZON ERC Synergy Grants

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Call for proposal

(opens in new window) ERC-2023-SyG

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Host institution

UNIVERSITETET I TROMSOE - NORGES ARKTISKE UNIVERSITET
Net EU contribution
€ 6 213 238,75
Address
HANSINE HANSENS VEG 14
9019 Tromso
Norway
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost
€ 6 213 238,75

Beneficiaries (4)