Reconstructing the environmental, biological, and societal drivers of plague outbreaks in Eurasia between 1300 and 1900 CE

Project Information

Synergy-Plague

Grant agreement ID: 101118880

DOI

10.3030/101118880

EC signature date 6 March 2024

Start date 1 April 2024

End date 31 March 2030

Funded under

• European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 8 381 928,00

EU contribution

€ 8 381 928,00

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITETET I OSLO
Norway

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (53)

Pseudogenization of the cntQ permease confers distinct yersinopine-metal uptake selectivity in Yersinia species

Author(s): Clémentine Laffont, Elizabeth Pradel, Laurent Ouerdane, Amélie Dewitte, Nicolas Oswaldo Gomez, Mathilde Tribout, Catherine Brutesco, Romé Voulhoux, Ryszard Lobinski, Florent Sebbane, Pascal Arnoux
Published in: BioMetals, 2026, ISSN 0966-0844
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1007/S10534-026-00816-8

Towards an evidence‐based and research‐driven restoration strategy for Britain's temperate rainforests

Author(s): Charles Norman, Jonathan Spencer, Ulf Büntgen
Published in: PLANTS, PEOPLE, PLANET, Issue 8, 2026, ISSN 2572-2611
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/PPP3.70113

Assessment of non-stationary tree growth responses in the forest-tundra and southern taiga of central Siberia

Author(s): Alexander V. Kirdyanov; Alberto Arzac; Anatoly S. Prokushkin; Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov; Alexander I. Bondarev; Pavel P. Silkin; Tatiana Bebchuk; Jan Esper; Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Issue 360, 2025, ISSN 1873-2240
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/J.AGRFORMET.2024.110296

Genetic diversity suggests two rather than three larch (Larix spp.) species across Siberia

Author(s): Marina A. Sheller, Ulf Büntgen, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Jan Esper, Maria A. Tabakova, Endre György Tóth, Vladimir V. Kukarskih, Alexey I. Kolmogorov, Aleksey A. Ibe, Tatyana V. Sukhikh, Tatiana Bebchuk, Nadezhda Devi, Oksana V. Sergeeva, Viktoria V. Agapova, Kristina V. Akulinina, Alberto Arzac
Published in: Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, Issue 71, 2026, ISSN 1433-8319
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.PPEES.2026.125931

Boreas

Author(s): Bebchuk, Tatiana; Büntgen, Ulf
Published in: Boreas, 2025, ISSN 0300-9483
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.17863/CAM.121612

Disruption of Drought Teleconnections Between ENSO‐Influenced Regions Around 1700 CE

Author(s): Max C. A. Torbenson; David W. Stahle; Edward R. Cook; Benjamin I. Cook; Ulf Büntgen; Feng Chen; Ernesto Tejedor; James H. Stagge; Miroslav Trnka; Dorian J. Burnette; Weipeng Yue; Jan Esper
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2025, ISSN 1944-8007
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2025GL115600

Arctic amplification causes earlier onset of seasonal tree growth in northeastern Siberia

Author(s): Alexander V Kirdyanov, Alexey I Kolmogorov, Stefan Kruse, Ulrike Herzschuh, Alberto Arzac, Lyudmila A Pestryakova, Anatoly N Nikolaev, Tatiana Bebchuk, Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 19, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/AD845F

China’s growing relevance in dendrochronology and paleoclimatology

Author(s): Linlin Gao; Tatiana Bebchuk; Xiaohua Gou; Ulf Büntgen
Published in: npj Climate Action, Issue 4, 2025, ISSN 2731-9814
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S44168-025-00294-7

Climate-driven changes in Mediterranean grain trade mitigated famine but introduced the Black Death to medieval Europe

Author(s): Martin Bauch, Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 6, 2025, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-025-02964-0

Methodological constrains of tree-ring stable isotope chronologies

Author(s): Tito Arosio, Max Torbenson, Tatiana Bebchuk, Alexander Kirdyanov, Jan Esper, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Masaki Sano, Otmar Urban, Kurt Nicolussi, Markus Leuenberger, Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Quaternary Science Reviews, Issue 340, 2024, ISSN 0277-3791
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2024.108861

The introduction and spread of plague in the Great Lakes region of East Africa, c.1700–1900: a palaeogenetic and social history

Author(s): Philip Slavin; Guillem Mas Fiol
Published in: Social History, Issue 15, ISSN 1470-1200
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Group
DOI: 10.1080/03071022.2026.2629160

Physiological meaning of bimodal tree growth-climate response patterns

Author(s): Ulf Büntgen; Jan Esper
Published in: International Journal of Biometeorology, Issue 68, 2024, ISSN 1432-1254
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1007/S00484-024-02706-5

2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years

Author(s): Jan Esper; Max Torbenson; Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Nature, Issue 631, 2024, ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-024-07512-Y

Integrating microclimate to understand vector development and disease patterns: challenges and lessons from plague in Madagascar’s Central Highlands

Author(s): Henry Gillies Fell, Joseph Bailey, Fanohinjanaharinirina Rasoamalala, Beza Ramasindrazana, Luke Shipley, Matthew Jones, Voahangy Andrianaivoarimanana, Katharina Kreppel, Nils Christian Stenseth, Ilya M. D. Maclean, Minoarisoa Rajerison, Adam C. Algar, Steve Atkinson
Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Issue 293, 2026, ISSN 1471-2954
Publisher: The Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSPB.2025.2496

Pan-alpine summer temperatures since 742 CE

Author(s): Jan Esper, Frederick Reinig, Max Torbenson, Edurne Martinez del Castillo, Marcel Kunz, Alberto Arzac, Marco Carrer, Feng Chen, Alper K. Kadioglu, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Ernesto Tejedor, Mirek Trnka, Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Dendrochronologia, Issue 94, 2026, ISSN 1125-7865
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.DENDRO.2025.126432

Proteins of the SubB family provide multiple mechanisms of serum resistance in <i>Yersinia pestis</i>

Author(s): François Pierre, Alexandre Baillez, Amélie Dewitte, Agustin Rolandelli, Florent Sebbane
Published in: Emerging Microbes &amp; Infections, Issue 14, 2025, ISSN 2222-1751
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2025.2493926

Taxus tree-ring chronologies from southern England reveal western European hydroclimate changes over the past three centuries

Author(s): Bebchuk, Tatiana; Moir, Andy K; Arosio, Tito; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Torbenson, Max CA; Krusic, Paul J; Hindson, Toby R; Howard, Heidi; Buchwal, Agata; Norman, Charles AP; Büntgen, Ulf
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 63, 2025, ISSN 1432-0894
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.17863/CAM.115598

Tree-Ring Chronologies from the Upper Treeline in the Russian Altai Mountains Reveal Strong and Stable Summer Temperature Signals

Author(s): Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Alberto Arzac, Alina A. Kirdyanova, Tito Arosio, Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov, Dmitry A. Ganyushkin, Paul N. Katjutin, Vladimir S. Myglan, Andrey N. Nazarov, Igor Y. Slyusarenko, Tatiana Bebchuk, Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Forests, Issue 15, 2024, ISSN 1999-4907
Publisher: MDPI AG
DOI: 10.17863/CAM.111120

Protocol for monitoring Yersinia pestis colonization of the proventriculus in the flea Xenopsylla cheopis using microscopy

Author(s): Amélie Dewitte; Elisabeth Werkmeister; Florent Sebbane; Sébastien Bontemps-Gallo
Published in: STAR Protocols, Issue Volume 6, Issue 2, 2025, ISSN 2666-1667
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/J.XPRO.2025.103853

Proxy record selection to refine Holocene temperature reconstruction in Europe

Author(s): Jan Esper, Edurne Martinez del Castillo, Manuel Chevalier, Tito Arosio, Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Climate Research, Issue 94, 2025, ISSN 0936-577X
Publisher: Inter-Research Science Center
DOI: 10.3354/CR01753

La peste à l’ère moderne, comprendre la transmission de la bactérie <i>Yersinia pestis</i> par les puces

Author(s): Florent Sebbane, Amélie Dewitte, Alexandre Baillez
Published in: médecine/sciences, Issue 41, 2025, ISSN 0767-0974
Publisher: EDP Sciences
DOI: 10.1051/MEDSCI/2025096

Highest Occurring Vascular Plants from Ladakh Provide Wood Anatomical Evidence for a Thermal Limitation of Cell Wall Lignification

Author(s): Ulf Büntgen, Veronika Jandova, Jiri Dolezal
Published in: Plant, Cell &amp; Environment, Issue 48, 2024, ISSN 0140-7791
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/PCE.15221

Russian dilemma for global arctic science

Author(s): Rees, Gareth; Büntgen, Ulf
Published in: Ambio, Issue 53, 2024, ISSN 1654-7209
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.17863/CAM.108574

The 2025 Blatten disaster in the Swiss Alps followed exceptional warming and highlights the vulnerability of people and heritage in glaciated landscapes

Author(s): Ulf Büntgen, Clive Oppenheimer, Daniel Farinotti, Tim Nahtz, Jan Esper
Published in: Communications Earth &amp; Environment, Issue 6, 2025, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-025-02994-8

Tree-Ring Stable Isotopes Reveal a Hydroclimate Shift in Eastern England Around 4.2 ka Ago

Author(s): Tatiana Bebchuk; Otmar Urban; Tito Arosio; Alexander Kirdyanov; Ronny Friedrich; Natálie Pernicová; Josef Čáslavský; Mirek Trnka; Alis Franсis; Mark Macklin; Jan Esper; Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 1944-8007
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL114313DIGITALOBJECTIDENTIFIER(DOI)

Epidemic evolutionarily stable strategies within an age-structured host population

Author(s): Andreas Eilersen; Ottar N. Bjørnstad; Ruiyun Li; Sebastian J. Schreiber; Zeyuan Pei; Nils Chr. Stenseth
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Issue 122 (12), 2025, ISSN 1091-6490
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
DOI: 10.3929/ETHZ-B-000729774

Introducing the concepts of range‐pinning and Allee effects to explain reduced temperature sensitivity of global treeline dynamics

Author(s): Ulf Büntgen, Audrey Palosse, Jiri Dolezal, Andrew Liebhold
Published in: Global Change Biology, Issue 30, 2024, ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.17288

Climate data for climate action

Author(s): Ulf Büntgen, Mirek Trnka, Mike Hulme, Jan Esper
Published in: npj Climate Action, Issue 4, 2025, ISSN 2731-9814
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S44168-025-00221-W

Recent heatwaves as a prelude to climate extremes in the western Mediterranean region

Author(s): Ernesto Tejedor; Gerardo Benito; Roberto Serrano-Notivoli; Fidel González-Rouco; Jan Esper; Ulf Büntgen
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 7, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S41612-024-00771-6

Publisher Correction: Climate data for climate action

Author(s): Ulf Büntgen; Mirek Trnka; Mike Hulme; Jan Esper
Published in: npj Climate Action, Issue 4, 2025, ISSN 2731-9814
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S44168-025-00223-8

Tree-ring stable isotopes from the European Alps reveal long-term summer drying over the Holocene

Author(s): Tito Arosio; Markus Leuenberger; Kurt Nicolussi; Jan Esper; Paul J. Krusic; Tatiana Bebchuk; Willy Tegel; Albert Hafner; Alexander Kirdyanov; Christian Schlüchter; Frederick Reinig; Francesco Muschitiello; Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Science Advances, Issue Vol 11, Issue 14, 2025, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.48620/87327

Potential and Limitations of Strontium Isotopic Fingerprinting in Wood

Author(s): Ulf Büntgen, Filip Oulehle, Clive Oppenheimer, Jan Svoboda, Yulia V. Erban Kochergina, Michal Rybníček, Tomas Kolar, Martin Novák, Michael Kempf, Mirek Trnka
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 52, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2025GL117556

The plague of Egypt crossing the Red Sea: The arrival and focalisation of plague in the southern Red Sea region in the 1430s

Author(s): Philip Slavin
Published in: Journal of Global History, 2026, ISSN 1740-0228
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
DOI: 10.1017/S1740022826100539

Retracing the path of evolution: polymorphisms of <i>aspA</i> codon 363 shape the fitness of <i>Yersinia pestis</i>

Author(s): Kai Song, Ruichen Lv, Leiming Shen, Yarong Wu, Xiuwei Qian, Yiming Cui, Yumeng Wei, Yanbing Li, Yanting Zhao, Wenwu Yao, Yafang Tan, Yanping Han, Yujing Bi, Zongmin Du, Florent Sebbane, Yujun Cui, Ruifu Yang, Yajun Song
Published in: Emerging Microbes &amp; Infections, Issue 14, 2025, ISSN 2222-1751
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2025.2532700

Multi-Proxy Tree-Ring Dating during the Younger Dryas

Author(s): Frederick Reinig, Adam Sookdeo, Jan Esper, Kerstin Treydte, Lukas Wacker, Giulia Guidobaldi, Daniel Nievergelt, Matthias Saurer, Michael Friedrich, Gerhard Helle, Bernd Kromer, Maren Pauly, Willy Tegel, Anne Verstege, Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Tree-Ring Research, Issue 81, 2025, ISSN 1536-1098
Publisher: Tree-Ring Society
DOI: 10.3959/TRR2023-1

Droughts and conflicts during the late Roman period

Author(s): Norman, C; Schwinden, L; Krusic, P; Rzepecki, A; Bebchuk, T; Büntgen, U
Published in: Climatic Change, Issue 178, 2025, ISSN 1573-1480
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.17863/CAM.117340

Warming-induced positive age trends challenge MXD detrending

Author(s): null Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen, Max.C.A. Torbenson
Published in: Dendrochronologia, Issue 97, 2026, ISSN 1125-7865
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.DENDRO.2026.126529

The palaeoenvironmental potential of bioarchaeological isotope data

Author(s): Margaux L. C. Depaermentier; Michael Kempf; Marc Vander Linden; Kate Britton; Richard Madgwick; Ulf Büntgen; Dorothée G. Drucker; Jennifer R. Jones; Christophe Snoeck; Rhiannon E. Stevens
Published in: Communications Earth &amp; Environment, Issue 6, 2025, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-025-02507-7

Arctic driftwood proposal for durable carbon removal

Author(s): Ulf Büntgen, Clive Oppenheimer, Mirek Trnka, Michael Kempf, Ian Holman, Tito Arosio, Tatiana Bebchuk, Jan Esper
Published in: npj Climate Action, Issue 5, 2026, ISSN 2731-9814
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S44168-025-00327-1

The need for high-resolution paleoclimate research

Author(s): Ulf Büntgen, Jan Esper
Published in: Dialogues on Climate Change, Issue 2, 2026, ISSN 2976-8659
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/29768659241305959

Plague in Small Mammals From an Endemic Focus of the Malagasy Central Highlands: A Longitudinal Survey With a Special Reference on Black Rats (<i>Rattus rattus</i>)

Author(s): Mamionah Noro Jully Parany, Nils Christian Stenseth, Fanohinjanaharinirina Rasoamalala, Soanandrasana Rahelinirina, Soloandry Rahajandraibe, Voahangy Andrianaivoarimanana, Gauthier Dobigny, Olivier Gorgé, Eric Valade, Henry Fell, Beza Ramasindrazana, Minoarisoa Rajerison
Published in: Integrative Zoology, 2025, ISSN 1749-4877
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/1749-4877.12944

Tree-ring width and blue intensity chronologies of three co-existing conifer species from the Russian Altai mountains reveal different climate signals

Author(s): Alberto Arzac; Alexander V. Kirdyanov; Viktoria V. Agapova; Alina A. Kirdyanova; Daniel Diaz de Quijano; Nikolay I. Bykov; Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Dendrochronologia, Issue 93, 2025, ISSN 1612-0051
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/J.DENDRO.2025.126382

Consideration of Abies cilicica for central European reforestation

Author(s): Ulf Büntgen, Alper Kaan Kadioglu, Kasia Charcinska, Edurne Martinez del Castillo, Alexis Arizpe, Tatiana Bebchuk, Jan Esper, Mirek Trnka, Clive Oppenheimer, Nesibe Köse, Ünal Akkemik, Hüseyin Tuncay Güner
Published in: Forest Ecology and Management, Issue 597, 2026, ISSN 0378-1127
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.FORECO.2025.123120

The importance of distinguishing climate science from climate activism

Author(s): Ulf Büntgen
Published in: npj Climate Action, Issue 3, 2024, ISSN 2731-9814
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S44168-024-00126-0

Warming-induced shift in the climate response of Scotland’s temperate rainforests

Author(s): Charles Norman, Frederick Märker, Alexis Arizpe, Alper Kaan Kadioglu, Zulfiyor Bakhtiyorov, Tatiana Bebchuk, Rob Wilson, Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Forest Ecology and Management, Issue 615, 2026, ISSN 0378-1127
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.FORECO.2026.123840

Response to Foxhall Forbes et al. (2026) “Drought, conflict and the use of historical data and methodologies in interdisciplinary paleoclimatic research”

Author(s): Charles Norman, Lothar Schwinden, Paul Krusic, Andreas Rzepecki, Tatiana Bebchuk, Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Climatic Change, Issue 179, 2026, ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1007/S10584-026-04113-8

Author Correction: 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years

Author(s): Jan Esper, Max Torbenson, Ulf Büntgen
Published in: Nature, Issue 641, 2025, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-025-09095-8

Plasma albumin contributes to early Yersinia pestis survival at the onset of flea infection

Author(s): Amélie Dewitte; Florent Sebbane; Sébastien Bontemps-Gallo
Published in: PLOS Pathogens, 2026, ISSN 1553-7374
Publisher: PLOS
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PPAT.1014022

Covariance and climate signals among state-of-the-art tree-ring proxies

Author(s): Römer, Philipp; Wieland, Anna; Torbenson, Max C.A.; Reinig, Frederick; Ziaco, Emanuele; Frigo, Davide; Greule, Markus; Urban, Otmar; Čáslavský, Josef; Pernicová, Natálie; Trnka, Miroslav; Carrer, Marco; Büntgen, Ulf; Keppler, Frank; Esper, Jan
Published in: Quaternary Science Reviews, 2025, ISSN 1873-457X
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2025.109270

Volcanoes, Climate, and Society

Author(s): Büntgen, Ulf; Cosmo, Nicola; Esper, Jan; Frachetti, Michael; Khalidi, Lamya; Mauelshagen, Franz; Rohland, Eleonora; Oppenheimer, Clive
Published in: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1545-4495
Publisher: Annual Reviews
DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-EARTH-032524-013254

An absolutely dated mid-Holocene English yew chronology offers new opportunities for archaeological and palaeoenvironmental research

Author(s): Bebchuk, Tatiana; Davies, Darren; Loader, Neil J; Urban, Otmar; Arosio, Tito; Wacker, Lukas; Pernicová, Natálie; Čáslavský, Josef; Trnka, Miroslav; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Brown, David; Esper, Jan; Oppenheimer, Clive; Büntgen, Ulf
Published in: The Holocene, 2026, ISSN 1477-0911
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.3929/ETHZ-C-000795884

Exploring temperature-dependent transcriptomic adaptations in Yersinia pestis using direct cDNA sequencing by Oxford Nanopore Technologies

Author(s): Brandon Robin, Alexandre Baillez, Servane Le Guillouzer, Cécile Lecoeur, Florent Sebbane, Sébastien Bontemps-Gallo
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 15, 2025, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-025-05662-1

Commentary on Seersholm Et al.: <i>Yersinia pestis</i> Infection Is Not Synonymous With Deadly Plague in Neolithic Scandinavia

Author(s): Hamadou Oumarou Hama, Michel Drancourt, Philip Slavin, Florent Sebbane
Published in: American Journal of Biological Anthropology, Issue 189, 2026, ISSN 2692-7691
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/AJPA.70200