Reconstructing the environmental, biological, and societal drivers of plague outbreaks in Eurasia between 1300 and 1900 CE

Informazioni relative al progetto

Synergy-Plague

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: 101118880

DOI

10.3030/101118880

Data della firma CE 6 Marzo 2024

Data di avvio 1 Aprile 2024

Data di completamento 31 Marzo 2030

Finanziato da

• European Research Council (ERC)

Costo totale

€ 8 381 928,00

Contributo UE

€ 8 381 928,00

Coordinato da

UNIVERSITETET I OSLO
Norway

CORDIS fornisce collegamenti ai risultati finali pubblici e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti ORIZZONTE.

I link ai risultati e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti del 7° PQ, così come i link ad alcuni tipi di risultati specifici come dataset e software, sono recuperati dinamicamente da .OpenAIRE .

Pubblicazioni

Peer reviewed articles (53)

Pseudogenization of the cntQ permease confers distinct yersinopine-metal uptake selectivity in Yersinia species

Autori: Clémentine Laffont, Elizabeth Pradel, Laurent Ouerdane, Amélie Dewitte, Nicolas Oswaldo Gomez, Mathilde Tribout, Catherine Brutesco, Romé Voulhoux, Ryszard Lobinski, Florent Sebbane, Pascal Arnoux
Pubblicato in: BioMetals, 2026, ISSN 0966-0844
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1007/S10534-026-00816-8

Towards an evidence‐based and research‐driven restoration strategy for Britain's temperate rainforests

Autori: Charles Norman, Jonathan Spencer, Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: PLANTS, PEOPLE, PLANET, Numero 8, 2026, ISSN 2572-2611
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/PPP3.70113

Assessment of non-stationary tree growth responses in the forest-tundra and southern taiga of central Siberia

Autori: Alexander V. Kirdyanov; Alberto Arzac; Anatoly S. Prokushkin; Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov; Alexander I. Bondarev; Pavel P. Silkin; Tatiana Bebchuk; Jan Esper; Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Numero 360, 2025, ISSN 1873-2240
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/J.AGRFORMET.2024.110296

Genetic diversity suggests two rather than three larch (Larix spp.) species across Siberia

Autori: Marina A. Sheller, Ulf Büntgen, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Jan Esper, Maria A. Tabakova, Endre György Tóth, Vladimir V. Kukarskih, Alexey I. Kolmogorov, Aleksey A. Ibe, Tatyana V. Sukhikh, Tatiana Bebchuk, Nadezhda Devi, Oksana V. Sergeeva, Viktoria V. Agapova, Kristina V. Akulinina, Alberto Arzac
Pubblicato in: Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, Numero 71, 2026, ISSN 1433-8319
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.PPEES.2026.125931

Boreas

Autori: Bebchuk, Tatiana; Büntgen, Ulf
Pubblicato in: Boreas, 2025, ISSN 0300-9483
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.17863/CAM.121612

Disruption of Drought Teleconnections Between ENSO‐Influenced Regions Around 1700 CE

Autori: Max C. A. Torbenson; David W. Stahle; Edward R. Cook; Benjamin I. Cook; Ulf Büntgen; Feng Chen; Ernesto Tejedor; James H. Stagge; Miroslav Trnka; Dorian J. Burnette; Weipeng Yue; Jan Esper
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2025, ISSN 1944-8007
Editore: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2025GL115600

Arctic amplification causes earlier onset of seasonal tree growth in northeastern Siberia

Autori: Alexander V Kirdyanov, Alexey I Kolmogorov, Stefan Kruse, Ulrike Herzschuh, Alberto Arzac, Lyudmila A Pestryakova, Anatoly N Nikolaev, Tatiana Bebchuk, Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 19, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/AD845F

China’s growing relevance in dendrochronology and paleoclimatology

Autori: Linlin Gao; Tatiana Bebchuk; Xiaohua Gou; Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: npj Climate Action, Numero 4, 2025, ISSN 2731-9814
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S44168-025-00294-7

Climate-driven changes in Mediterranean grain trade mitigated famine but introduced the Black Death to medieval Europe

Autori: Martin Bauch, Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Numero 6, 2025, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-025-02964-0

Methodological constrains of tree-ring stable isotope chronologies

Autori: Tito Arosio, Max Torbenson, Tatiana Bebchuk, Alexander Kirdyanov, Jan Esper, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Masaki Sano, Otmar Urban, Kurt Nicolussi, Markus Leuenberger, Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Quaternary Science Reviews, Numero 340, 2024, ISSN 0277-3791
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2024.108861

The introduction and spread of plague in the Great Lakes region of East Africa, c.1700–1900: a palaeogenetic and social history

Autori: Philip Slavin; Guillem Mas Fiol
Pubblicato in: Social History, Numero 15, ISSN 1470-1200
Editore: Taylor & Francis Group
DOI: 10.1080/03071022.2026.2629160

Physiological meaning of bimodal tree growth-climate response patterns

Autori: Ulf Büntgen; Jan Esper
Pubblicato in: International Journal of Biometeorology, Numero 68, 2024, ISSN 1432-1254
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1007/S00484-024-02706-5

2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years

Autori: Jan Esper; Max Torbenson; Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Nature, Numero 631, 2024, ISSN 1476-4687
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-024-07512-Y

Integrating microclimate to understand vector development and disease patterns: challenges and lessons from plague in Madagascar’s Central Highlands

Autori: Henry Gillies Fell, Joseph Bailey, Fanohinjanaharinirina Rasoamalala, Beza Ramasindrazana, Luke Shipley, Matthew Jones, Voahangy Andrianaivoarimanana, Katharina Kreppel, Nils Christian Stenseth, Ilya M. D. Maclean, Minoarisoa Rajerison, Adam C. Algar, Steve Atkinson
Pubblicato in: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Numero 293, 2026, ISSN 1471-2954
Editore: The Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSPB.2025.2496

Pan-alpine summer temperatures since 742 CE

Autori: Jan Esper, Frederick Reinig, Max Torbenson, Edurne Martinez del Castillo, Marcel Kunz, Alberto Arzac, Marco Carrer, Feng Chen, Alper K. Kadioglu, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Ernesto Tejedor, Mirek Trnka, Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Dendrochronologia, Numero 94, 2026, ISSN 1125-7865
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.DENDRO.2025.126432

Proteins of the SubB family provide multiple mechanisms of serum resistance in <i>Yersinia pestis</i>

Autori: François Pierre, Alexandre Baillez, Amélie Dewitte, Agustin Rolandelli, Florent Sebbane
Pubblicato in: Emerging Microbes &amp; Infections, Numero 14, 2025, ISSN 2222-1751
Editore: Informa UK Limited
DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2025.2493926

Taxus tree-ring chronologies from southern England reveal western European hydroclimate changes over the past three centuries

Autori: Bebchuk, Tatiana; Moir, Andy K; Arosio, Tito; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Torbenson, Max CA; Krusic, Paul J; Hindson, Toby R; Howard, Heidi; Buchwal, Agata; Norman, Charles AP; Büntgen, Ulf
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 63, 2025, ISSN 1432-0894
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.17863/CAM.115598

Tree-Ring Chronologies from the Upper Treeline in the Russian Altai Mountains Reveal Strong and Stable Summer Temperature Signals

Autori: Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Alberto Arzac, Alina A. Kirdyanova, Tito Arosio, Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov, Dmitry A. Ganyushkin, Paul N. Katjutin, Vladimir S. Myglan, Andrey N. Nazarov, Igor Y. Slyusarenko, Tatiana Bebchuk, Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Forests, Numero 15, 2024, ISSN 1999-4907
Editore: MDPI AG
DOI: 10.17863/CAM.111120

Protocol for monitoring Yersinia pestis colonization of the proventriculus in the flea Xenopsylla cheopis using microscopy

Autori: Amélie Dewitte; Elisabeth Werkmeister; Florent Sebbane; Sébastien Bontemps-Gallo
Pubblicato in: STAR Protocols, Numero Volume 6, Numero 2, 2025, ISSN 2666-1667
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/J.XPRO.2025.103853

Proxy record selection to refine Holocene temperature reconstruction in Europe

Autori: Jan Esper, Edurne Martinez del Castillo, Manuel Chevalier, Tito Arosio, Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Climate Research, Numero 94, 2025, ISSN 0936-577X
Editore: Inter-Research Science Center
DOI: 10.3354/CR01753

La peste à l’ère moderne, comprendre la transmission de la bactérie <i>Yersinia pestis</i> par les puces

Autori: Florent Sebbane, Amélie Dewitte, Alexandre Baillez
Pubblicato in: médecine/sciences, Numero 41, 2025, ISSN 0767-0974
Editore: EDP Sciences
DOI: 10.1051/MEDSCI/2025096

Highest Occurring Vascular Plants from Ladakh Provide Wood Anatomical Evidence for a Thermal Limitation of Cell Wall Lignification

Autori: Ulf Büntgen, Veronika Jandova, Jiri Dolezal
Pubblicato in: Plant, Cell &amp; Environment, Numero 48, 2024, ISSN 0140-7791
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/PCE.15221

Russian dilemma for global arctic science

Autori: Rees, Gareth; Büntgen, Ulf
Pubblicato in: Ambio, Numero 53, 2024, ISSN 1654-7209
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.17863/CAM.108574

The 2025 Blatten disaster in the Swiss Alps followed exceptional warming and highlights the vulnerability of people and heritage in glaciated landscapes

Autori: Ulf Büntgen, Clive Oppenheimer, Daniel Farinotti, Tim Nahtz, Jan Esper
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth &amp; Environment, Numero 6, 2025, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-025-02994-8

Tree-Ring Stable Isotopes Reveal a Hydroclimate Shift in Eastern England Around 4.2 ka Ago

Autori: Tatiana Bebchuk; Otmar Urban; Tito Arosio; Alexander Kirdyanov; Ronny Friedrich; Natálie Pernicová; Josef Čáslavský; Mirek Trnka; Alis Franсis; Mark Macklin; Jan Esper; Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 1944-8007
Editore: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL114313DIGITALOBJECTIDENTIFIER(DOI)

Epidemic evolutionarily stable strategies within an age-structured host population

Autori: Andreas Eilersen; Ottar N. Bjørnstad; Ruiyun Li; Sebastian J. Schreiber; Zeyuan Pei; Nils Chr. Stenseth
Pubblicato in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Numero 122 (12), 2025, ISSN 1091-6490
Editore: National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
DOI: 10.3929/ETHZ-B-000729774

Introducing the concepts of range‐pinning and Allee effects to explain reduced temperature sensitivity of global treeline dynamics

Autori: Ulf Büntgen, Audrey Palosse, Jiri Dolezal, Andrew Liebhold
Pubblicato in: Global Change Biology, Numero 30, 2024, ISSN 1354-1013
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.17288

Climate data for climate action

Autori: Ulf Büntgen, Mirek Trnka, Mike Hulme, Jan Esper
Pubblicato in: npj Climate Action, Numero 4, 2025, ISSN 2731-9814
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S44168-025-00221-W

Recent heatwaves as a prelude to climate extremes in the western Mediterranean region

Autori: Ernesto Tejedor; Gerardo Benito; Roberto Serrano-Notivoli; Fidel González-Rouco; Jan Esper; Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numero 7, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S41612-024-00771-6

Publisher Correction: Climate data for climate action

Autori: Ulf Büntgen; Mirek Trnka; Mike Hulme; Jan Esper
Pubblicato in: npj Climate Action, Numero 4, 2025, ISSN 2731-9814
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S44168-025-00223-8

Tree-ring stable isotopes from the European Alps reveal long-term summer drying over the Holocene

Autori: Tito Arosio; Markus Leuenberger; Kurt Nicolussi; Jan Esper; Paul J. Krusic; Tatiana Bebchuk; Willy Tegel; Albert Hafner; Alexander Kirdyanov; Christian Schlüchter; Frederick Reinig; Francesco Muschitiello; Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Science Advances, Numero Vol 11, Numero 14, 2025, ISSN 2375-2548
Editore: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.48620/87327

Potential and Limitations of Strontium Isotopic Fingerprinting in Wood

Autori: Ulf Büntgen, Filip Oulehle, Clive Oppenheimer, Jan Svoboda, Yulia V. Erban Kochergina, Michal Rybníček, Tomas Kolar, Martin Novák, Michael Kempf, Mirek Trnka
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 52, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2025GL117556

The plague of Egypt crossing the Red Sea: The arrival and focalisation of plague in the southern Red Sea region in the 1430s

Autori: Philip Slavin
Pubblicato in: Journal of Global History, 2026, ISSN 1740-0228
Editore: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
DOI: 10.1017/S1740022826100539

Retracing the path of evolution: polymorphisms of <i>aspA</i> codon 363 shape the fitness of <i>Yersinia pestis</i>

Autori: Kai Song, Ruichen Lv, Leiming Shen, Yarong Wu, Xiuwei Qian, Yiming Cui, Yumeng Wei, Yanbing Li, Yanting Zhao, Wenwu Yao, Yafang Tan, Yanping Han, Yujing Bi, Zongmin Du, Florent Sebbane, Yujun Cui, Ruifu Yang, Yajun Song
Pubblicato in: Emerging Microbes &amp; Infections, Numero 14, 2025, ISSN 2222-1751
Editore: Informa UK Limited
DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2025.2532700

Multi-Proxy Tree-Ring Dating during the Younger Dryas

Autori: Frederick Reinig, Adam Sookdeo, Jan Esper, Kerstin Treydte, Lukas Wacker, Giulia Guidobaldi, Daniel Nievergelt, Matthias Saurer, Michael Friedrich, Gerhard Helle, Bernd Kromer, Maren Pauly, Willy Tegel, Anne Verstege, Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Tree-Ring Research, Numero 81, 2025, ISSN 1536-1098
Editore: Tree-Ring Society
DOI: 10.3959/TRR2023-1

Droughts and conflicts during the late Roman period

Autori: Norman, C; Schwinden, L; Krusic, P; Rzepecki, A; Bebchuk, T; Büntgen, U
Pubblicato in: Climatic Change, Numero 178, 2025, ISSN 1573-1480
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.17863/CAM.117340

Warming-induced positive age trends challenge MXD detrending

Autori: null Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen, Max.C.A. Torbenson
Pubblicato in: Dendrochronologia, Numero 97, 2026, ISSN 1125-7865
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.DENDRO.2026.126529

The palaeoenvironmental potential of bioarchaeological isotope data

Autori: Margaux L. C. Depaermentier; Michael Kempf; Marc Vander Linden; Kate Britton; Richard Madgwick; Ulf Büntgen; Dorothée G. Drucker; Jennifer R. Jones; Christophe Snoeck; Rhiannon E. Stevens
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth &amp; Environment, Numero 6, 2025, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-025-02507-7

Arctic driftwood proposal for durable carbon removal

Autori: Ulf Büntgen, Clive Oppenheimer, Mirek Trnka, Michael Kempf, Ian Holman, Tito Arosio, Tatiana Bebchuk, Jan Esper
Pubblicato in: npj Climate Action, Numero 5, 2026, ISSN 2731-9814
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S44168-025-00327-1

The need for high-resolution paleoclimate research

Autori: Ulf Büntgen, Jan Esper
Pubblicato in: Dialogues on Climate Change, Numero 2, 2026, ISSN 2976-8659
Editore: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/29768659241305959

Plague in Small Mammals From an Endemic Focus of the Malagasy Central Highlands: A Longitudinal Survey With a Special Reference on Black Rats (<i>Rattus rattus</i>)

Autori: Mamionah Noro Jully Parany, Nils Christian Stenseth, Fanohinjanaharinirina Rasoamalala, Soanandrasana Rahelinirina, Soloandry Rahajandraibe, Voahangy Andrianaivoarimanana, Gauthier Dobigny, Olivier Gorgé, Eric Valade, Henry Fell, Beza Ramasindrazana, Minoarisoa Rajerison
Pubblicato in: Integrative Zoology, 2025, ISSN 1749-4877
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/1749-4877.12944

Tree-ring width and blue intensity chronologies of three co-existing conifer species from the Russian Altai mountains reveal different climate signals

Autori: Alberto Arzac; Alexander V. Kirdyanov; Viktoria V. Agapova; Alina A. Kirdyanova; Daniel Diaz de Quijano; Nikolay I. Bykov; Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Dendrochronologia, Numero 93, 2025, ISSN 1612-0051
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/J.DENDRO.2025.126382

Consideration of Abies cilicica for central European reforestation

Autori: Ulf Büntgen, Alper Kaan Kadioglu, Kasia Charcinska, Edurne Martinez del Castillo, Alexis Arizpe, Tatiana Bebchuk, Jan Esper, Mirek Trnka, Clive Oppenheimer, Nesibe Köse, Ünal Akkemik, Hüseyin Tuncay Güner
Pubblicato in: Forest Ecology and Management, Numero 597, 2026, ISSN 0378-1127
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.FORECO.2025.123120

The importance of distinguishing climate science from climate activism

Autori: Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: npj Climate Action, Numero 3, 2024, ISSN 2731-9814
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S44168-024-00126-0

Warming-induced shift in the climate response of Scotland’s temperate rainforests

Autori: Charles Norman, Frederick Märker, Alexis Arizpe, Alper Kaan Kadioglu, Zulfiyor Bakhtiyorov, Tatiana Bebchuk, Rob Wilson, Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Forest Ecology and Management, Numero 615, 2026, ISSN 0378-1127
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.FORECO.2026.123840

Response to Foxhall Forbes et al. (2026) “Drought, conflict and the use of historical data and methodologies in interdisciplinary paleoclimatic research”

Autori: Charles Norman, Lothar Schwinden, Paul Krusic, Andreas Rzepecki, Tatiana Bebchuk, Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Climatic Change, Numero 179, 2026, ISSN 0165-0009
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1007/S10584-026-04113-8

Author Correction: 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years

Autori: Jan Esper, Max Torbenson, Ulf Büntgen
Pubblicato in: Nature, Numero 641, 2025, ISSN 0028-0836
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-025-09095-8

Plasma albumin contributes to early Yersinia pestis survival at the onset of flea infection

Autori: Amélie Dewitte; Florent Sebbane; Sébastien Bontemps-Gallo
Pubblicato in: PLOS Pathogens, 2026, ISSN 1553-7374
Editore: PLOS
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PPAT.1014022

Covariance and climate signals among state-of-the-art tree-ring proxies

Autori: Römer, Philipp; Wieland, Anna; Torbenson, Max C.A.; Reinig, Frederick; Ziaco, Emanuele; Frigo, Davide; Greule, Markus; Urban, Otmar; Čáslavský, Josef; Pernicová, Natálie; Trnka, Miroslav; Carrer, Marco; Büntgen, Ulf; Keppler, Frank; Esper, Jan
Pubblicato in: Quaternary Science Reviews, 2025, ISSN 1873-457X
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2025.109270

Volcanoes, Climate, and Society

Autori: Büntgen, Ulf; Cosmo, Nicola; Esper, Jan; Frachetti, Michael; Khalidi, Lamya; Mauelshagen, Franz; Rohland, Eleonora; Oppenheimer, Clive
Pubblicato in: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1545-4495
Editore: Annual Reviews
DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-EARTH-032524-013254

An absolutely dated mid-Holocene English yew chronology offers new opportunities for archaeological and palaeoenvironmental research

Autori: Bebchuk, Tatiana; Davies, Darren; Loader, Neil J; Urban, Otmar; Arosio, Tito; Wacker, Lukas; Pernicová, Natálie; Čáslavský, Josef; Trnka, Miroslav; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Brown, David; Esper, Jan; Oppenheimer, Clive; Büntgen, Ulf
Pubblicato in: The Holocene, 2026, ISSN 1477-0911
Editore: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.3929/ETHZ-C-000795884

Exploring temperature-dependent transcriptomic adaptations in Yersinia pestis using direct cDNA sequencing by Oxford Nanopore Technologies

Autori: Brandon Robin, Alexandre Baillez, Servane Le Guillouzer, Cécile Lecoeur, Florent Sebbane, Sébastien Bontemps-Gallo
Pubblicato in: Scientific Reports, Numero 15, 2025, ISSN 2045-2322
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-025-05662-1

Commentary on Seersholm Et al.: <i>Yersinia pestis</i> Infection Is Not Synonymous With Deadly Plague in Neolithic Scandinavia

Autori: Hamadou Oumarou Hama, Michel Drancourt, Philip Slavin, Florent Sebbane
Pubblicato in: American Journal of Biological Anthropology, Numero 189, 2026, ISSN 2692-7691
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/AJPA.70200