Project description
A closer look at human-driven climate tipping points
Anthropogenic stressors, including rising temperatures and land-use change, pose unprecedented threats to the Earth’s climate, ecosystems, and society. In this context, the EU-funded ClimTip project will focus on the precautionary principle. Specifically, it delves into the mechanisms, impacts, and risks associated with potential irreversible tipping points. This initiative advances our understanding of Earth system tipping elements (TEs) through paleoclimate, observational, and model data. ClimTip aims to identify safe operating spaces, critical thresholds, and rates. It provides a unique climate service with high-resolution data for global tipping events. The project's comprehensive approach promises to shape climate strategies aligned with the Paris Agreement and the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030.
Objective
The likelihood of large-scale Earth system tipping events under ongoing anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. In view of the possible irreversibility associated with such events and the potentially catastrophic global consequences on climate, ecosystems, and society, the precautionary principle demands thorough investigation of the underlying mechanisms, compound or cascading impacts, and associated risks. ClimTip will substantially advance the process understanding of possible Earth system Tipping Elements (TEs). It will provide the methodological framework for characterising and constraining potential TEs from paleoclimate, observational and model data, for identifying unknown tipping potential from observations and models, and for quantifying resilience and changes thereof in climate and ecosystems, including early-warning of forthcoming transitions. Earth system models (ESMs) are the primary tool for projecting the risk of large-scale tipping events and ClimTip will substantially improve their representation of suggested TEs. This will enable the identification of safe operating spaces for a stable Earth system by characterising key Earth system TEs in terms of their critical thresholds and rates, hysteresis and overshoot potential via empirical data and ESMs, taking into account the associated uncertainties. As a unique climate service, ClimTip will provide global high-resolution bias-corrected climate fields for large-scale tipping events based on storylines of tipping in comprehensive ESMs. The associated impacts on climate, ecosystems, biodiversity, agriculture, society and economy will be assessed globally and put in relation with the Paris Agreement and the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030. ClimTip will deliver a comprehensive and precise knowledge basis for tipping-aware risk assessment and adaptation and mitigation strategies. Results will be disseminated to the scientific community, general public, and targeted audiences including IPBES and IPCC.
Fields of science
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencespalaeontologypaleoclimatology
- natural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystems
- agricultural sciencesagriculture, forestry, and fisheriesagriculture
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencessoftwaresoftware applicationssimulation software
Programme(s)
Funding Scheme
HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation ActionsCoordinator
80333 Muenchen
Germany
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Participants (11)
80538 Munchen
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27570 Bremerhaven
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75230 Paris
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80539 Muenchen
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14473 Potsdam
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28040 Madrid
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1165 Kobenhavn
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751 05 Uppsala
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3584 CS Utrecht
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75794 Paris
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50121 Florence
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Partners (9)
Partner organisations contribute to the implementation of the action, but do not sign the Grant Agreement.
3012 Bern
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Partner organisations contribute to the implementation of the action, but do not sign the Grant Agreement.
100875 BEIJING
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Partner organisations contribute to the implementation of the action, but do not sign the Grant Agreement.
20433 Washington Dc
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Partner organisations contribute to the implementation of the action, but do not sign the Grant Agreement.
RG6 6AH Reading
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Partner organisations contribute to the implementation of the action, but do not sign the Grant Agreement.
EX4 4QJ Exeter
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Partner organisations contribute to the implementation of the action, but do not sign the Grant Agreement.
EX1 3PB Exeter
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Partner organisations contribute to the implementation of the action, but do not sign the Grant Agreement.
WC2A 2AE London
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Partner organisations contribute to the implementation of the action, but do not sign the Grant Agreement.
LE1 7RH Leicester
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Partner organisations contribute to the implementation of the action, but do not sign the Grant Agreement.
9019 Tromso
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