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Climate Tipping Points: Uncertainty-aware quantification of Earth system tipping potential from observations and models and assessment of associated climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic impacts

Project description

A closer look at human-driven climate tipping points

Anthropogenic stressors, including rising temperatures and land-use change, pose unprecedented threats to the Earth’s climate, ecosystems, and society. In this context, the EU-funded ClimTip project will focus on the precautionary principle. Specifically, it delves into the mechanisms, impacts, and risks associated with potential irreversible tipping points. This initiative advances our understanding of Earth system tipping elements (TEs) through paleoclimate, observational, and model data. ClimTip aims to identify safe operating spaces, critical thresholds, and rates. It provides a unique climate service with high-resolution data for global tipping events. The project's comprehensive approach promises to shape climate strategies aligned with the Paris Agreement and the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030.

Objective

The likelihood of large-scale Earth system tipping events under ongoing anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. In view of the possible irreversibility associated with such events and the potentially catastrophic global consequences on climate, ecosystems, and society, the precautionary principle demands thorough investigation of the underlying mechanisms, compound or cascading impacts, and associated risks. ClimTip will substantially advance the process understanding of possible Earth system Tipping Elements (TEs). It will provide the methodological framework for characterising and constraining potential TEs from paleoclimate, observational and model data, for identifying unknown tipping potential from observations and models, and for quantifying resilience and changes thereof in climate and ecosystems, including early-warning of forthcoming transitions. Earth system models (ESMs) are the primary tool for projecting the risk of large-scale tipping events and ClimTip will substantially improve their representation of suggested TEs. This will enable the identification of safe operating spaces for a stable Earth system by characterising key Earth system TEs in terms of their critical thresholds and rates, hysteresis and overshoot potential via empirical data and ESMs, taking into account the associated uncertainties. As a unique climate service, ClimTip will provide global high-resolution bias-corrected climate fields for large-scale tipping events based on storylines of tipping in comprehensive ESMs. The associated impacts on climate, ecosystems, biodiversity, agriculture, society and economy will be assessed globally and put in relation with the Paris Agreement and the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030. ClimTip will deliver a comprehensive and precise knowledge basis for tipping-aware risk assessment and adaptation and mitigation strategies. Results will be disseminated to the scientific community, general public, and targeted audiences including IPBES and IPCC.

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Topic(s)

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HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) HORIZON-CL5-2023-D1-01

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Coordinator

TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITAET MUENCHEN
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 1 617 189,05
Address
Arcisstrasse 21
80333 Muenchen
Germany

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Region
Bayern Oberbayern München, Kreisfreie Stadt
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

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Participants (12)

Partners (9)

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