Climate Tipping Points: Uncertainty-aware quantification of Earth system tipping potential from observations and models and assessment of associated climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic impacts

Project Information

ClimTip

Grant agreement ID: 101137601

DOI

10.3030/101137601

EC signature date 20 November 2023

Start date 1 March 2024

End date 29 February 2028

Funded under

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Total cost

No data

EU contribution

€ 5 868 639,19

Coordinated by

TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITAET MUENCHEN
Germany

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (59)

The Typicality of Regimes Associated with Northern Hemisphere Heatwaves

Author(s): Christopher C. Chapman, Didier P. Monselesan, James S. Risbey, Abdelwaheb Hannachi, Valerio Lucarini, and Richard Matear
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 109, 2025, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0548.1

Weaker Atlantic overturning circulation increases the vulnerability of northern Amazon forests

Author(s): T. K. Akabane, C. M. Chiessi, M. Hirota, I. Bouimetarhan, M. Prange, S. Mulitza, D. J. Bertassoli Jr, C. Häggi, A. Staal, G. Lohmann, N. Boers, A. L. Daniau, R. S. Oliveira, M. C. Campos, X. Shi, P. E. De Oliveira
Published in: Nature Geoscience, Issue 17, 2024, ISSN 1752-0894
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41561-024-01578-Z

Early warning signal of abrupt change in sea level pressure based on changing spectral exponent

Author(s): Q. Liu, W. He, X. Xie, Y. Mei, H. Sun, N. Boers
Published in: Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Issue 52, 2024, ISSN 2590-0544
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/J.CHAOS.2024.115350

Glacial abrupt climate change as a multi-scale phenomenon resulting from monostable excitable dynamics

Author(s): K. Riechers, G. Gottwald, N. Boers:
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 61, 2024, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0308.1

Surveys in Geophysics

Author(s): Bathiany, Sebastian; Bastiaansen, Robbin; Bastos, Ana; Blaschke, Lana; Lever, Jelle; Loriani, Sina; de Keersmaecker, Wanda; Dorigo, Wouter; Milenković, Milutin; Senf, Cornelius; Smith, Taylor; Verbesselt, Jan; Boers, Niklas
Published in: Ecosystem resilience monitoring and early warning using EO data: challenges and outlook, Issue 2, 2024, ISSN 0169-3298
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1007/S10712-024-09833-Z

Anticipating Critical Transitions in Multi-Dimensional Systems Driven by Time- and State-Dependent Noise

Author(s): Andreas Morr, Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Niklas Boers
Published in: APS Physical Review Research, Issue 13, 2024, ISSN 2643-1564
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.6.033251

Nature Geoscience

Author(s): T. K. Akabane; C. M. Chiessi; M. Hirota; I. Bouimetarhan; M. Prange; S. Mulitza; D. J. Bertassoli Jr; C. Häggi; A. Staal; G. Lohmann; N. Boers; A. L. Daniau; R. S. Oliveira; M. C. Campos; X. Shi; P. E. De Oliveira
Published in: Nature Geoscience, Issue 41, 2024, ISSN 1752-0894
Publisher: Nature Geoscience
DOI: 10.1038/S41561-024-01578-Z

Multichannel singular spectrum analysis of InSAR datasets: data-adaptive interpolation and decomposition of Sentinel-1 time series at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala

Author(s): D. Walwer, J. Gonzalez-Santana, C. Wauthier, E. Calais & M. Ghil
Published in: Geophysical Journal International, Issue 9, 2025, ISSN 1365-246X
Publisher: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.22541/ESSOAR.169566455.57890451/V1

Intraseasonal synchronization of extreme rainfall between North India and the Sahel

Author(s): Felix M. Strnad, Kieran M.R. Hunt, Niklas Boers, Bedartha Goswami
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Issue 28, 2025, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/QJ.4946

The role of edge states for early-warning of tipping points

Author(s): J. Lohmann, A. B. Hansen, A. Lovo, R. Chapman, F. Bouchet, and V. Lucarini
Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Issue 97, 2025, ISSN 1364-5021
Publisher: The Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSPA.2024.0753

Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data

Author(s): Maya Ben-Yami, Andreas Morr, Sebastian Bathiany, Niklas Boers
Published in: Science Advances, Issue 1, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adl4841

Resilience Indicators for Tropical Rainforests in a Dynamic Vegetation Model

Author(s): Bathiany, Sebastian ; Nian, Da ; Drüke, Markus ; Boers, Niklas
Published in: Global Change Biology, Issue 3, 2024, ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.17613

Fast, scale-adaptive and uncertainty-aware downscaling of Earth system model fields with generative machine learning

Author(s): Philipp Hess; Michael Aich; Baoxiang Pan; Niklas Boers
Published in: Nature Machine Intelligence, Issue 37, 2025, ISSN 2522-5839
Publisher: Nature Machine Intelligence
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2403.02774

Regularization of a conceptual model for Dansgaard–Oeschger events

Author(s): Bryony Hobden; Peter Ashwin; Paul D. L. Ritchie
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 93, 2025, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: AIP Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0244302

Collaboration between artificial intelligence and Earth science communities for mutual benefit

Author(s): Min Chen, Zhen Qian, Niklas Boers, Felix Creutzig, Gustau Camps-Valls, Klaus Hubacek, Christophe Claramunt, John P. Wilson, Stefano Nativi, Anthony J. Jakeman, R. Dietmar Müller, Michael Batty, Chenghu Zhou, Fahu Chen, Qiao Wang, Fan Zhang, C. Michael Bar
Published in: Nature Geoscience, Issue 20, 2024, ISSN 1752-0894
Publisher: Springer Nature Limited
DOI: 10.1038/S41561-024-01550-X

Wind-driven upwelling sustains weakened Atlantic overturning under climate extremes

Author(s): Jonathan Baker; Michael Bell; Laura Jackson; Geoffrey K Vallis; Andrew Watson; Richard Wood
Published in: Nature, Issue 6, 2024, ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher: Nature
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-4319650/V1

Multiple modes in tropical tree cover: a multi-dimensional perspective

Author(s): S. Bathiany, E. J. Kim and N. Boers
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 57, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics & IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADF7C2

Ecosystem evolution and drivers across the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding regions

Author(s): Yiran Xie, Xu Wang, Yatong Qian, Teng Liu, Hao Fan, Xiaosong Chen
Published in: Journal of Environmental Management, Issue 38, 2025, ISSN 0301-4797
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/J.JENVMAN.2025.124885

Increasing fluctuations in the Arctic summer sea ice cover are expected with future global warming

Author(s): A. Poltronieri, N.Bochow, N. Boers, M. Rypdal
Published in: Enviromental research climate, Issue 55, 2024, ISSN 2752-5295
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/AD519D

Abrupt Changes in the Subpolar North Atlantic and Their Impact on the Climate of the British Isles

Author(s): Matthew B. Menary, Laura C. Jackson, Richard A. Wood, Richard A. Betts
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 7, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL113871

Quantifying tipping behavior: Geometric early warnings and quasipotentials for a box model of AMOC

Author(s): Ruth R. Chapman; Peter Ashwin; Richard A. Wood
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 29, 2025, ISSN 1089-7682
Publisher: AIP Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0240959

Arctic summer sea ice loss will accelerate in coming decades

Author(s): A. Poltronieri, N. Bochow, N. Boers, P. K. Jakobsen, M. Rypdal:
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 56, 2024, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics & IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/AD5194

Melancholia states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Author(s): Johannes Lohmann; Valerio Lucarini
Published in: Physical Review Fluids, Issue 104, 2024, ISSN 2469-990X
Publisher: APS
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2405.13988

Observed regional impacts of marine heatwaves on sea-air CO2 exchange

Author(s): Li, C., F. A. Burger, C. C. Raible, T. L. Frölicher
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 118, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL110379

Early warning skill, extrapolation and tipping for accelerating cascades

Author(s): Peter Ashwin, Robbin Bastiaansen, Anna S von der Heydt and Paul Ritchie
Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A, Issue 71, 2025, ISSN 1364-5021
Publisher: The Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSPA.2025.0405

Synchronization of layer-counted paleoclimatic proxy archives using a Bayesian regression modeling framework

Author(s): E. Myrvoll-Nilsen, K. Riechers, N. Boers
Published in: Bayesian Analysis, Issue 26, 2025, ISSN 1936-0975
Publisher: Project euclid
DOI: 10.1214/25-BA1509

Physical Review X

Author(s): Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers
Published in: SPS Physical Review X, Issue 5, 2024, ISSN 2160-3308
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevX.14.021037

Precipitation over northern South America and the far-eastern Pacific during ENSO: Phase synchronization at inter-annual time scales

Author(s): Hernán D. Salas, Alejandro Builes-Jaramillo, Niklas Boers, Germán Poveda, Óscar J. Mesa, Jürgen Kurths
Published in: International Journal of Climatology, Issue 62, 2025, ISSN 1097-0088
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.8443

Chaos

Author(s): L. Heck; M. Gelbrecht; M. T. Schaub; N. Boers
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 73, 2025, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: Chaos
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2412.17499

Synchronization of Layer-Counted Paleoclimatic Proxy Archives Using a Bayesian Regression Modeling Framework

Author(s): Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen; Keno Riechers; Niklas Boers
Published in: Bayesian Analysis, Issue 26, 2025, ISSN 1936-0975
Publisher: Project Euclid
DOI: 10.1214/25-BA1509

Entropy

Author(s): Ningning Tao; Xiaosong Chen; Fei Xie; Yongwen Zhang; Yan Xia; Xuan Ma; Han Huang; Hongyu Wang
Published in: Entropy, Issue 35, 2025, ISSN 1099-4300
Publisher: Entropy
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2503.19366

Annals of Geophysics

Author(s): Michael Ghil
Published in: Annals of Geophysics, Issue 22, 2024, ISSN 1593-5213
Publisher: Editrice Compositori srl
DOI: 10.4401/AG-9182

Mutual stabilization of AMOC and GrIS due to different transient response to warming

Author(s): Frerk Pöppelmeier, Thomas Stocker
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 79, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics & IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADF45A

On the predictability of possible storylines for forced complex systems

Author(s): Johannes Lohmann, Bert Wuyts, Peter D Ditlevsen and Peter Ashwin
Published in: Journal of Physics: Complexity, Issue 25, 2024, ISSN 2632-072X
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2632-072X/AD7B95

Projections of Precipitation and Temperatures in Greenland and the Impact of Spatially Uniform Anomalies on the Evolution of the Ice Sheet

Author(s): N. Bochow; A. Poltronieri; N. Boers; N. Boers; N. Boers
Published in: The Cryosphere, Issue 8, 2024, ISSN 1994-0440
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/TC-18-5825-2024

A simple physical model for glacial cycles

Author(s): S. Pérez-Montero; S. Pérez-Montero; J. Alvarez-Solas; J. Alvarez-Solas; J. Swierczek-Jereczek; D. Moreno-Parada; A. Robinson; M. Montoya; M. Montoya
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 33, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-2024-1842

Saddle avoidance of noise-induced transitions in multiscale systems

Author(s): Reyk Börner, Ryan Deeley, Raphael Römer, Tobias Grafke, Valerio Lucarini, Ulrike Feude
Published in: Physical Review Research, Issue 112, 2024, ISSN 2643-1564
Publisher: APS
DOI: 10.1103/PHYSREVRESEARCH.6.L042053

Topological modes of variability in the wind-driven ocean circulation

Author(s): Charó, G.D., D. Sciamarella, J. Ruiz, S. Pierini, and M. Ghil
Published in: Chaos, Issue 49, 2025, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: API Publishing
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2502.01782

Key propagation pathways of extreme precipitation events revealed by climate networks

Author(s): K. Li, Y. Huang, M. Wang, F. Cai, J. Zhang, N.Boers
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 54, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Springer Nature in partnership with Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research King Abdulaziz University
DOI: 10.1038/S41612-024-00701-6

Exponential stability for a forecast-assimilation process with unstable dynamics

Author(s): Crisan, D., M. Ghil and R. Nuckchady
Published in: Chaos, Issue 46, 2025, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: API Publishing
DOI: 10.5281/ZENODO.17116796

Spatial Correlation Increase in Single‐Sensor Satellite Data Reveals Loss of Amazon Rainforest Resilience

Author(s): Lana L. Blaschke; Da Nian; Sebastian Bathiany; Maya Ben‐Yami; Taylor Smith; Chris A. Boulton; Niklas Boers
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 53, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: Advancing Earth and Space Sience
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2310.18540

Ecosystem Resilience Monitoring and Early Warning Using Earth Observation Data: Challenges and Outlook

Author(s): Sebastian Bathiany, Robbin Bastiaansen, Ana Bastos, Lana Blaschke, Jelle Lever, Sina Loriani, Wanda De Keersmaecker, Wouter Dorigo, Milutin Milenković, Cornelius Senf, Taylor Smith, Jan Verbesselt & Niklas Boers
Published in: Surveys in Geophysics, Issue 2, 2024, ISSN 0169-3298
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1007/S10712-024-09833-Z

Nature Communications

Author(s): Mingzhao Wang; Yu Huang; Christian L. E. Franzke; Naiming Yuan; Zuntao Fu; Niklas Boers
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 18, 2025, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-025-60104-W

Time-lagged recurrence: A data-driven method to estimate the predictability of dynamical systems

Author(s): Chenyu Dong, Davide Faranda, Adriano Gualandi, Valerio Lucarini, and Gianmarco Mengaldo
Published in: Proceedings National Academy of Sciences, Issue 102, 2025, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/PNAS.2420252122

Deep learning for predicting rate-induced tipping

Author(s): Yu Huang; Sebastian Bathiany; Peter Ashwin; Niklas Boers
Published in: Nature Machine Intelligence, Issue 23, 2024, ISSN 2037-416X
Publisher: Nature Machine Intelligence
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2409.07590

Red noise in continuous-time stochastic modelling

Author(s): Andreas Morr; Dörte Kreher; Niklas Boers
Published in: Royal Society Open Science, Issue 74, 2025, ISSN 2054-5703
Publisher: The Royal Society Publishing
DOI: 10.1098/RSOS.250573

Securing the forest carbon sink for the European Union’s climate ambition

Author(s): Migliavacca, Mirco; Grassi, Giacomo; Bastos, Ana; Ceccherini, Guido; Ciais, Philippe; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Lugato, Emanuele; Mahecha, Miguel; Novick, Kimberly; Peñuelas, Josep; Pilli, Roberto; Reichstein, Markus; Avitabile, Valerio; Beck, Pieter; Barredo, José; Forzieri, Giovanni; Herold, Martin; Korosuo, Anu; Mansuy, Nicolas; Mubareka, Sarah; Orth, Rene; Rougieux, Paul; Cescatti, Alessandro
Published in: Nature, Issue 86, 2025, ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-025-08967-3

Geophysical Research Letteres

Author(s): Matthew B. Menary; Laura C. Jackson; Richard A. Wood; Richard A. Betts
Published in: Abrupt Changes in the Subpolar North Atlantic and Their Impact on the Climate of the British Isles, Issue 7, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: advancing earth and space science
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL113871

Intraseasonal atmospheric variability under climate trends

Author(s): Maraldi, B., H. A. Dijkstra, and M. Ghil
Published in: Chaos, Issue 47, 2025, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: API Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0253103

Forecast error growth: A dynamic-stochastic model

Author(s): Bach, E., D. Crisan, and M. Ghil
Published in: Chaos, Issue 45, 2025, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: API Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0248102

Evidence for preferred propagating terrestrial heatwave pathways due to Rossby wave activity

Author(s): Mingzhao Wang, Yu Huang, Christian L. E. Franzke, Naiming Yuan, Zuntao Fu & Niklas Boers
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 18, 2025, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-025-60104-W

Internal noise interference to warnings of tipping points in generic multi-dimensional dynamical systems

Author(s): Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers, Peter Ashwin
Published in: SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems, Issue 14, 2024, ISSN 2643-1564
Publisher: SIAM
DOI: 10.1137/24M1669104

Physics of AMOC multistable regime shifts due to freshwater biases in an EMIC

Author(s): Amber A. Boot and Henk A. Dijkstra
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 119, 2025, ISSN 2190-4979
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-16-1221-2025

A Revisit of Large-Scale Patterns in Middle Stratospheric Circulation Variations

Author(s): Ningning Tao, Xiaosong Chen, Fei Xie, Yongwen Zhang, Yan Xia, Xuan Ma, Han Huang and Hongyu Wang
Published in: Entropy, Issue 35, 2025, ISSN 1099-4300
Publisher: MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/E27040327

Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data

Author(s): Ben-Yami, Maya; Morr, Andreas; Bathiany, Sebastian; Boers, Niklas
Published in: Science Advances, Issue 1, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2309.08521

Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi‐Model Comparison

Author(s): Ben‐Yami, M.; Good, P.; Jackson, L. C.; Crucifix, M.; Hu, A.; Saenko, O.; Swingedouw, D.; Boers, N.
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 16, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: Earth's Future
DOI: 10.1029/2023EF003959

Entropy

Author(s): Ningning Tao; Xiaosong Chen; Fei Xie; Yongwen Zhang; Yan Xia; Xuan Ma; Han Huang; Hongyu Wang
Published in: Entropy, Issue 35, 2025, ISSN 1099-4300
Publisher: MDPI
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2503.19366

Improving the noise estimation of latent neural stochastic differential equations

Author(s): L. Heck; M. Gelbrecht; M. T. Schaub; N. Boers
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 73, 2025, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2412.17499

Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

Author(s): Johannes Lohmann; Alfred B. Hansen; Alessandro Lovo; Ruth Chapman; Freddy Bouchet; Valerio Lucarini
Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Issue 97, 2025, ISSN 1364-5021
Publisher: The Royal Society
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2410.16277

Other (3)

Global Change Biology

Author(s): Sebastian Bathiany; Da Nian; Markus Drüke; Niklas Boers
Published in: Resilience indicators for tropical rainforests in a dynamic vegetation model, Issue 3, 2024, ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher: Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.17613

Reconstructing historical climate fields with deep learning

Author(s): Nils Bochow; Anna Poltronieri; Martin Rypdal; Niklas Boers
Published in: Science Advances, Issue 19, 2025, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: Science Adva nce s
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU24-5103

Assessment of Abrupt Shifts in CMIP6 Models Using Edge Detection

Author(s): Sjoerd Terpstra; Swinda K. J. Falkena; Robbin Bastiaansen; Sebastian Bathiany; Henk A. Dijkstra; Anna S. von der Heydt
Published in: AGU Advances, Issue 15, 2025, ISSN 2576-604X
Publisher: AGU Advances
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2410.19498