Climate Tipping Points: Uncertainty-aware quantification of Earth system tipping potential from observations and models and assessment of associated climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic impacts

Project Information

ClimTip

Grant agreement ID: 101137601

DOI

10.3030/101137601

EC signature date 20 November 2023

Start date 1 March 2024

End date 29 February 2028

Funded under

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Total cost

No data

EU contribution

€ 5 868 639,19

Coordinated by

TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITAET MUENCHEN
Germany

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (22)

Surveys in Geophysics

Author(s): Bathiany, Sebastian; Bastiaansen, Robbin; Bastos, Ana; Blaschke, Lana; Lever, Jelle; Loriani, Sina; de Keersmaecker, Wanda; Dorigo, Wouter; Milenković, Milutin; Senf, Cornelius; Smith, Taylor; Verbesselt, Jan; Boers, Niklas
Published in: Ecosystem resilience monitoring and early warning using EO data: challenges and outlook, Issue 2, 2024, ISSN 0169-3298
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1007/S10712-024-09833-Z

Anticipating Critical Transitions in Multi-Dimensional Systems Driven by Time- and State-Dependent Noise

Author(s): Andreas Morr, Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Niklas Boers
Published in: APS Physical Review Research, Issue 13, 2024, ISSN 2643-1564
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.6.033251

Nature Geoscience

Author(s): T. K. Akabane; C. M. Chiessi; M. Hirota; I. Bouimetarhan; M. Prange; S. Mulitza; D. J. Bertassoli Jr; C. Häggi; A. Staal; G. Lohmann; N. Boers; A. L. Daniau; R. S. Oliveira; M. C. Campos; X. Shi; P. E. De Oliveira
Published in: Nature Geoscience, Issue 41, 2024, ISSN 1752-0894
Publisher: Nature Geoscience
DOI: 10.1038/S41561-024-01578-Z

Intraseasonal synchronization of extreme rainfall between North India and the Sahel

Author(s): Felix M. Strnad, Kieran M.R. Hunt, Niklas Boers, Bedartha Goswami
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Issue 28, 2025, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/QJ.4946

Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data

Author(s): Maya Ben-Yami, Andreas Morr, Sebastian Bathiany, Niklas Boers
Published in: Science Advances, Issue 1, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adl4841

Fast, scale-adaptive and uncertainty-aware downscaling of Earth system model fields with generative machine learning

Author(s): Philipp Hess; Michael Aich; Baoxiang Pan; Niklas Boers
Published in: Nature Machine Intelligence, Issue 37, 2025, ISSN 2522-5839
Publisher: Nature Machine Intelligence
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2403.02774

Nature Geoscience

Author(s): Min Chen, Zhen Qian, Niklas Boers, Felix Creutzig, Gustau Camps-Valls, Klaus Hubacek, Christophe Claramunt, John P. Wilson, Stefano Nativi, Anthony J. Jakeman, R. Dietmar Müller, Michael Batty, Chenghu Zhou, Fahu Chen, Qiao Wang, Fan Zhang, C. Michael Bar
Published in: Nature Geoscience, Issue 20, 2024, ISSN 1752-0894
Publisher: Springer Nature Limited
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01550-x

Wind-driven upwelling sustains weakened Atlantic overturning under climate extremes

Author(s): Jonathan Baker; Michael Bell; Laura Jackson; Geoffrey K Vallis; Andrew Watson; Richard Wood
Published in: Nature, Issue 6, 2024, ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher: Nature
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-4319650/V1

Quantifying tipping behavior: Geometric early warnings and quasipotentials for a box model of AMOC

Author(s): Ruth R. Chapman; Peter Ashwin; Richard A. Wood
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 29, 2025, ISSN 1089-7682
Publisher: AIP Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0240959

Physical Review X

Author(s): Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers
Published in: SPS Physical Review X, Issue 5, 2024, ISSN 2160-3308
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevX.14.021037

Chaos

Author(s): L. Heck; M. Gelbrecht; M. T. Schaub; N. Boers
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 73, 2025, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: Chaos
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2412.17499

Synchronization of Layer-Counted Paleoclimatic Proxy Archives Using a Bayesian Regression Modeling Framework

Author(s): Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen; Keno Riechers; Niklas Boers
Published in: Bayesian Analysis, Issue 26, 2025, ISSN 1936-0975
Publisher: Project Euclid
DOI: 10.1214/25-BA1509

Entropy

Author(s): Ningning Tao; Xiaosong Chen; Fei Xie; Yongwen Zhang; Yan Xia; Xuan Ma; Han Huang; Hongyu Wang
Published in: Entropy, Issue 35, 2025, ISSN 1099-4300
Publisher: Entropy
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2503.19366

Annals of Geophysics

Author(s): Michael Ghil
Published in: Annals of Geophysics, Issue 22, 2024, ISSN 1593-5213
Publisher: Editrice Compositori srl
DOI: 10.4401/AG-9182

On the predictability of possible storylines for forced complex systems

Author(s): Johannes Lohmann, Bert Wuyts, Peter D Ditlevsen and Peter Ashwin
Published in: Journal of Physics: Complexity, Issue 25, 2024, ISSN 2632-072X
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2632-072X/AD7B95

Projections of Precipitation and Temperatures in Greenland and the Impact of Spatially Uniform Anomalies on the Evolution of the Ice Sheet

Author(s): N. Bochow; A. Poltronieri; N. Boers; N. Boers; N. Boers
Published in: The Cryosphere, Issue 8, 2024, ISSN 1994-0440
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/TC-18-5825-2024

Spatial Correlation Increase in Single‐Sensor Satellite Data Reveals Loss of Amazon Rainforest Resilience

Author(s): Lana L. Blaschke; Da Nian; Sebastian Bathiany; Maya Ben‐Yami; Taylor Smith; Chris A. Boulton; Niklas Boers
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 53, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: Advancing Earth and Space Sience
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2310.18540

Nature Communications

Author(s): Mingzhao Wang; Yu Huang; Christian L. E. Franzke; Naiming Yuan; Zuntao Fu; Niklas Boers
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 18, 2025, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-025-60104-W

Deep learning for predicting rate-induced tipping

Author(s): Yu Huang; Sebastian Bathiany; Peter Ashwin; Niklas Boers
Published in: Nature Machine Intelligence, Issue 23, 2024, ISSN 2037-416X
Publisher: Nature Machine Intelligence
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2409.07590

Geophysical Research Letteres

Author(s): Matthew B. Menary; Laura C. Jackson; Richard A. Wood; Richard A. Betts
Published in: Abrupt Changes in the Subpolar North Atlantic and Their Impact on the Climate of the British Isles, Issue 7, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: advancing earth and space science
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL113871

Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data

Author(s): Ben-Yami, Maya; Morr, Andreas; Bathiany, Sebastian; Boers, Niklas
Published in: Science Advances, Issue 1, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2309.08521

Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi‐Model Comparison

Author(s): Ben‐Yami, M.; Good, P.; Jackson, L. C.; Crucifix, M.; Hu, A.; Saenko, O.; Swingedouw, D.; Boers, N.
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 16, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: Earth's Future
DOI: 10.1029/2023EF003959

Other (3)

Global Change Biology

Author(s): Sebastian Bathiany; Da Nian; Markus Drüke; Niklas Boers
Published in: Resilience indicators for tropical rainforests in a dynamic vegetation model, Issue 3, 2024, ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher: Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.17613

Reconstructing historical climate fields with deep learning

Author(s): Nils Bochow; Anna Poltronieri; Martin Rypdal; Niklas Boers
Published in: Science Advances, Issue 19, 2025, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: Science Adva nce s
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU24-5103

Assessment of Abrupt Shifts in CMIP6 Models Using Edge Detection

Author(s): Sjoerd Terpstra; Swinda K. J. Falkena; Robbin Bastiaansen; Sebastian Bathiany; Henk A. Dijkstra; Anna S. von der Heydt
Published in: AGU Advances, Issue 15, 2025, ISSN 2576-604X
Publisher: AGU Advances
DOI: 10.48550/ARXIV.2410.19498