Description du projet
Observations mondiales du puits de carbone forestier
Trois mille milliards d’arbres forment un puits de carbone qui a absorbé environ 30 % des émissions humaines de carbone, mais il n’est pas certain que l’on puisse compter sur ce puits à long terme. Des changements dans la dynamique des arbres peuvent entraîner la saturation et le déclin du puits. Il est difficile de suivre avec précision ces changements à l’échelle mondiale en raison de l’absence de mesures normalisées et de la difficulté de modéliser des billions d’arbres. Le projet Tree2Globe, financé par le CER, vise à intégrer des millions d’observations sur les arbres afin d’évaluer les taux de croissance, de mortalité et d’établissement des arbres à l’échelle mondiale, ainsi que l’impact de l’utilisation passée des terres et des perturbations sur le puits de carbone mondial entre 1990 et 2027.
Objectif
Three trillion trees lie behind a carbon sink that has taken up about 30% of humanitys carbon emissions over recent decades. Yet whether we can continue to rely on this huge natural subsidy is highly uncertain. The sink emerges from systematic perturbations in the dynamics of growth, death and establishment of individual trees. Taken together across the forest, these lead to the net uptake or release of carbon. Both theory and recent observations point towards profound changes in these dynamics of the worlds forests being underway, potentially causing the sink to saturate and decline. But our ability to accurately assess and quantify such on-going changes worldwide is severely limited. The reasons for this are twofold: a lack of standardised measurements of the sink and the dynamics that cause it across the world, and the difficulty of modelling the dynamics of trillions of trees. Tree2Globe solves both of these limitations, using a novel model-data assimilation approach to consistently integrate the dynamics of millions of observations of individual trees collected under disparate protocols worldwide and link together this information in space and time based on physically-consistent principles. The resulting global forest reanalysis system will (a) provide a step-change in capability to make accurate and timely assessment of the rates of tree growth, death and establishment globally and (b) quantify how these combine with the legacies of past land-use and disturbance to explain the size, location and trajectory of the global carbon sink in trees over the period 1990-2027. This will enable us to make a definitive assessment of whether hypothesised changes in forest dynamics and the resulting carbon sink are coming to pass. This unique insight into how the worlds forests and their contribution to climate change mitigation are changing will provide key information to help guide the world to meet its net zero emissions policy commitments.
Programme(s)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Thème(s)
Appel à propositions
(s’ouvre dans une nouvelle fenêtre) ERC-2023-ADG
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HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsInstitution d’accueil
22100 Lund
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