Project description
Integrating Diverse Datasets to Estimate Eurasia’s Prehistoric Population
Studying population trends over the past 12 000 years is essential for understanding social development. Current global population estimates often rely on limited data, leading to inaccuracies in assessments. However, resources like the XRONOS database provide reliable insights. The ERC-funded ESTER project will apply hierarchical Bayesian modelling and data assimilation to integrate diverse datasets into population models. It will generate regional population estimates for Europe and Western Asia from 12 000 to 2 000 years before present (BP), addressing data reliability and gaps. Additionally, the project will examine the impacts of climatic changes, societal collapses, and innovations such as agriculture on population dynamics, drawing on Ester Boserup’s optimistic perspective on human adaptability.
Objective
Understanding population trends over the past 12,000 years is crucial for unraveling the complexities of social development. Population size influences social structures, exchange systems, environmental interactions, cultural transmission, and societal resilience. Current global population figures, derived since the 1970s, are educated guesses based on limited data and deductive methods, hindering accurate prehistoric assessments. Regional studies, emerging data sources, and innovative methods offer new possibilities, exemplified by the XRONOS database, a significant contribution from our research group.
The ESTER project proposes a groundbreaking approach, employing hierarchical Bayesian modeling and data assimilation techniques to integrate heterogeneous big data into population development models. This method evaluates data reliability, compensates for missing information, and facilitates regionalized estimates balancing varying data availability. Focused on Europe and Western Asia from 12,000 to 2,000 BP, the project aims to provide the first big-data-based regionalized population estimate. Sub-projects investigate climatic shifts, societal collapses, and the impact of innovations like agriculture on population dynamics. The project aligns with Ester Boserup's theories, reflecting her positive vision of humanity capable of change.
The ESTER project introduces a novel methodology, offering valid bases for investigating cultural and social configurations dependent on population numbers. It provides confidence intervals, 50-year temporal resolution, and absolute population numbers. These results can test causal relationships with climatic changes and volcanic eruptions. Beyond archaeology, they offer indicators for human impact and land use, aiding various palaeosciences in investigating human-environment relationships with unprecedented quality and reliability, fostering awareness of our past and its connection to ongoing global change.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
This project's classification has been human-validated.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
This project's classification has been human-validated.
Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2024-COG
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
24118 Kiel
Germany
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