Neuroecological mechanisms linking heat and aggression risk

Ziel

Increased aggression when temperatures rise has been observed since antiquity and is strongly supported by
meta-analyses of murders, wars and suicides. Given the toll of violence on society and a warming climate,
understanding the underlying processes is urgent, but extensive work has not produced a theory with consistent
support.
We propose a way out of this impasse through a paradigm shift towards neuroscience and ecology. Since
neural circuits of aggression and temperature regulation are known and highly preserved in evolution, and
increased aggression during heat is found in multiple species, not just humans, we hypothesise the existence
of homologous neurobiological mechanisms linking heat to aggression. We will identify these in humans
(WP1) and a rodent model (WP2). Neural circuit information will be linked to behavior with a detailed real
world assessment of a large epidemiological cohort in relation to social and environmental context and
temperature, using ecological momentary assessment and remote sensing (WP3). From these deeply
phenotyped datasets we will identify subtypes of the heat-behavior link and their underlying neural basis using
artificial intelligence (AI) (WP4). We will provide causal evidence for their relevance by targeting subtypes
with real-world interventions in micro-randomized controlled trials and by prediction in newly recruited
subjects (WP5). Based on this work, we will co-design globally applicable digital phenotyping tools linked to
open source urban resource planning platforms for improving heat resilience (WP6).
A range of cutting-edge approaches such as ultra-high field neuroimaging, real-world digital phenotyping,
scientific machine learning and ecological momentary interventions make these innovations achievable. The
project draws on extensive expertise, creates unique cohorts and datasets, and has a strong commitment to
open science and coproduction to provide validated tools to mitigate heat effects on aggression.