Multi-model Approach for Runup and INundation Analysis

Obiettivo

The MARINA project addresses the critical need for accurate, real-time coastal flood forecasting. Current operational tools rely either on computationally expensive process-based models or fast but inaccurate empirical formulations. MARINA bridges this gap by developing a scalable Decision Support System based on a probabilistic multi-model framework. Originating from the ERC Starting Grant WARMCOASTS, this technology utilizes a hybrid architecture where offline high-fidelity simulations are used to benchmark and calibrate a fast empirical ensemble, enabling site-specific probabilistic forecasts without heavy computational costs.
The objective of this Proof of Concept is to advance MARINA from a scientific concept to a validated operational prototype. Activities include synthesizing the empirical ensemble, developing a site-specific calibration framework with Bayesian components, and deploying a cloud-based dashboard for end-users. The project will explore the potential for commercial exploitation through a design thinking workflow. In collaboration with experts in economics from the Venice School of Management, the team will conduct design thinking activities to identify the best possible product design for final users. In collaboration with the Technology Transfer Office of Ca’ Foscari, the team will investigate Intellectual Property rights and the legal liability framework for MARINA. The project will deliver two outputs: a validated software engine and a comprehensive Business Plan positioning MARINA as a cost-effective service for coastal municipalities and civil protection agencies.