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Safety and risk evaluation using Bayesian nets

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The SERENE Method is concerned with the functional safety of complex systems, particularly programmable electronic systems which fall within the scope of draft IEC 61508 and similar standards. The SERENE method is a way of preparing an argument for the (functional) safety of a (programmable) system from safety evidence, using BBNs and by predicting properties relevant to safety. The supporting SERENE Tool is a BBN tool which automates the Bayesian inference calculations. Target markets for SERENE are the participants in the safety argument process (system end-user, developer, assessor, regulator) all of whom are required, by European legislation, to justify product safety. The SERENE safety argument approach is flexible enough not to presume the existence of some or all participants in the safety argument process and is widely applicable, even given the diversity of different regulatory regimes and safety engineering standards world-wide. The SERENE Method and Tool are currently under test and validation. The SERENE project finishes in June 1999. The benefits of the SERENE Method's approach are improved communication of the safety argument, with a clearer rationale for each safety factor, greater focus on the properties which lead to safety and a basis for empirical validation of the beliefs of safety experts and of the rationale for existing standards. The benefits of the use of a BBN representation of a safety argument are that the uncertainty associated with the causes of safety can be included in the model and the uncertainty about the overall system safety is explicit and the safety achieved can be quantified, allowing alternative safety strategies to be compared. Project URL: http://www.hugin.dk/serene

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