Final Report Summary - CHANGES (Changing Hydro-Meteorological Risks- As Analyzed by A New Generation of European Scientists)
Environmental changes in Europe due to global change and resulting reactions in ecosystems, combined with expected changes in socio-economic development will lead to adjustments in land use in areas that are exposed to hydro-meteorological hazards such as flooding, landslides, severe erosion, snow avalanches and wind storms. These hazards will also have domino effects (e.g. the effect of land-use change on runoff severe erosion and consequent landslides) that are still not properly understood. The effects of these changes need to be analyzed and modeled with hazard and risk methods that can be used by stakeholders from different sectors. The models should incorporate the uncertainties in temporal probability, spatial extend and magnitude of the hazards, as well as the uncertainties of the vulnerability of the exposed elements at risk. The modeled changes in hazard and risk patterns need to be incorporated into disaster risks management strategies and will form an important factor in land use planning activities at stakeholder relevant levels. They also have a large impact on risk governance policies that need to be adapted.
The CHANGES network (Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks – as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists) aimed to develop an advanced understanding of how global changes (related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change) will affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modelled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The MCITN was inter-disciplinary and inter-sectoral by its nature. Active stakeholders’ participation and the dissemination of the project results were important features of the project. High-level training facilities as well as scientific and technological excellence were provided to the next generation of researchers in the field of hazard and risk management. The results of the CHANGES network contributed to the Topical Action numbers 2 and 3 of the Hyogo Framework for Action of the UN-ISDR, as risk assessment and management, combined with innovation and education are considered essential to confront the impacts of future environmental changes.
The network consisted of 11 full partners from the Netherlands, Germany, France, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Romania and Italy and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, from the UK, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, and Italy. The network employed a total of 17 Early Stage Researchers, of which 13 were female and 4 male. The ESRs came from all over the world: New Zealand, Germany, Belgium, Slovenia, Romania, Netherlands, Italy, Myanmar, Colombia, USA, Switzerland, Macedonia, China, Iran, Moldova and Argentina. Twelve ESRs were hired for a period of 36 months, and carried out PhD research, whereas the other five ESRs were hired for 18 months and worked on the development of a web-based spatial decision support system for the analysis of changing risk. All ESRs have spent a considerable amount of time with other partners in secondments.
The scientific focus of the project was on a number of topics organized in five themes (work packages). The main objective of the first theme was to analyse the changes in hydro-meteorological hazards that are expected as a result of environmental changes. These changes are related to climate change and to expected changes in land use/land cover and ecosystems. Regional and local scale probabilistic hazard assessments for floods, landslides and debris flows were developed for four case study sites (Barcelonnette / Ubaye Valley in France; Buzau County in Romania; Fella River in Italy; and Wieprzówka catchment in Poland). Information on rainfall triggers were analysed and threshold models for landslide and flood occurrence were established. Downscaling of regional climate models was carried out to find out the most predictive factors for hydro-meteorological events. These data were used for further analysis of the relationships among triggers and slope/catchment responses in order to simulate the future trends in the occurrence of the hazards according to forecasted climate/landcover changes. The aim of the second theme was to evaluate environmental changes, triggered by global change (including climate change) and interacting with economic development, leading to changes in exposed elements at risk. The assessment of former distributions and the characterization and analysis of the current exposed elements at risk formed the basis of the work. Future scenarios for the location and type of exposed elements at risk depend on a number of factors, which are related to global change, but also to future economic developments and implementation of policies for land use planning. The uncertainty level in vulnerability approaches was evaluated based on historical damage catalogues, modelling and expert opinion. Indices for comprehensive, or holistic vulnerability assessment that include uncertainty levels were also be analysed and integrated within a dynamic context, focusing on characterization of future changes. The aim of theme was to integrate the techniques for hazard assessment with the results of the exposure and vulnerability analysis, into a platform for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) using multi-hazard risk assessment techniques. An important component consisted of the formalization and organization of datasets that can be used for the risk assessment models as well as for integrated risk management. The other theme focused on obtaining an advanced understanding on temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning and emergency preparedness, response and rescue activities. Starting from the findings from th other themes optimal methodologies, instruments and tools for risk management were designed and applied in order to cover the whole disaster cycle, also considering the complexity of changing environments. The outcomes were used for risk communication purposes, achieved by designing specific risk visualization and communication tools, aimed at local authorities, planning agencies, civil protection organizations, and also with a component directed to the general public. All partners and all young researchers within the Changes project were aware of the importance of stakeholder involvement in the evaluation of changing hydro-meteorological risk and its consequences for Risk Management.
The network organized a large series of training events in which also participants from outside of the network were invited. This resulted in a total of 6 professional skill courses (Research work plan development and scientific writing, Research ethics, Valorisation of scientific results, Dissemination of scientific results to the public, Writing research grant proposals and Project management), 6 technical skills course (Probabilistic risk assessment, Multi-hazard risk assessment, Monitoring and prediction of environmental changes, Web-GIS and Spatial Data Infrastructure, Tools for risk Management and Use of risk information in Spatial Planning) and 5 topical workshops (Risk governance implications of changing risks, Environmental changes, Modelling changes in hazard and risk, Changes in Risk Management and development of a Web-based platform).
Scientific output of the project was in the form of peer reviewed journal articles (over 35) and numerous conference papers and abstracts (over 80). Other outputs consisted of the organization of two exhibitions on natural hazards and risk management (in France and Romania), numerous stakeholder workshops, a system for the involvement of volunteers in the inspection of risk mitigation measures and a prototype system for decision support for disaster risk management. One of the main outputs of the project was the development of an internet-based Spatial Decision Support System called RiskChanges with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives and possible future scenarios related to climate change and landuse changes on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The system is online and can be accessed through http://changes.itc.utwente.nl/RiskChanges/
The project partners and young researchers actively collaborated with other Universities, research projects, NGOs and international organisations. The results of the project were all made available through the project website (http://www.changes-itn.eu/) including descriptions of the research results, description of the consortium partners, profiles of the Early Stage Researchers with links to the publications produced, all materials presented during the training courses, summaries of the project meetings, presentation of the case study areas, with maps and reports of the workshops which were held with the stakeholders. The project website contains also an extensive final report in which the results of the project are summarized (http://www.changes-itn.eu/Portals/0/Content/Project%20Documents/Deliverables/CHANGES_Final_Report_small.pdf)
At the end of the project the International Conference on the Analysis and Management of Changing Risk for Natural Hazards was organized to present and discuss research results in the above mentioned fields. The conference was held on 18 and 19 November, in Padua, Italy. The conference focus was put both on technical sessions presenting the state of the art research in the understanding of the natural processes and in the development of innovative methodologies for quantitative hazard and risk forecasts, and on the practical integration of natural, engineering, economical and human sciences within multi-scale methodologies for risk management and prevention planning. The conference was attended by 170 participants, from 34 countries. There were 46 oral presentations and 62 posters. The proceeding of the conference can be downloaded from: http://www.changes-itn.eu/Conference/Programme/DetailedProgramme/tabid/157/Default.aspx
Further information on the project can be obtained from the project coordinator, Dr. Cees van Westen (e-mail: c.j.vanwesten@utwente.nl tel: +31534874263)
The CHANGES network (Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks – as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists) aimed to develop an advanced understanding of how global changes (related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change) will affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modelled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The MCITN was inter-disciplinary and inter-sectoral by its nature. Active stakeholders’ participation and the dissemination of the project results were important features of the project. High-level training facilities as well as scientific and technological excellence were provided to the next generation of researchers in the field of hazard and risk management. The results of the CHANGES network contributed to the Topical Action numbers 2 and 3 of the Hyogo Framework for Action of the UN-ISDR, as risk assessment and management, combined with innovation and education are considered essential to confront the impacts of future environmental changes.
The network consisted of 11 full partners from the Netherlands, Germany, France, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Romania and Italy and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, from the UK, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, and Italy. The network employed a total of 17 Early Stage Researchers, of which 13 were female and 4 male. The ESRs came from all over the world: New Zealand, Germany, Belgium, Slovenia, Romania, Netherlands, Italy, Myanmar, Colombia, USA, Switzerland, Macedonia, China, Iran, Moldova and Argentina. Twelve ESRs were hired for a period of 36 months, and carried out PhD research, whereas the other five ESRs were hired for 18 months and worked on the development of a web-based spatial decision support system for the analysis of changing risk. All ESRs have spent a considerable amount of time with other partners in secondments.
The scientific focus of the project was on a number of topics organized in five themes (work packages). The main objective of the first theme was to analyse the changes in hydro-meteorological hazards that are expected as a result of environmental changes. These changes are related to climate change and to expected changes in land use/land cover and ecosystems. Regional and local scale probabilistic hazard assessments for floods, landslides and debris flows were developed for four case study sites (Barcelonnette / Ubaye Valley in France; Buzau County in Romania; Fella River in Italy; and Wieprzówka catchment in Poland). Information on rainfall triggers were analysed and threshold models for landslide and flood occurrence were established. Downscaling of regional climate models was carried out to find out the most predictive factors for hydro-meteorological events. These data were used for further analysis of the relationships among triggers and slope/catchment responses in order to simulate the future trends in the occurrence of the hazards according to forecasted climate/landcover changes. The aim of the second theme was to evaluate environmental changes, triggered by global change (including climate change) and interacting with economic development, leading to changes in exposed elements at risk. The assessment of former distributions and the characterization and analysis of the current exposed elements at risk formed the basis of the work. Future scenarios for the location and type of exposed elements at risk depend on a number of factors, which are related to global change, but also to future economic developments and implementation of policies for land use planning. The uncertainty level in vulnerability approaches was evaluated based on historical damage catalogues, modelling and expert opinion. Indices for comprehensive, or holistic vulnerability assessment that include uncertainty levels were also be analysed and integrated within a dynamic context, focusing on characterization of future changes. The aim of theme was to integrate the techniques for hazard assessment with the results of the exposure and vulnerability analysis, into a platform for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) using multi-hazard risk assessment techniques. An important component consisted of the formalization and organization of datasets that can be used for the risk assessment models as well as for integrated risk management. The other theme focused on obtaining an advanced understanding on temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning and emergency preparedness, response and rescue activities. Starting from the findings from th other themes optimal methodologies, instruments and tools for risk management were designed and applied in order to cover the whole disaster cycle, also considering the complexity of changing environments. The outcomes were used for risk communication purposes, achieved by designing specific risk visualization and communication tools, aimed at local authorities, planning agencies, civil protection organizations, and also with a component directed to the general public. All partners and all young researchers within the Changes project were aware of the importance of stakeholder involvement in the evaluation of changing hydro-meteorological risk and its consequences for Risk Management.
The network organized a large series of training events in which also participants from outside of the network were invited. This resulted in a total of 6 professional skill courses (Research work plan development and scientific writing, Research ethics, Valorisation of scientific results, Dissemination of scientific results to the public, Writing research grant proposals and Project management), 6 technical skills course (Probabilistic risk assessment, Multi-hazard risk assessment, Monitoring and prediction of environmental changes, Web-GIS and Spatial Data Infrastructure, Tools for risk Management and Use of risk information in Spatial Planning) and 5 topical workshops (Risk governance implications of changing risks, Environmental changes, Modelling changes in hazard and risk, Changes in Risk Management and development of a Web-based platform).
Scientific output of the project was in the form of peer reviewed journal articles (over 35) and numerous conference papers and abstracts (over 80). Other outputs consisted of the organization of two exhibitions on natural hazards and risk management (in France and Romania), numerous stakeholder workshops, a system for the involvement of volunteers in the inspection of risk mitigation measures and a prototype system for decision support for disaster risk management. One of the main outputs of the project was the development of an internet-based Spatial Decision Support System called RiskChanges with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives and possible future scenarios related to climate change and landuse changes on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The system is online and can be accessed through http://changes.itc.utwente.nl/RiskChanges/
The project partners and young researchers actively collaborated with other Universities, research projects, NGOs and international organisations. The results of the project were all made available through the project website (http://www.changes-itn.eu/) including descriptions of the research results, description of the consortium partners, profiles of the Early Stage Researchers with links to the publications produced, all materials presented during the training courses, summaries of the project meetings, presentation of the case study areas, with maps and reports of the workshops which were held with the stakeholders. The project website contains also an extensive final report in which the results of the project are summarized (http://www.changes-itn.eu/Portals/0/Content/Project%20Documents/Deliverables/CHANGES_Final_Report_small.pdf)
At the end of the project the International Conference on the Analysis and Management of Changing Risk for Natural Hazards was organized to present and discuss research results in the above mentioned fields. The conference was held on 18 and 19 November, in Padua, Italy. The conference focus was put both on technical sessions presenting the state of the art research in the understanding of the natural processes and in the development of innovative methodologies for quantitative hazard and risk forecasts, and on the practical integration of natural, engineering, economical and human sciences within multi-scale methodologies for risk management and prevention planning. The conference was attended by 170 participants, from 34 countries. There were 46 oral presentations and 62 posters. The proceeding of the conference can be downloaded from: http://www.changes-itn.eu/Conference/Programme/DetailedProgramme/tabid/157/Default.aspx
Further information on the project can be obtained from the project coordinator, Dr. Cees van Westen (e-mail: c.j.vanwesten@utwente.nl tel: +31534874263)