Final Report Summary - PROSPERO (PROactive Safety PERformance for Operations)
Executive Summary:
PROSPERO Executive Summary
PROSPERO focused on two parallel work streams: (i) the development and demonstration of the core PROSPERO system as a data and information transformation process; 9ii) and as a set of case studies concerned with the organisational aspects of the implementation of the system.
PROSPERO System - The PROSPERO architecture was defined in terms of four core elements as follows:
1. Data Providers (DP): The end users providing access to risk data
2. Risk Information Analysis Providers (RIAP): The network of services to organise and process risk data
3. Risk Intelligence Distribution Providers (RIDP): The network of services that allows the risk data exchange and communication
4. Risk Intelligence Use (RIU): The end users receiving the new knowledge on risk and how to apply such knowledge for risk management, advanced SMS uses, system design and change management uses.
The PROSPERO system was then modelled in three ways:
• PROSPERO Information Flow system – mapping the step-by-step data transfer / communication flow across the PROSPERO system users
• PROSPERO Aviation Integration Process – mapping the tasks and actions of coordinated multi-partners developing system risk models
• PROSPERO Role maps – mapping all expected roles allocated to various risk functions
Following the definition of the architecture, the activity was to adapt the partners’ IT capacities and to develop the new features required to reach the system demonstrator definition in accordance with the retained case studies covering organisational and systemic level. It addressed the risk information production (Risk pattern production, Risk monitoring or pattern patching, Risk information bulletin) and the management of change (Risk pattern’s evolution due to change). Then, the data collected from the case studies and provided by the end-user partners were integrated within the platform demonstrator as the PROSPERO IT capacities to enable the PROSPERO system demonstrator. The finalisation work was to validate the PROSPERO demonstrator by executing the demonstration with respect to the case studies and analysing the results. The successful final demonstration in June 2015 to the EC where the PROSPERO platform demonstrator was presented through the demonstration of 3 case studies. Although the collaboration at systemic level (i.e. between organizations) is a real challenge in sharing data (not from technical perspective), it was demonstrated that even with few operational datasets from different stakeholders, the data analysis brings value in risk assessment and monitoring. The predictive capacities are an innovative safety approach which focuses on the precursor’s analysis to better monitor operations and changes.
At organisational level, Five Case Studies were undertaken in the project, which ranged from new risk analysis based on cross-organisational big data analysis and predictive statistics to shared stakeholders change initiatives with very-long term horizons. The Case studies are as follows:
Case study 1 investigated the feasibility of identifying, integrating multiple data sets and domains (in Aeroporti Di Roma airport and Alitalia airline)
Case study 2 analysed the change and risks related to a complex procedural change in de-icing operations at the apron.
Case Study 3 analysed the provision of a performance management system to support a full cycle of SMS on core operations for a small regional airport, linked to the airport core strategic objectives and the evaluation of the organizational changes initiated through this process.
Case Study 4 studied and supported the full implementation of ACDM at Arlanda airport.
Case Study 5 developed a risk metric for representing the complexity of air traffic in a sector to support air traffic controller decision-making and operational risk management..
At systemic level: taken as a whole these case studies illustrate the PROSPERO system at the level of the Air Transport System (ATS). The case study at regulatory level consisted in a workshop held at the end of June 2015 at EASA premises in Cologne, with the following objectives:
• To present an overview of the PROSPERO concept and its realisation in a set of case studies;
• To discuss ways in which the PROSPERO approach addresses current regulatory activities in Europe concerning, for example, performance, safety, risk, reporting and organisational requirements
Project Context and Objectives:
New international regulation for aviation organizations and for states demands an approach to safety that is preventive and proactive rather than reactive, is performance driven, and able to deliver verifiable improvement. However, this cannot be realized without the capability to anticipate and prevent complex system accidents and this is lacking in the following ways. The most used risk assessment methodologies are based on expert judgment unsupported by extensive data. Anticipation of specific risks is not fine-tuned enough for preparation for potential emergencies to be integrated into normal everyday operational planning. There is no integrated risk metric for the Air Transport System that allows risks of different types and sources to be assessed with reference to each other. The lack of a system-wide risk metric makes it impossible for system improvements to be evaluated against a projected risk reduction target. There is no standard for safety performance that a regulator can use to audit, evaluate or require an operator to improve its safety system.
As stated in the PROSPERO description of work (DoW) the project planned to develop, implement and evaluate a prototype management system for identifying and actively managing systemic risks in the Air Transport System, including complex and novel interactions. This included the following components:
• A common operational concept of performance indicators representing inputs, ongoing activity as well as outputs of the ATS. These performance indicators will link safety to other operational goals.
• A methodology for operational system analysis that can support hazard and risk assessment, investigation, modeling and simulation of future systems, managing organizational change and system redesign. A new taxonomy will build on and extend the range of ADREP to encompass a full range of aviation socio-technical system concepts.
• A generic system-risk-management process involving all ATS stakeholders. This is based on the premise that “the risk is built in before the operation starts and needs to be managed through the whole operational lifecycle”. This includes
o The production of risk information from operational monitoring and analysis
o The supply of information on system status, including the aircraft and other technologies, route, personnel, weather, traffic.
o Risk management across the operational cycle – design, planning and supply, operational management (dispatch, operations)
o Feedback and learning
• A software system to support the socio-technical analysis and redesign of ATS, data integration, data monitoring and analysis, learning, capturing tacit knowledge, hosting on appropriate technologies and interfaces and links with complimentary applications.
• A dissemination and exploitation process will manage active real-time engagement with the wider aviation community and key institutional stakeholders, including the following: SESAR, SES PRB, EASA, IATA, ACI, FAA, ICAO, so as to ensure that PROSPERO delivers what the industry requires and that there is a clear path to the adoption and implementation of its methodologies, tools and organisational framework.
Achievements
PROSPERO delivered on these objectives in two parallel work streams: the development and demonstration of the core PROSPERO system as a data and information transformation process; and as a set of case studies concerned with the organisational aspects of the implementation of the system.
PROSPERO System
The PROSPERO architecture was defined in terms of four core elements as follows:
1. Data Providers (DP): The end users providing access to risk data
2. Risk Information Analysis Providers (RIAP): The network of services to organise and process risk data
3. Risk Intelligence Distribution Providers (RIDP): The network of services that allows the risk data exchange and communication
4. Risk Intelligence Use (RIU): The end users receiving the new knowledge on risk and how to apply such knowledge for risk management, advanced SMS uses, system design and change management uses.
The PROSPERO system was then modelled in three ways:
• PROSPERO Information Flow system – mapping the step-by-step data transfer / communication flow across the PROSPERO system users
• PROSPERO Aviation Integration Process – mapping the tasks and actions of coordinated multi-partners developing system risk models
• PROSPERO Role maps – mapping all expected roles allocated to various risk functions
Following the definition of the architecture, the activity was to adapt the partners’ IT capacities and to develop the new features required to reach the system demonstrator definition in accordance with the retained case studies covering organizational and systemic level. It addressed the risk information production (Risk pattern production, Risk monitoring or pattern patching, Risk information bulletin) and the management of change (Risk pattern’s evolution due to change). Then, the data collected from the case studies and provided by the end-user partners were integrated within the platform demonstrator as the PROSPERO IT capacities to enable the PROSPERO system demonstrator. The finalisation work was to validate the PROSPERO demonstrator by executing the demonstration with respect to the case studies and analysing the results. The successful final demonstration (D4.16) in June 2015 to the EC where the PROSPERO platform demonstrator was presented through the demonstration of 3 case studies. Although the collaboration at systemic level (i.e. between organizations) is a real challenge in sharing data (not from technical perspective), it was demonstrated that even with few operational datasets from different stakeholders, the data analysis brings value in risk assessment and monitoring. The predictive capacities are an innovative safety approach which focuses on the precursor’s analysis to better monitor operations and changes.
Case Studies
The overall objectives of WP5 were to organise and perform a set of Case Studies to support the actual development and implementation of the PROSPERO methodology at different levels of application. Three sets of Case Studies were designed and carried out in accordance with the three level of complexity of the PROSPERO approach. The case-studies commenced at organisational level, in which each industrial stakeholder within the Consortium will develop and implement a case study properly shaped on its everyday activities. The second set of case studies, referred as systemic level case studies, proposes one common scenario focusing on integration of an operational situation engaging different types of stakeholders. Finally, the overall integrated PROSPERO approach enabled the implementation of a single case study at regulatory level, where all lessons learned in the previous case studies will be integrated in a regulatory perspective.
At organisational level, Five Case Studies were undertaken in the project, which ranged from new risk analysis based on cross-organizational big data analysis and predictive statistics to shared stakeholders change initiatives with very-long term horizons. The Case studies are as follows:
Case study 1 investigated the feasibility of identifying, integrating multiple data sets and domains (in Aeroporti Di Roma airport and Alitalia airline) successfully and identifying risk patterns as defined in Deliverable 3.6 and 3.8 of PROSPERO. A Key objective was to prove capacity of integrating and predicting bird-strike events as key hazard selected in the Project.
Case study 2 analysed the change and risks related to a complex procedural change in de-icing operations at the apron. A Change Management methodology was set and applied to test what kind of issues could arise from this change and how the company could manage and control risk in change.
Case Study 3 analysed the provision of a performance management system to support a full cycle of SMS on core operations for a small regional airport, linked to the airport core strategic objectives and the evaluation of the organizational changes initiated through this process. A combination of Prospective and Retrospective risk analysis support company operations and performance monitoring/evaluation.
Case Study 4 studied and supported the full implementation of ACDM at Arlanda airport. This involved the collaboration of a wide range of operational partners together with the airport authority.
Case Study 5 developed a risk metric for representing the complexity of air traffic in a sector to support air traffic controller decision-making and operational risk management. An ATM dashboard has been developed integrating aspects of complexity, safety and operations in air traffic control.
At systemic level: taken as a whole these case studies illustrate the PROSPERO system at the level of the Air Transport System (ATS). They illustrate both the operational loop of risk data and the change management loop, both of these involving different actors in the ATS. In essence, the “bird-strike” case study (Case Study 1) and the ATM complexity (Case Study 5) represent the Prospero Operational loop (combined as an ATS solution). The ADR and ACDM cases (Case Study 2 and 4) represent change; not just airport change, but also the other ATS partners. SAGA case about SMS implementation (Case study 3) represented both the Operational to the Change management loop with a whole system risk assessment airport, airline, ATM, emergency services. A complete system level case.
The case study at regulatory level consisted in a workshop held at the end of June 2015 at EASA premises in Cologne, with the following objectives:
• To present an overview of the PROSPERO concept and its realisation in a set of case studies;
• To discuss ways in which the PROSPERO approach addresses current regulatory activities in Europe concerning, for example, performance, safety, risk, reporting and organisational requirements;
• To discuss potential benefits for regulation and for national and European authorities that could arise from implementing the PROSPERO approach in aviation organisations;
• To address future developments in areas like software systems, safety services and research priorities.
The workshop combined presentations of the PROSPERO concept, the system and the case studies alongside presentations from EASA on: mandatory and voluntary reporting, SMS, risk assessment; performance of the whole Air Transport system. The EASA focus is to try to make this work as a system, not just as a set of rules and standards. Thus it is required under the reporting directive to report the analysis of the event and the implementation of actions, and to encourage more comprehensive voluntary reporting. They want to make the ECCAIRS database that holds all this data more accessible and usable by the aviation community. This is part of a shift in thinking towards considering regulation as part of a global SMS. EASA are very interested in large data, sharing of data between organisations and responded with interest to the ideas put forward about this being a knowledge business, and about gathering risk data from all the services along a process, integrating and then reapportioning the resulting risk information to each service provider according to its process, creating networks of sharing through nodes (airports, ATM) so that competing airlines are not forced to directly share, but only indirectly through common interest and common value. They were impressed with the range of work and the depth of involvement with the operational organisations. There was a good discussion on the issue of confidentiality and the possibility of configuring this in a slightly different way, including how protections could be built in. The Single European Sky is in Reference period 2 (2015-1019) but are already planning for RP3 (2020-). This is where they hope to be able to achieve an effective safety performance metric. PROSPERO could be seen as part of the solution to this. There are important opportunities both for a commercial PROSPERO solution and for a follow-on project to contribute tangibly to this strategic goal.
Validation
PROSPERO functionality has been validated in three case studies: (a) managing the risk of change in European airports, (b) Air transport system risk assessment based on shared data between airports and airlines, and (c) supporting compliance with and satisfaction of European regulatory requirements. The following functions have been successfully validated: (1) the Structured Enquiry to support the change management loop, (2) data sharing among aviation stakeholders, (3) data integration, (4) data mining, (5) risk pattern matching, and (6) risk intelligence distribution.
The following challenges have been identified that should be investigated in further work:
(a) Access to data and data quality remain a crucial issue. Ways for overcoming barriers to data sharing should be investigated, and the benefits of data sharing need to be clearly articulated and demonstrated to stakeholders.
(b) The bird strike example was a convenient case study as it facilitated access to data, but it limited the utility of the PROSPERO functions. Further case studies should explore the extent to which the data integration, data mining, risk pattern matching, and risk intelligence distribution functions enhance the existing risk model for other types of events.
(c) The bird strike example operated with partially simulated data. Further work should investigate the feasibility of data integration, data mining, risk pattern matching and risk intelligence distribution in a live environment with large amounts of disparate data.
(d) At the regulatory level, further work should explore practical ways in which PROSPERO can support not only compliance with regulatory requirements, but also facilitate regulatory oversight functions themselves.
Future
PROSPERO promises to deliver a new concept of safety management based on the concept of risk knowledge. Risk knowledge comes from large and diverse data sources accumulated along a process, analysed and fed back to the process owners. Its emphasis on the antecedents or precursors of risk identifies what needs to change to gain the maximum leverage in preventing and mitigating risk. It supports the management of change, through in-depth analysis, collaborative participation and monitoring progress; it creates accountability for the implementation of recommendations for change. Through sharing of selected data it enables the building of comprehensive system risk models in which shared risks can be effectively controlled and providing oversight over suppliers and sub-contractors. It is a bottom-up approach that empowers all participants from the operational sharp-end to strategic management, to monitor, manage and improve the risk profile for which they are responsible.
Immediate goals for PROSPERO in the period after the project, include the consolidation and further development of an integrated software system to serve flight operations, airport ground operations, aircraft maintenance. An ATM performance and risk concept should fully integrate with this, based on complexity metrics developed in the project. This will be collaboratively implemented in a network of operational users serviced by a multi-functional knowledge business. A wider interest group developing and disseminating these ideas in a learning community will be supported by the new Masters programme on Managing Risk and System Change in TCD.
PROSPERO fulfills the current SMS requirements for all aviation organisations to be proactive, systemic and performance focused. This approach will enable the development of an integrated Air Transport System (ATS) safety performance management concept that can fulfil the safety goals of Single European Sky for reference period 3 (commencing in 2020).
New international regulation for aviation organizations and for states demands an approach to safety that is preventive and proactive rather than reactive, is performance driven, and able to deliver verifiable improvement. However, this cannot be realized without the capability to anticipate and prevent complex system accidents and this is lacking in the following ways. The most used risk assessment methodologies are based on expert judgment unsupported by extensive data. Anticipation of specific risks is not fine-tuned enough for preparation for potential emergencies to be integrated into normal everyday operational planning. There is no integrated risk metric for the Air Transport System that allows risks of different types and sources to be assessed with reference to each other. The lack of a system-wide risk metric makes it impossible for system improvements to be evaluated against a projected risk reduction target. There is no standard for safety performance that a regulator can use to audit, evaluate or require an operator to improve its safety system.
As stated in the PROSPERO description of work (DoW) the project planned to develop, implement and evaluate a prototype management system for identifying and actively managing systemic risks in the Air Transport System, including complex and novel interactions. This included the following components:
• A common operational concept of performance indicators representing inputs, ongoing activity as well as outputs of the ATS. These performance indicators will link safety to other operational goals.
• A methodology for operational system analysis that can support hazard and risk assessment, investigation, modeling and simulation of future systems, managing organizational change and system redesign. A new taxonomy will build on and extend the range of ADREP to encompass a full range of aviation socio-technical system concepts.
• A generic system-risk-management process involving all ATS stakeholders. This is based on the premise that “the risk is built in before the operation starts and needs to be managed through the whole operational lifecycle”. This includes
o The production of risk information from operational monitoring and analysis
o The supply of information on system status, including the aircraft and other technologies, route, personnel, weather, traffic.
o Risk management across the operational cycle – design, planning and supply, operational management (dispatch, operations)
o Feedback and learning
• A software system to support the socio-technical analysis and redesign of ATS, data integration, data monitoring and analysis, learning, capturing tacit knowledge, hosting on appropriate technologies and interfaces and links with complimentary applications.
• A dissemination and exploitation process will manage active real-time engagement with the wider aviation community and key institutional stakeholders, including the following: SESAR, SES PRB, EASA, IATA, ACI, FAA, ICAO, so as to ensure that PROSPERO delivers what the industry requires and that there is a clear path to the adoption and implementation of its methodologies, tools and organisational framework.
Achievements
PROSPERO delivered on these objectives in two parallel work streams: the development and demonstration of the core PROSPERO system as a data and information transformation process; and as a set of case studies concerned with the organisational aspects of the implementation of the system.
PROSPERO System
The PROSPERO architecture was defined in terms of four core elements as follows:
1. Data Providers (DP): The end users providing access to risk data
2. Risk Information Analysis Providers (RIAP): The network of services to organise and process risk data
3. Risk Intelligence Distribution Providers (RIDP): The network of services that allows the risk data exchange and communication
4. Risk Intelligence Use (RIU): The end users receiving the new knowledge on risk and how to apply such knowledge for risk management, advanced SMS uses, system design and change management uses.
The PROSPERO system was then modelled in three ways:
• PROSPERO Information Flow system – mapping the step-by-step data transfer / communication flow across the PROSPERO system users
• PROSPERO Aviation Integration Process – mapping the tasks and actions of coordinated multi-partners developing system risk models
• PROSPERO Role maps – mapping all expected roles allocated to various risk functions
Following the definition of the architecture, the activity was to adapt the partners’ IT capacities and to develop the new features required to reach the system demonstrator definition in accordance with the retained case studies covering organizational and systemic level. It addressed the risk information production (Risk pattern production, Risk monitoring or pattern patching, Risk information bulletin) and the management of change (Risk pattern’s evolution due to change). Then, the data collected from the case studies and provided by the end-user partners were integrated within the platform demonstrator as the PROSPERO IT capacities to enable the PROSPERO system demonstrator. The finalisation work was to validate the PROSPERO demonstrator by executing the demonstration with respect to the case studies and analysing the results. The successful final demonstration (D4.16) in June 2015 to the EC where the PROSPERO platform demonstrator was presented through the demonstration of 3 case studies. Although the collaboration at systemic level (i.e. between organizations) is a real challenge in sharing data (not from technical perspective), it was demonstrated that even with few operational datasets from different stakeholders, the data analysis brings value in risk assessment and monitoring. The predictive capacities are an innovative safety approach which focuses on the precursor’s analysis to better monitor operations and changes.
Case Studies
The overall objectives of WP5 were to organise and perform a set of Case Studies to support the actual development and implementation of the PROSPERO methodology at different levels of application. Three sets of Case Studies were designed and carried out in accordance with the three level of complexity of the PROSPERO approach. The case-studies commenced at organisational level, in which each industrial stakeholder within the Consortium will develop and implement a case study properly shaped on its everyday activities. The second set of case studies, referred as systemic level case studies, proposes one common scenario focusing on integration of an operational situation engaging different types of stakeholders. Finally, the overall integrated PROSPERO approach enabled the implementation of a single case study at regulatory level, where all lessons learned in the previous case studies will be integrated in a regulatory perspective.
At organisational level, Five Case Studies were undertaken in the project, which ranged from new risk analysis based on cross-organizational big data analysis and predictive statistics to shared stakeholders change initiatives with very-long term horizons. The Case studies are as follows:
Case study 1 investigated the feasibility of identifying, integrating multiple data sets and domains (in Aeroporti Di Roma airport and Alitalia airline) successfully and identifying risk patterns as defined in Deliverable 3.6 and 3.8 of PROSPERO. A Key objective was to prove capacity of integrating and predicting bird-strike events as key hazard selected in the Project.
Case study 2 analysed the change and risks related to a complex procedural change in de-icing operations at the apron. A Change Management methodology was set and applied to test what kind of issues could arise from this change and how the company could manage and control risk in change.
Case Study 3 analysed the provision of a performance management system to support a full cycle of SMS on core operations for a small regional airport, linked to the airport core strategic objectives and the evaluation of the organizational changes initiated through this process. A combination of Prospective and Retrospective risk analysis support company operations and performance monitoring/evaluation.
Case Study 4 studied and supported the full implementation of ACDM at Arlanda airport. This involved the collaboration of a wide range of operational partners together with the airport authority.
Case Study 5 developed a risk metric for representing the complexity of air traffic in a sector to support air traffic controller decision-making and operational risk management. An ATM dashboard has been developed integrating aspects of complexity, safety and operations in air traffic control.
At systemic level: taken as a whole these case studies illustrate the PROSPERO system at the level of the Air Transport System (ATS). They illustrate both the operational loop of risk data and the change management loop, both of these involving different actors in the ATS. In essence, the “bird-strike” case study (Case Study 1) and the ATM complexity (Case Study 5) represent the Prospero Operational loop (combined as an ATS solution). The ADR and ACDM cases (Case Study 2 and 4) represent change; not just airport change, but also the other ATS partners. SAGA case about SMS implementation (Case study 3) represented both the Operational to the Change management loop with a whole system risk assessment airport, airline, ATM, emergency services. A complete system level case.
The case study at regulatory level consisted in a workshop held at the end of June 2015 at EASA premises in Cologne, with the following objectives:
• To present an overview of the PROSPERO concept and its realisation in a set of case studies;
• To discuss ways in which the PROSPERO approach addresses current regulatory activities in Europe concerning, for example, performance, safety, risk, reporting and organisational requirements;
• To discuss potential benefits for regulation and for national and European authorities that could arise from implementing the PROSPERO approach in aviation organisations;
• To address future developments in areas like software systems, safety services and research priorities.
The workshop combined presentations of the PROSPERO concept, the system and the case studies alongside presentations from EASA on: mandatory and voluntary reporting, SMS, risk assessment; performance of the whole Air Transport system. The EASA focus is to try to make this work as a system, not just as a set of rules and standards. Thus it is required under the reporting directive to report the analysis of the event and the implementation of actions, and to encourage more comprehensive voluntary reporting. They want to make the ECCAIRS database that holds all this data more accessible and usable by the aviation community. This is part of a shift in thinking towards considering regulation as part of a global SMS. EASA are very interested in large data, sharing of data between organisations and responded with interest to the ideas put forward about this being a knowledge business, and about gathering risk data from all the services along a process, integrating and then reapportioning the resulting risk information to each service provider according to its process, creating networks of sharing through nodes (airports, ATM) so that competing airlines are not forced to directly share, but only indirectly through common interest and common value. They were impressed with the range of work and the depth of involvement with the operational organisations. There was a good discussion on the issue of confidentiality and the possibility of configuring this in a slightly different way, including how protections could be built in. The Single European Sky is in Reference period 2 (2015-1019) but are already planning for RP3 (2020-). This is where they hope to be able to achieve an effective safety performance metric. PROSPERO could be seen as part of the solution to this. There are important opportunities both for a commercial PROSPERO solution and for a follow-on project to contribute tangibly to this strategic goal.
Validation
PROSPERO functionality has been validated in three case studies: (a) managing the risk of change in European airports, (b) Air transport system risk assessment based on shared data between airports and airlines, and (c) supporting compliance with and satisfaction of European regulatory requirements. The following functions have been successfully validated: (1) the Structured Enquiry to support the change management loop, (2) data sharing among aviation stakeholders, (3) data integration, (4) data mining, (5) risk pattern matching, and (6) risk intelligence distribution.
The following challenges have been identified that should be investigated in further work:
(a) Access to data and data quality remain a crucial issue. Ways for overcoming barriers to data sharing should be investigated, and the benefits of data sharing need to be clearly articulated and demonstrated to stakeholders.
(b) The bird strike example was a convenient case study as it facilitated access to data, but it limited the utility of the PROSPERO functions. Further case studies should explore the extent to which the data integration, data mining, risk pattern matching, and risk intelligence distribution functions enhance the existing risk model for other types of events.
(c) The bird strike example operated with partially simulated data. Further work should investigate the feasibility of data integration, data mining, risk pattern matching and risk intelligence distribution in a live environment with large amounts of disparate data.
(d) At the regulatory level, further work should explore practical ways in which PROSPERO can support not only compliance with regulatory requirements, but also facilitate regulatory oversight functions themselves.
Future
PROSPERO promises to deliver a new concept of safety management based on the concept of risk knowledge. Risk knowledge comes from large and diverse data sources accumulated along a process, analysed and fed back to the process owners. Its emphasis on the antecedents or precursors of risk identifies what needs to change to gain the maximum leverage in preventing and mitigating risk. It supports the management of change, through in-depth analysis, collaborative participation and monitoring progress; it creates accountability for the implementation of recommendations for change. Through sharing of selected data it enables the building of comprehensive system risk models in which shared risks can be effectively controlled and providing oversight over suppliers and sub-contractors. It is a bottom-up approach that empowers all participants from the operational sharp-end to strategic management, to monitor, manage and improve the risk profile for which they are responsible.
Immediate goals for PROSPERO in the period after the project, include the consolidation and further development of an integrated software system to serve flight operations, airport ground operations, aircraft maintenance. An ATM performance and risk concept should fully integrate with this, based on complexity metrics developed in the project. This will be collaboratively implemented in a network of operational users serviced by a multi-functional knowledge business. A wider interest group developing and disseminating these ideas in a learning community will be supported by the new Masters programme on Managing Risk and System Change in TCD.
PROSPERO fulfills the current SMS requirements for all aviation organisations to be proactive, systemic and performance focused. This approach will enable the development of an integrated Air Transport System (ATS) safety performance management concept that can fulfil the safety goals of Single European Sky for reference period 3 (commencing in 2020).
Project Results:
Overview of PROSPERO Work-Packages
• WP1 Project Management
• WP2 Definition of Requirements
• WP3 Design & Preparation
• WP4 Develop & Integrate
• WP5 Case Studies
• WP6 Validation
• WP7 Impact & Dissemination
WP1 Project Management
TCD (as the co-ordinating partner) played an active role in ensuring that all technical and administrative aspects of the project were kept on track. The PROSPERO consortium functioned as an effective team throughout the duration of the project. In particular there was a very proactive and enthusiastic involvement of all the industrial partners, and this coupled with the synchronisation of the research and IT development partners has resulted in a high level of co-ordination, open and transparent communication. Nevertheless PROSPERO was quite a challenging project: because the key focus wason the development of capabilities at a system level (both locally and globally), it required each partner to understand not only their own RDT objectives, but, even more so, to understand the role of other partners in collaborating to create a capability that does not yet exist.
Overall progress was often much slower than planned and it has been useful to see the project in terms of a process of staged learning and development, which can be tracked through the initial kick-off meeting and succeeding workshops. For example, an initial realisation of what could be achieved through collaboration with existing technologies and methods to create a system capability, evolved into a realisation of what could be done through the integration of large amounts of data, and is now confronting the possibilities that could be achieved by developing research-based services to analyse data to create new knowledge, and then to distribute and create new uses for this data across the whole air transport system.
Therefore there was a delay in delivering key deliverables especially in the later stages of the project. Nevertheless all deliverables planned have now been submitted
In order to facilitate the development of a robust common understanding of the PROSPERO system a process for enhanced collaboration and learning was built into the work-programme, which is planned to actively engage all partners. It is also important to explicitly build on the achievements of other projects, even though not all partners had experience of previous projects (e.g. MASCA). This was considered to be very important in an action-oriented research that is characteristic of PROSPERO, because it takes a long time to develop the kind of case studies that can effectively test a system like PROSPERO.. This is why SAGA (Pescara airport) and Swedavia were brought into the project as full partners. SAGA joined the Consortium in October 2013 and Swedavia in March 2014 (both of which were partners in the MASCA project. Through these means, a solid platform of research and development was established in order to ensure that all project objectives were met during the project.
WP2 Definition of Requirements (M0-M6)
The overall objective of WP2 was to define the industry requirements for the PROSPERO system. The short duration of WP2 (six working months) posed a challenge considering the enormous complexity of the research required for this concept as well as the many stakeholders across the ATS. The research partners managed to meet and collect data from all stakeholders including end-users as well as providers of technologies. Academic researchers also provided theoretical frameworks. The Advisory Board extended this reach to include regulators, authorities and expertise in various fields. Additional participants for data collection were selected based upon established contacts or regional closeness. In summary the key outputs from WP2 included a revised operational concept (See figure 5) and a comprehensive overview of industry requirements and validation for the future development of the PROSPERO system. This WP also identified gaps in understanding and expectations between partners (end-users, developers, research) about how an integrated PROSPERO system could work. D2.2 Requirements for Proactive Safety Performance for Operations at organizational and systemic level was submitted in May 2013.
WP3 Design & Preparation (M10-M26)
The overall objectives of WP3 were to define the key functional requirements and specifications of the future PROSPERO system. A first research action targeted the definition or a common ATS set of performance indicators called PROSPERO KPIs. This list consisted of more than 700 KPIs overall. The new PROSPERO functionality focused on a concerted and harmonized common risk methodology, this resulted in the integration of data-driven and risk models-driven approaches to risk assessment. The operational as well as the change loop being addressed in PROSPERO were mapped out and validated according to the competency requirements needed to sustain and foster change oriented and prospective safety oriented models in the total ATS. The identification and description of a set of capabilities that should be deployed to fulfil the requirements and the definition of the relationships between these capabilities to manage the information flow was also established. It emerged during this WP that the main constraints and challenges were not related to technology but legal/organizational (i.e. confidentiality of data, intellectual property of software between partners). All the above achievements are fully described in D3.6 Functional Specification for the design and preparation of PROSPERO delivered in November 2013 and D3.8 Revised Functional Specification which was submitted in April 2014.
WP4 Develop & Integrate (M10-M32)
The overall objectives of WP 4 were to turn the design specifications from WP3 into an integrated information management system that is capable of demonstrating the PROSPERO concepts according to the case studies of WP 5. The integration platform demonstrator was defined to enable centralization and distribution of data with interconnected capacities offered by the partners IT tool with regards to the retained UCs.
To reach this goal, the WP 4 applied the following steps:
- Task 4.1: based on the preliminary WP 4 preparation work to support the “definition of requirements”, the “functional analysis” and the “case studies“ definition, the work was to propose suitable architectures supporting the PROSPERO concept demonstration and to select the most appropriate one to the project context. This architecture is a global demonstrator solution integrating:
▪ the infrastructure (‘backbone i.e. integration platform’),
▪ the software and applications picked-up among the partners IT capacities portfolio or developed for the purpose of the project.
▪ the human resources involved in a modified operational process.
- Task 4.2: further to the definition of the architecture, the activity was to adapt the partners IT capacities and to develop the new features required to reach the system demonstrator definition in accordance with the retained case studies covering organizational and systemic level. It addressed the risk information production (Risk pattern production Risk monitoring or pattern patching, Risk information bulletin) and the management of change (Risk pattern’s evolution due to change)
- Task 4.3: then, the data collected from the case studies scope and provided by the end-user partners were integrated within the platform demonstrator as the PROSPERO IT capcities (outcomes of task 4.2) to enable the PROSPERO system demonstrator
- Tasks 4.4: the finalization work was to validate the PROSPERO demonstrator by executing the demonstration with respect to the case studies and analysing the results.
A mid-terms demonstration (D4.9) was presented to the EC in June 2014 with a restricted set of capabilities and data integration. It brought more conviction within the PROSPERO concept. And a final demonstration (D4.16) was held in June 2015 to the EC where the PROSPERO demonstrator was presented with respect to the use cases and it demonstrated the benefits and gains of such technologies and new proceses applicable to the safety management domain.
WP5 Case-Studies (M9-M36)
The overall objectives of WP5 were to organise and perform a set of Case Studies to support the actual development and implementation of the PROSPERO methodology at different levels of application. Three sets of Case Studies were designed and carried out in accordance with the three level of complexity of the PROSPERO approach. The case-sudies commenced at organisational level, in which each industrial stakeholder within the Consortium will develop and implement a case study properly shaped on its everyday activities. The second set of case studies, referred as systemic level case studies, proposes one common scenario focusing on integration of an operational situation engaging different types of stakeholders. Finally, the overall integrated PROSPERO approach enabled the implementation of a single case study at regulatory level, where all lessons learned in the previous case studies will be integrated in a regulatory perspective.
At organisational level, Five Case Studies were undertaken in the project, which ranged from new risk analysis based on cross-organizational big data analysis and predictive statistics to shared stakeholders change initiatives with very-long term horizons. The Case studies are as follows:
Case study 1 investigated the feasibility of identifying, integrating multiple data sets and domains (in ADR airport and AZ airline) successfully and identifying risk patterns as defined in Deliverable 3.6 and 3.8 of PROSPERO. A Key objective was to prove capacity of integrating and predicting bird-strike events as key hazard selected in the Project.
Case study 2 analysed the change and risks related to a complex procedural change in de-icing operations at the apron. A Change Management methodology was set and applied to test what kind of issues could arise from this change and how the company could manage and control risk in change.
Case Study 3 analysed the provision of a performance management system to support a full cycle of SMS on core operations for a small regional airport, linked to the airport core strategic objectives and the evaluation of the organizational changes initiated through this process. A combination of Prospective and Retrospective risk analysis support company operations and performance monitoring/evaluation.
Case Study 4 studied and supported the full implementation of ACDM at Arlanda airport. This involved the collaboration of a wide range of operational partners together with the airport authority.
Case Study 5 developed a risk metric for representing the complexity of air traffic in a sector to support air traffic controller decision-making and operational risk management. An ATM dashboard has been developed integrating aspects of complexity, safety and operations in air traffic control.
At systemic level: taken as a whole these case studies illustrate the PROSPERO system at the level of the Air Transport System (ATS). They illustrate both the operational loop of risk data and the change management loop, both of these involving different actors in the ATS. In essence, the “bird-strike” case study (Case Study 1) and the ATM complexity (Case Study 5) represent the Prospero Operational loop (combined as an ATS solution). The ADR and ACDM cases (Case Study 2 and 4) represent change; not just airport change, but also the other ATS partners. SAGA case about SMS implementation (Case study 3) represented both the Operational to the Change management loop with a whole system risk assessment airport, airline, ATM, emergency services - a complete system level case.
The case study at regulatory level consisted in a workshop held at the end of June 2015 at EASA premises in Cologne, with the following objectives:
• To present an overview of the PROSPERO concept and its realisation in a set of case studies;
• To discuss ways in which the PROSPERO approach addresses current regulatory activities in Europe concerning, for example, performance, safety, risk, reporting and organisational requirements;
• To discuss potential benefits for regulation and for national and European authorities that could arise from implementing the PROSPERO approach in aviation organisations;
• To address future developments in areas like software systems, safety services and research priorities.
The workshop combined presentations of the PROSPERO concept, the system and the case studies alongside presentations from EASA on: mandatory and voluntary reporting, SMS, risk assessment; performance of the whole Air Transport system. The EASA focus is to try to make this work as a system, not just as a set of rules and standards. Thus it is required under the reporting directive to report the analysis of the event and the implementation of actions, and to encourage more comprehensive voluntary reporting. They want to make the ECCAIRS database that holds all this data more accessible and usable by the aviation community. This is part of a shift in thinking towards considering regulation as part of a global SMS. EASA are very interested in large data, sharing of data between organisations and responded with interest to the ideas put forward about this being a knowledge business, and about gathering risk data from all the services along a process, integrating and then reapportioning the resulting risk information to each service provider according to its process, creating networks of sharing through nodes (airports, ATM) so that competing airlines are not forced to directly share, but only indirectly through common interest and common value. They were impressed with the range of work and the depth of involvement with the operational organisations. There was a good discussion on the issue of confidentiality and the possibility of configuring this in a slightly different way, including how protections could be built in. The Single European Sky is in Reference period 2 (2015-1019) but are already planning for RP3 (2020-). This is where they hope to be able to achieve an effective safety performance metric. PROSPERO could be seen as part of the solution to this. There are important opportunities both for a commercial PROSPERO solution and for a follow-on project to contribute tangibly to this strategic goal.
WP6 Validation (M2-M36)
WP 6 had two primary aims: (i) to deliver feedback, useful for refining and improving the project outcome during the project lifecycle, and (ii) to provide evidence about the fitness for purpose of the PROSPERO approach at the end of the project.
The validation activities in PROSPERO were based on the European Operational Concept Validation Methodology (E-OCVM). The validation approach was iterative, and was linked to the different technical work packages. The validation activities in PROSPERO were designed to provide feedback to the technical project activities, and to aggregate and to provide evidence about the fitness for purpose of the PROSPERO approach.
The validation work started in November 2012 (M1). During the period November 2012 – April 2013 (M1 – M6) the high-level validation strategy and validation plan for PROSPERO were developed. These are set out in deliverable 6-3 (submitted in April 2013). The deliverable describes the overall validation approach and validation objectives, the validation exercises undertaken thus far, and the plan for future validation activities during M7-M24. Interim findings from the validation were described in deliverable 6-15 (submitted in March 2014), and the final validation results were reported in deliverable 6-18 (submitted in December 2015).
WP7 Impact & Dissemination (M1-M36)
Work Package 7 started at the very beginning of the PROSPERO project. Its primary objective was to define and implement an integrated strategy for impact and dissemination that captured the project outputs and detailed how to communicate and exploit them within target audiences in industry as well as research communities, the wider aviation community and key institutional stakeholders. The overall exploitation and dissemination strategy has been effective. The key objectives were to:
• First, to capture the concepts, outputs and benefits of the project, and present them in an understandable and relevant way to the external audience – primarily lead and end users. These key stakeholders will then develop, implement and spread these results after the project is completed – and in doing so, ensure PROSPERO’s longevity.
• Second, to ensure a cohesive and clear understanding of the progress, outputs, benefits and implications of the PROSPERO project among all 14 partners. Effective communication within internal audiences throughout the project helps to keep the focus across work packages on industry needs.
• The objective of exploitation was to ensure the uptake of the results by lead users when the project has been completed. In PROSPERO, the dissemination and exploitation strategy was flexible, adaptable and scalable. The analysis of audiences, key messages and channels was ongoing and was evaluated and updated for the duration of the project.
The previous deliverable 7.5 outlined the initial dissemination and exploitation strategy for PROSPERO which detailed the key messages for the project, target audiences, dissemination channels and dissemination activities for the project. However, the analysis of audiences, messages and channels was ongoing throughout the project. They were continually evaluated and updated to ensure communications were always relevant, up to date and in pace with the progress of industry and research sectors.
The principle dissemination channels used throughout the lifetime of PROSPERO included:
• Online Communications: the project website, Twitter account, multimedia content, e-zines
• Marketing Materials: professionally designed pull-up stands, posters, brochures, business cards
• Media Relations
• Internal Communications
The principle exploitation activities conducted to ensure the PROSPERO solutions of knowledge creation, knowledge services and data services were applied beyond the project’s lifetime included:
• Development of the TCD Masters programme
• Attendance at industry and academic conferences and events
• Pilot studies of the PROSPERO solution
• Academic Dissemination
• Presentation in EU Parliament in Brussels
• Workshop with EASA in Cologne
• Final event and webinar in Dublin
• Networking at AeroDays Conference in London
2.3 Project Achievements
The key achievement of PROSPERO is to show that the core concept is right. The PROSPERO demonstration has shown the technical capability that underpins the concept. The logic of this is accepted by main stakeholders, both on the operational side and the research and development side. Organisational commitment from the operational partners has been demonstrated in the case studies.
Underlying this achievement is the realization that collaboration and data sharing between aviation partners is possible but difficult & slow. This is a major advance on the assumptions at the start of project, which were broadly skeptical of the projects ambitions. This involved the ddemonstration of value from initially simple to progressively more complex analyses. This progress built trust between the partners and ssustaining that trust was essential to the ccommitment to continue collaboration which has been produced by the project.
The project has delivered the capability to develop and deliver an operationally effective solution. Furthermore, there is considerable operational interest in participating in further development.
It has been shown that the integration of existing databases poses great challenges. There are sensitivities about process antecedents that could implicate crew or others in negative aspects of an analysis. The ‘ownership’ & control of databases in different silos (even within one organization) provide continuing barriers. Confidentiality of data as well as commercially sensitive areas both provides negative incentives to share.
For these reasons the routine flow of data that had been anticipated is not yet achieved. Instead the concept has been demonstrated through sspecific analyses of data. Again, the pprospective pattern matching of planning data is not yet achieved, but the capability to undertake that type of analysis has been demonstrated. This is important because of the ggreater leverage through designing-out / planning-to avoid the risk. A direct linking of organisational change to performance improvement is also not yet demonstrated. Realistically, given the pace of change programmes, and the time taken to develop analysis capabilities it would not have been realistic to demonstrate system performance improvement as a result of a change initiative within the timescale of the project.
The overall PROSPERO concept was presented at the EU Parliament in an event attended by key aviation stakeholders. A one-day workshop with EASA demonstrated the relevance of PROSPERO to a range of regulatory initiatives. These include the achieving of a Single European Sky safety performance framework, regulations on SMS, Voluntary and mandatory reporting and on Airport responsibility for safety.
The following risks were identified at the 18 month period. The table below summarises how those risks were mitigated.
Potential Risk/Challenge Mitigations
Availability of a comprehensive range of operational data to test system risk concept A shared database on bird strikes linking Aeroporti di Roma and Alitalia provided sufficient data for the system demonstration.
Functional integration of software in PROSPERO system The system demonstration delivered a sequence of operations by separate software systems demonstrating the functional integration of the PROSPERO system across different software components.
Achieving a feedback loop through aviation operations (operational loop) The Jeppesen ‘Door-to-door’ application provided a demonstration bringing risk information into the operation.
Achieving change evaluation loop The change loop was demonstrated through case studies in Swedavia, Aeroporti di Roma and SAGA.
Demonstration at regulatory level A one-day workshop with EASA demonstrated the relevance of PROSPERO to a range of regulatory initiatives. These include the achieving of a Single European Sky safety performance framework, regulations on SMS, Voluntary and mandatory reporting and on Airport responsibility for safety.
Prevention of delays Extending the delivery dates for key deliverables in WPs 4, 5 and 6, so as to more effectively use the whole 18-month period, with concurrent system integration, case studies and evaluation, allowed a more effective integrated outcome for the project as a whole.
Achieving evaluation objectives Delay in submitting the deliverable 6.4 for 3 months was helpful in the achievement of a coherent implementation of the plan over the final 18 months.
Developing exploitation plan The exploitation intentions of partners reflect a willingness to collaborate in the longer term – both in terms of further research and in establishing a commercial collaboration to develop the core PROSPERO concepts.
Table 1: Overview of Identified Risks & Mitigation Plans
1 Update on Work-Packages
1.1 WP 1 Project Management
1.1.1 Consortium Co-ordination & Project Management Meetings
There was on-going co-ordination at all levels of the work-programme throughout the duration of the project. During the duration of the project of the project there were ten high level strategic planning meetings took place where representatives from all partner organisations attended.
• The PROSPERO Advisory Board meeting & kick-off work-shop took place on the 21st & 22nd November 2012.
The objective of the work-shop on the first day was to present and discuss the goals and expectations from an industrial and regulatory perspective. Therefore we invited members of the Advisory Board to attend and give key-note presentations in order to ensure their influence on the development and direction of the project right from the onset of the project. Representatives from the PROSPERO Consortium also gave key note presentations from their experiences and current challenges facing the industry. Following the key outputs of the first day, the second day focused on the PROSPERO work-programme (specifically WP 1, 2 & 7), presenting the proposed collaborative learning framework for the project and to ensure all partners are familiar with all administrative and financial reporting requirements for EU projects. The PROSPERO Scientific Officer was in attendance on the second day.
• The second plenary meeting/work-shop took place on the 11th & 12th March 2013 June at Aeroporti di Roma in Rome.
The objectives of this two day workshop were to present the findings of the first phase of research, discuss the implications and agree on a number of industrial based change interventions.
• The third plenary meeting took place on the 31st July & 1st August, 2013 in Dublin
The objectives of this 2-day workshop were to review the most critical requirements for the future PROSPERO system functionality: from gathering risk data as inputs to the system to managing complex risk data. The workshop partners involved provided different lists of data types and sources (types of KPIs and SPIs) to meet such safety/risk functionality. Together with the selection of data types an agreement will be taken on the expected basic functionality and framework for the future PROSPERO system. The second key objective of the work-shop was to kick-start WP 5 and agree the guidelines for the PROSPERO Case-Studies.
• The fourth plenary meeting took place on the 24th & 25th September 2013 and was held in Dublin.
The key objectives of the two day meeting were to progress the work to date on the functional specification and agree the components of the overall PROSPERO System and to ensure overall system integration. To link the PROSPERO system concept to the case-studies, agree key action items in progressing the case studies and system integration. The overall strategy on the overall exploitation and dissemination for the PROSPERO system was also discussed.
• The fifth plenary meeting and Advisory Board meeting took place on the 8th and 9th of April 2014 in Rome
The overall objective of the first day was to provide and update the Advisory Board on the PROSPERO project. The focus of the meeting was to facilitate a walk-through of the PROSPERO system; further progress the implementation scenarios including the regulatory level case-study; EUROCONTROL to present on OPTICS as PROSPERO is on the list of projects to be evaluated by OPTICS (wrt ACARE safety-related goals); and to agree next steps. The focus of the second day centred on the PROSPERO System Integration, Developments, Use Cases and Scenarios for both WP4 and 5.
• The sixth plenary meeting (Mid-Term Review) took place on the 27th and 28th May 2014 in Athens International Airport.
The key objectives of day 1 were as follows (i) to review the progress of the PROSPERO project as the mid-term stage; (ii) to plan and prepare the PROSPERO ‘mock-up’ demonstrator; (iii) to plan the PROSPERO work-programme for next reporting period. The objectives of Day 2 were as follows: (i) is to provide an update and strategy going forward in relation to the overall validation of the project outputs; (ii) presentation on overall dissemination & exploitation strategy; (iii) project management requirements to fulfil the contractual requirements at M18; (iv) case-study planning.
• The seventh plenary meeting took place on the 1st and 2nd of October 2014 in Madrid.
The key objectives of day 1 were as follows: updating all partners on 18 month review: PROSPERO System Demo 1 presentation to EU; updating current status on system development & planning for demo 2; update and planning on case-studies. The objectives of day 2 were as follows: reporting back on the exploitation survey; running a work-shop to address issues around effective collaboration within & beyond the project; planning the dissemination activities for final year including work-shop with regulatory body; consolidation of all key action items for final year of project.
• The eight plenary meeting took place on the 4th February 2015 in Brussels.
This plenary meeting followed the very successful EU parliament event on the 3rd of February. The overall objectives of this PROSPERO plenary meeting is to agree the overall scope and project plan for the PROSPERO System demo 2 and the alignment of the technology capability with the case-studies development and exploitation plans.
• The ninth plenary meeting took place on the 6th and 7th May 2015 in Dublin
The overall objective of the meeting on the Day 1 was to progress the technological developments required for PROSPERO System Demo 2, focusing on presenting the 3 parts of the overall demonstrator (in a preliminary dry-run format) and eliciting feedback from project partners. Carr Communications will also run the first part of a dedicated work-shop on disseminating and exploiting the outputs from PROSPERO.
The overall objectives of the meeting on Day 2 was to progress the overall progress and validation of the PROSPERO Case-Studies, with a particular focus on the plans for the Regulatory Case-Study and Regulatory Work-Shop. Carr Communications will also run the first part of a dedicated work-shop on disseminating and exploiting the outputs from PROSPERO.
• The tenth and final plenary meeting took place on the 13th and 13th October 2015 in Dublin
The overall objectives of day 1 were to prepare for the final PROSPERO online dissemination event and to discuss and agree plans for developing the PROSPERO system beyond the project. The morning of day 2 was dedicated to running the final online PROSPERO dissemination event (09:30 – 12:00). The afternoon was dedicated to going through the formalities of finalising PROSPERO. PROSPERO hosted its final dissemination event with a blended approach of on-site as well as on-line. The Dublin based partners gathered in a Dublin conference centre, while other participants joined the event through a live web-link. This event addressed the benefits and results of the project and also outlined the future for the project results.
Participants were from EASA, European Commission, SESAR, civil defense organisations, and a number of airlines, airports and private sector companies
EASA work-shop
In between these ten high level plenary meetings there was on-going communication both between the research partners and between the researchers and end-user organisations. This on-going communication (weekly basis) was greatly facilitated by on-line meeting utilising both Go-To-Meeting technology and skype as well as a number of bilateral face-face meetings.
The Project Co-ordinator played a very active role in participating in meetings and workshops across all strands of work. This level of participation was necessary in order to ensure overall PROSPERO objectives were maintained and further developed in line with the specified work programme.
Overall the project has been successful in achieving a high level of co-ordination, communication and ensuring an integrated and synergetic approach to all aspects of research activities and project management.
1.1.2 Project-Place
Project Place (PP) is one of the leading social project-collaboration software platforms and it was introduced right from the onset of the project in order to manage all project activities and ensure ongoing communication and project visibility. All members of the project registered and actively used the platform as per the guidelines set down in the PROSPERO project management hand book. The key functionalities of ProjectPlace included document management, document review & updates (version management), email communication, overall time-line and calendar entries.. A team of administrators had the overall responsibility for the ongoing moderation and engagement of the platform.
1.1.3 Accession of New Partners to PROSPERO Consortium
Due to the withdrawal of ENAV during the negotiation phase of the PROSPERO project the funds allocated to them were retained by TCD with the objective of re-distributing these funds to a replacement partner(s). While ENAV did withdraw as a full partner they had agreed to become a member of the PROSPERO Advisory Board. The formal process of finalising the inclusion of SAGA and Swedavia was not finalised until June 2014. However SAGA have officially joined the Consortium on the 1st of October 2013 and Swedavia on the 1st April 2014.
1.2 WP2 Definition of Requirements
The overall objectives of the definition of requirements work package were to define the system of systems and identify needs for various stakeholders within the overall system. The objective of doing that is to further validate, define and develop the PROSPERO operational concept that was initially presented in the proposal as well as to guide the way forward in the following project work packages. PROSPERO adopts a needs-based approach that can be validated against end-user acceptability and stakeholder assessment of domain suitability.
The output of WP2 was a very detailed, thorough and expanive report (D2.2) in order to make transparent all the activities and results derived in this WP2, including: the initial proposed PROSPERO concept, the methodolgy used for this work package, the field research with description of the current context and identified industrial needs as well as gaps between the envisioned system, current context and needs, resulting definitions of requirements for research, and finally a discussion on what is to be prioritized, developed and implemented in the life time of the PROSPERO project.
D2.2 contains 10 chapters as follows:
• Chapter 1: Introduction of PROSPERO and WP2
• Chapter 2: Initial PROSPERO operational concept
• Chapter 3: Methodology
• Chapter 4: Field research – organizational level
• Chapter 5: Field research – regulatory level
• Chapter 6: Field research – system level (combinations of the above)
• Chapter 7: Risk assessment approaches and issues in industry and PROSPERO
• Chapter 8: Progression of the PROSPERO concept development
• Chapter 9: Revised PROSPERO model
• Chapter 10: Identified required research and implementation implications of the PROSPERO operational concept
The short duration of WP2 (six working months) did pose a challenge considering the enormous complexity of the research required for this concept at this stage of the project as well as the many stakeholders across the ATS. The research partners managed to meet and collect data from all stakeholders including end-users as well as providers of technologies. Academic researchers also provided theoretical frameworks. The Advisory Board extended this reach to include regulators, authorities and expertise in various fields. Additional participants for data collection were selected based upon established contacts or regional closeness.
Investigations and field studies (e.g. interviews, document analysis, observations, work-shops etc.) have been conducted focusing on the risk information systems and organizational learning processes for managing safety performance described in the PROSPERO model.
• Two partner meetings were held, the Kick-off meeting and the Rome Workshop
• Two workshops with several service providers forming a local system was conducted, one in Athens and one in Rome.
• Approximately 10 interviews were performed with industry or regulatory representatives
• One survey was launched for Star Alliance partners (6 replies so far)
• A common risk classification study was performed with four industrial partners
In the proposal these themes were identified as challenges and promises how the operational concept in PROSPERO was to respond to these were initially discussed:
• Quantitative risk assessment
• Common integrated risk analysis
• Operational management of risk
• Preparation for emergencies
• Risk managing design and change
• Regulating risk
The initial operational concepts were described as two cycles derived from a common process of risk information production. The two cycles were an Operational loop and a Learning loop.
In summary the key findings from WP2 include
• A revised operational concept (See figure 5) revised model of the various organizational and system levels (see figures 3, 4) was developed
• Industry validation of the themes for future needs.
A revised operational concept
A revised operational concept (See figure 5) and revised model of the various system levels (see figures 3, 4) was developed. The main development was to let the model reflect the identified main research themes of risk information production, customisation and distribution to the two loops of real time operational risk management and management processes enabling operational process improvement through the loop of System improvement and change.
Figure 1Organisational level
Figure 2 System level
Figure 3 System of system including the Regulatory level
Industry validation of the themes for future needs.
The two themes of industrial needs that were strongly articulated in the field research are quantitative risk assessment and the common integrated risk analysis. The field research did not show as strong evidence for industrial needs for the other four areas: operational management of risk, preparation for emergencies, risk-managing design and change, and regulating risk. The research themes of Quantitative risk assessment and the Common integrated risk analysis are both essential parts of the Risk Information Production function. In the revised model of the PROSPERO concept, risk information production includes the steps of: collecting data, risk assessment and data analysis, customisation for intended use and distribution of the risk information to the user(s). Of these functions the theoretically most challenging area is the risk assessment. When this is resolved it will enable a “pull” of identified relevant risk data from various sources, system levels and stakeholders.
The R&D needs of PROSPERO involve a complex combination of methodologies, information systems and software, organisational processes, and social and business relations between stakeholders. Each of these requires a specific research focus, but not in isolation - rather, as a multi-layered systems integration project. These needs now should be expressed as a set of requirements against which PROSPERO can clearly demonstrate the feasibility (in terms of technical criteria, rules and procedures, organisational capabilities, etc.) of a data-driven framework with common methodologies to understand risk in air transport as a system, and to show how to use that knowledge to mitigate risk in everyday operations and to radically transform the risk through future system design.
1.3 WP3 Design & Preparation
The overall objectives of WP3 Design and Preparation were to define the key functional requirements and specifications of the future PROSPERO system. In particular, a series of research and development activities resulted in the following deliveries:
1) (WP3 Task 1a) - A selection of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for risk data types and operational information. This has been obtained by the definition of a Prospero General KPIs List composed by:
a. identification of KPIs ready to access for Airports
b. identification of KPIs ready to access for Airlines
c. identification of KPIs ready to access for ATM services
The overall number of KPIs potentially available in July 2014 is 718.
2) (WP3 Task 1b) – Preparation of the new PROSPERO risk methodology service integrating known (and mandatory) risk methods with a brand new data-driven risk approaches. This has been designed by having
a. Expert Risk Models (known/mandatory risk methodologies) leading actual risk data analysis (e.g. Data Science approach)
b. Real risk data availability informing back Expert Risk Models
An integration of data-driven and (risk) model-driven approaches to risk assessment has been put forward
3) (WP3-Task 2 and Task 3) New functions and functional requirements dedicated to risk information distribution and systems have been specified:
a. Communication and distribution protocols (Jeppesen)
b. Integration Strategy approach (Thales)
4) (WP3-T4) - The organizational readiness and competency requirements to implement technically the PROSPERO system has been specified
a. Learning and Mentoring framework requirements
b. SMS and Regulatory requirements and Prospero systems
c. Case Studies and Prospero functionalities
The T4 initiated also the application of structured enquiries to assess the level of preparedness to system changes in the PROSPERO framework.
All the above achievements are fully described in Deliverable D3.6 (see D3.6). This Deliverable targeted the four key core elements of the PROSPERO architecture as follows:
1. Data Providers (DP):
a. The end users providing access to risk data
2. Risk Information Analysis Providers (RIAP)
a. The network of services to organise and process risk data
3. Risk Intelligence Distribution Providers (RIDP)
a. The network of services that allows the risk data exchange and communication
4. Risk Intelligence Use (RIU):
a. The end users receiving the new knowledge on risk and how to apply such knowledge for risk management, advanced SMS uses, system design and change management uses.
The Output of D3.6 will feed into WP4 (Prospero System Integration) and WP5 (to develop Case Studies to meet Prospero Functions)
Deviation: Deliverable D3.6 was postponed for submission at end of October instead of End of September.
Finally Deliverable D3.8 extended the previous Deliverable D3.6 by targeting the required data and information flow specifications together with expected PROSPERO tasks and process logics as well as dedicated future PROSPERO system roles.
Such complex modelling efforts has focused on the total functional requirements and specifications to sustain the design and development of a new system for proactive safety risk monitoring, control and change processes.
Deliverable 3.8 provided a detailed modelling of the PROSPERO system as (see D3.8):
• PROSPERO Information Flow system – mapping the step-by-step data transfer / communication flow across the PROSPERO system users
• PROSPERO Aviation Integration Process – mapping the tasks and actions of coordinated multi-partners developing system risk models
• PROSPERO Role maps – mapping all expected roles allocated to various risk functions
The Output of D3.6 will feed into WP4 (Prospero System Integration) and WP5 (to develop Case Studies to meet Prospero Functions).
Also, in the WP3 – Task 4 it was necessary to develop and provide a PROSPERO Consent Form to facilitate data and information flow exchanges across multiple partners that would not generally acting in collaborative decision making modes.
1.4 WP4 Develop & Integrate
The WP4 objectives were to “Develop and Integrate” the PROSPERO system demonstrator to assess PROSPERO concept and capacities. The demonstrator is oriented to the production, the distribution and the use of risk information based on data collections from stakeholders (Airline/airport/ATC) and data analytics to support risk analysis and risk monitoring. It made use of the design preparation and specification from WP3 and the case studies proposed by WP5.
In June 2014, the first half-period of WP4 activities was concluded by a presentation of the PROSPERO demonstrator concept (D4.9) to the European Commission enabling the PROSPERO technical capacities in a standalone approach (i.e. no integration) with a restricted set of data. However, this demonstration strengthened the confidence within the whole PROSPERO concepts
The second half-period of activities was to select a physical architecture as “backbone” of the technical capacities and to integrate them. The main activities managed during this period were:
▪ The technical definition and the selection of the architecture relevant to the project context and challenges.
▪ The development and the software adaptation finalization of the enabling capacities to support the case studies: e.g. data mining algorithms and interfaces development, pattern matching interface adaptation, EFB risk information interface development...
▪ The integration of the overall IT means and the datasets provided by the end-user partners: e.g. integration of bird strike safety data from an airline and an airport into the data integration platform.
▪ The run of PROSPERO process through the demonstrator and the results analysis.
Due to the number of interfaces and partners involved within the demonstrator development and integration, a work effort of coordination was required: Weekly meetings were installed to synchronize WP4 partners progresses on their developments and integrations in addition of the technical workshops required to validate a common orientations and solutions.
Furthermore, due to the data sensitiveness handling, a specific management focus was applied for data collection. The objective was to clarify the type/volume/quality of data required and to support the end-user partners in the process of sharing them within the project context for the purpose of the demonstration. In spite of these efforts, the collected data required to restrict the demonstration/demonstrator scope. For instance, the PROSPERO demonstrator was not connected to real time data source to enable pattern matching. This capacity was performed and demonstrated on a simulated dataset extracted from the collected data.
These WP4 activity achievements ended to the successful final demonstration (D4.16) in June 2015 to the EC where the PROSPERO platform demonstrator was presented through the demonstration of 3 case studies. Although the collaboration at systemic level (i.e. between organizations) is a real challenge in sharing data (not from technical perspective), it was demonstrated that even with few operational datasets from different stakeholders, the data analysis brings value in risk assessment and monitoring. The predictive capacities are an innovative safety approach which focuses on the precursor’s analysis to better monitor operations and changes.
1.5 WP5 Case-Studies
WP5 started in July 2013 during a project meeting in Dublin, while the Consortium was exploring the internal capabilities compatible with the emerging PROSPERO architecture. It has been extended right until the end of the project as opposed to ending in M30 as indicated in the DoW. This extension was required in order to capture a more fuller account of fulfillment of the case-studies as systemic level.
An important Work Package 5 meeting was held in Milan in December 2013, during which, according to the development of the PROSPERO concept, the entire consortium was questioned and invited to agree/discuss the general approach to follow in managing the case studies development. During this event, scenarios for the organizational level case studies have been decided, matching some of the needs expressed during Work Package 2 activities.
In Task 5.1 – Set up and implementation of Case studies at Organizational level, the industrial stakeholders have performed the selected case studies on the basis of a questionnaire, subdivided into two phases. The first phase, more general, described the state of the art in each organization for the collection, availability and analysis of safety related data and for the execution of risk analysis. The second phase narrowed down on the development of a real risk evaluation, asking for information on how a risk assessment is actually carried out within the Organization, by following each step of the internal procedure.
The outcomes of this activity were presented at the project meetings in Dublin (February 2014) and in Rome (April 2014), and all partners were updated on similarities and differences arising from the various feedbacks received.
Results of this activity and of the comparative analysis are reported in Deliverable D. 5.10 - Report on case studies at organizational level, which was submitted to the EC at the end of April 2014. This Deliverable firstly summaries the tight links with previous work packages and illustrates the activities carried in the first part of Work Package 5. Then, it describes the development of case studies and introduces some important preparatory notions for the development of the integrated PROSPERO-tool and for the performance of case studies at systemic level.
Task 5.2 – Set up and implementation of case studies at system level started at the beginning of May 2014. For these case studies, three scenarios had been depicted, namely:
1. Air Transport System Risk Assessment based on Shared Data between Airlines and Airports;
2. Managing the Risk of Change In European Airports (compromising the ADR, SAGA & Swedavia case-studies);
3. Simulation of ATM Performance and Risk.
They aimed at demonstrating the theoretical solidity of the innovative PROSPERO approach as well as the requirements for its implementation, exploiting the variety of partners composing the project Consortium. As stated by the three cases studies’ titles, the PROSPERO concept has been modeled upon different sectors of the aviation operational reality, proving how this approach can easily adapt to various operative needs. They also proved the richness of aggregated data in terms of risk information, as well as the benefits of using more advanced data mining techniques instead of simple statistical tools. Finally, they clearly stated the difficulties in implementing into a competitive sectors such approach, which poses its basis upon the sharing of data between different stakeholders.
Results of this activity and of the comparative analysis are reported in Deliverable D. 5.14 - Report on Case Studies at System Level.
Task 5.3 – Set up and implementation of case study at regulatory level started at the beginning of February 2015 and it consisted in a workshop held at the end of June 2015 at EASA premises in Cologne, with the following objectives:
• To present an overview of the PROSPERO concept and its realisation in a set of case studies;
• To discuss ways in which the PROSPERO approach addresses current regulatory activities in Europe concerning, for example, performance, safety, risk, reporting and organisational requirements;
• To discuss potential benefits for regulation and for national and European authorities that could arise from implementing the PROSPERO approach in aviation organisations;
• To address future developments in areas like software systems, safety services and research priorities.
From the fruitful and intense discussion, many contacts point between the two approaches have been remarked, showing how PROSPERO is the most advanced means of compliance with an emerging proactive, performance-based and systemic regulatory framework, in which the implementation of a Safety Management System in single organisations adds value to the safety of the overall system.
Report of the event, description of both EASA and PROSPERO modi operandi and comparative analysis are reported in Deliverable D. 5.17 - Report on Case-Study at Regulatory Level.
1.6 WP6 Validation
The validation activities in PROSPERO were based on the European Operational Concept Validation Methodology (E-OCVM). The validation approach was iterative, and was linked to the different technical work packages. The validation activities in PROSPERO were designed to provide feedback to the technical project activities, and to aggregate and to provide evidence about the fitness for purpose of the PROSPERO approach.
The validation work started in November 2012 (M1). During the period November 2012 – April 2013 (M1 – M6) the high-level validation strategy and validation plan for PROSPERO were developed. These are set out in deliverable 6-3 (submitted in April 2013). The deliverable describes the overall validation approach and validation objectives, the validation exercises undertaken thus far, and the plan for future validation activities during M7-M24. Interim findings from the validation were described in deliverable 6-15 (submitted in March 2014), and the final validation results were reported in deliverable 6-18 (submitted in December 2015).
PROSPERO started at phase V0 of the operational life cycle model (ATM needs) and was expected to progress through V1 (scope) to V2 (feasibility). The mapping between project activities, operational concept maturity levels, and the stakeholders who are involved is shown in Table xxx.
WP Maturity Level Stakeholders
WP2 – Definition of requirements V0 ATM needs
Research community, technology providers, ANSP, airlines, airports, regulatory bodies
WP3 – Design and prepare V0 ATM needs
V1 Scope
Research community, technology providers, ANSP, airlines, airports, regulatory bodies
WP4 – Develop and integrate V2 Feasibility Technology providers, ANSP, airlines, airports, regulatory bodies
WP5 – Case study finalisations V1 Scope
V2 Feasibility Technology providers, ANSP, airlines, airports, regulatory bodies
Table 2 Project activities, maturity levels, and stakeholders
Validation of the PROSPERO operational concept utilised a qualitative and realist approach. Validation at levels V0 and V1 was based predominantly on feedback from stakeholders elicited through focus groups and workshops, and semi-structured interviews. Validation at level V2 was based on a realist approach. A realist approach aims not only to establish whether an intervention has led to improvements in outcomes in real-world settings – but also how these changes have come about, i.e. a description of the mechanisms that brought about change, and of the context within which the change took place.
Validation activities have been carried out as follows:
V0 – ATM Needs Exposition of research methods to provide confidence in the research results, and participant validation in stakeholder workshops. ATM needs have been documented in Deliverable D2-2.
V1 - Scope Stakeholder workshops, semi-structured interviews with stakeholders. The PROSPERO operational concept has been specified in Deliverable D3-6, and then in revised form in Deliverable D3-8.
V2 - Feasibility Realist evaluation of case studies. Case studies have been described in Deliverable D5-10 and Deliverable D5-17.
Key findings from the validation are:
V0 – ATM Needs A robust approach utilising three key research instruments was followed in order to identify ATM needs: (a) identification of research gaps through literature reviews, (b) elicitation of stakeholder needs through structured interviews, and (c) refinement and validation of stakeholder needs in workshops.
A purposive sample of air traffic system stakeholders provided refinement and validation of the identified stakeholder needs in three stakeholder workshops. Participants reached a shared vision of the PROSPERO aims and high-level stakeholder needs, as well as an appreciation of what higher-level needs might mean for specific stakeholders.
V1 - Scope The development of the PROSPERO functional specification was supported and validated through a series of stakeholder workshops. At each workshop, participants reviewed progress, actively contributed to the refinement of the functional specification, and provided feedback for further development.
Analysis of semi-structured interviews with stakeholders suggests that: (a) project participants achieved consensus about the project aims, (b) the first functional specification (D3-6) required further detail and consideration of all stakeholder groups, which was subsequently achieved in the revised functional specification (D3-8), and the case studies should aim to provide detail about how the PROSPERO functionality contributes to satisfying ATM needs in practice.
V2 - Feasibility PROSPERO functionality has been validated in three case studies: (a) managing the risk of change in European airports, (b) Air transport system risk assessment based on shared data between airports and airlines, and (c) supporting compliance with and satisfaction of European regulatory requirements.
The following functions have been successfully validated: (1) Structured Enquiry to support change management loop, (2) data sharing among aviation stakeholders, (3) data integration, (4) data mining, (5) risk pattern matching, and (6) risk intelligence distribution.
Further work Challenges that should be investigated in further work include:
(a) Access to data and data quality remain a crucial issue. Ways for overcoming barriers to data sharing should be investigated, and the benefits of data sharing need to be clearly articulated and demonstrated to stakeholders.
(b) The bird strike example was a convenient case study as it facilitated access to data, but it limited the utility of the PROSPERO functions. Further case studies should explore the extent to which the data integration, data mining, risk pattern matching, and risk intelligence distribution functions enhance the existing risk model for other types of events.
(c) The bird strike example operated with partially simulated data. Further work should investigate the feasibility of data integration, data mining, risk pattern matching and risk intelligence distribution in a live environment with large amounts of disparate data.
(d) At the regulatory level, further work should explore practical ways in which PROSPERO can support not only compliance with regulatory requirements, but also facilitate regulatory oversight functions themselves.
1.7 WP7 Impact & Dissemination
In the PROSPERO project Description of Work, we set out a comprehensive list of the dissemination and exploitation objectives for WP7 and the wider project. In summary, to:
• Keep the entire project focused on projected industry needs
• Review how well PROSPERO addressed those needs
• Define and implement an integrated strategy for impact and dissemination (capturing project outputs and how to communicate and exploit them within target audiences in industry, research communities, wider aviation community and key institutional stakeholders)
• Establish an Advisory Board
• Provide regular, active, real-time engagement and information about the project and its results to target audiences
• Establish links with international research networks and ongoing EU and national projects on topics related to safety in particular where standardisation issues are considered
• Promote the results and benefits of the project
• Make the results and benefits of the developed outputs attractive and known to industry, by focusing on the exploitation and impact of the research. (In the later months of the PROSPERO project, as results became available, it became clear that the PROSPERO concept was of interest to more specialist audiences, rather than generalist and mass media, as initially thought earlier in the project. For this reason, media relations were subsequently targeted at specialist media including aviation, technology, business and EU specialists.)
Significant progress was made across each of these objectives, as outlined in WP7 deliverables, most recently - D7.19 Dissemination and Exploitation Strategy (review) (M36) and D7.22 Dissemination Report (review) (M36).
The Dissemination and Learning Framework was developed during the first year of the project. This provided an overview on all dissemination efforts and priorities across the project under the following headings:
• Industry needs
• Key messages – benefits of the PROSPERO system
• Target audiences
• Dissemination channels and activities – internal learning and collaboration
• Dissemination channels – external
• Dissemination activities
We identified the most appropriate channels to reach the key target audiences for PROSPERO. We include a brief summary of some of the main achievements under dissemination channels. For a more detailed description, please refer to D7.22.
Website
• The PROSPERO website and online dissemination have been an important element of engagement with PROSPERO key target audiences.
• The PROSPERO website (www.prosperofp7.eu) went live in on 12th December 2012, within six weeks of the project start date.
• Google Analytics reported that the project website www.prosperofp7.eu had received 1,022 visits up to 21 April 2014, divided evenly between new and returning visitors.
• The project website had received over 3,000 visitors up to October 2015. Of these visitors, over one quarter were return visitors while almost 75 percent were new visitors.
Social Media
Twitter has proven to be a very successful dissemination channel for the project:
• We have written almost 700 Tweets, are Following 1,332 stakeholders in the aviation and related industries; and we have attracted 286 Followers.
• Twitter analytic reports demonstrate the high levels of engagement. In one particular week the PROSPERO profile was viewed 342 times.
• During the lifetime of the project we continually engaged with the PROSPERO network, utilising hashtags and becoming involved in conversations.
Videos & Digital Media
A dedicated, PROSPERO-branded YouTube channel was set up to present the project videos. The videos were also made available on the PROSPERO website’s video gallery section.
We have produced a series of videos to disseminate results and benefits of the project in an easy-to-understand way:
• An introduction to the PROSPERO Project by the project coordinator, Professor Nick McDonald from Trinity College, Dublin. (Filmed July 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLVSV2XNtBw
• An introductory overview to the project featuring representatives from some of the project partner organisations. (Filmed July 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lkm2uaxpko
• A mid-project overview by project coordinator, Professor Nick McDonald. (Filmed December 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiCiQuy56kE
• A mid-project assessment of progress featuring representatives from some of the project partner organisations. (Filmed December 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkvLTWJCz4k
Additionally, we produced an internal video to capture an interactive workshop held at the Dublin meeting in February 2014. Although not for public use, it has been shown to all of the partners.
A number of videos of interviews with Advisory Board members, were filmed at the Rome meeting in April 2014. The members were asked about the potential of the PROSPERO project and how it meets industry needs. Feedback from all participants was very positive.
The videos are now available on YouTube at the below links. They have had 90 views overall.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaVSciq5gbI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8P3HXFr3yU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izsauyGqWh0
An animation video was produced to explain the PROSPERO concept at the European Parliament event in February 2015. This video was very well received at the event, and was uploaded to YouTube. Up until the 4th of November 2105, it had achieved 190 views on YouTube.
The video is available to view on YouTube at the following link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebBaVEwPHIE
Videos have also been used under Dissemination Channels and Activities for Internal Learning and Collaboration, such as:
a. Webinars which have been recorded and uploaded to the website
b. Videos used during training sessions and packages
Posters / Brochures and Pop-Up / Newsletters
Poster
Six posters were produced throughout the PROSPERO project lifetime. These posters have been used for dissemination purposes, as well as to reinforce the PROSPERO brand at industry events, dissemination events, as well as at PROSPERO internal meetings.
The six posters are:
• Main Project Poster (August 2014)
• Aeordays System Poster (September 2015)
• Aerodays Network Poster (September 2015)
• Main Project Poster Updated (October 2015)
• Network Poster (October 2015)
• System Poster (October 2015)
Brochures
Two iterations of the PROSPERO brochure were created during the project. The brochures explain in simple terms, using a series of graphics, the key messages and models developing during the lifetime of PROSPERO. They outline the caliber of the research organisations that form the project’s consortium. The content for the brochure was created by Carr Communications in collaboration with Trinity College Dublin, the project’s coordinator. The brochure used similar graphics to those used in the project’s poster series to ensure the key research focus of PROSPERO was communicated. The design of the brochure is consistent with the poster series to enhance the awareness of the PROSPERO brand. The project brochure was an important dissemination tool to draw the attention and interest of aviation industry and academic audiences. The content in the brochure was quite technical and the key message is the added benefit PROSPERO will provide for those in the aviation sector. A PDF file of the brochure was uploaded to ProjectPlace, the internal communications site for the project. It was available for all project partners to download and print in advance of industry conferences and events.
Pop-Up stand
Carr Communication’s in-house designer created a pop-up stand for the project in January 2015. A pop-up stand is an important brand awareness and identification tool for events and conferences. It assists in the promotion of projects among key audiences, specifically industry and academia. The design of the pop-up stand complemented the colour palette and style of the PROSPERO poster series and brochure to ensure consistency in the project’s brand. The pop-up stand was used at a number of key events during the lifetime of PROSPERO including the European Parliament event in Brussels on 3 February 2015 and the Aerodays 2015 conferences in London on 20-23 October.
For further information on visual materials, please refer to D7.19 and D7.22.
Newsletters
Two issues of the PROSPERO e-newsletter have been released. The most recent edition was released in August 2015. The second PROSPERO e-newsletter featured an article by Siobhan Corrigan, KTH and Mark Sujan along with an article on "Performance Management in a Regional Airport", focusing on Abruzzo Airport, co-written by Diana Del Sordo, M.Chiara Leva and Fabio Mattei. More information is available at this link: http://www.prosperofp7.eu/news/32-prospero-e-newsletter-issue-2
The first PROSPERO e-newsletter was released in July 2014. It featured articles by partners on The PROSERO Concept, The PROSPERO System, Integrated data and model driven approaches to risk assessment in PROSPERO, Data science and PROSPERO, and Validation in PROPERO. Please see a link to newsletter one: http://www.prosperofp7.eu/news/23-prospero-e-newsletter-issue-1
PROSPERO partners have were actively engaged in drafting content for the newsletter and in circulating it amongst their networks. The two PROSPERO
e-newsletters have enjoyed a combined estimated online readership of over 300.
Conference and Journal Articles
We created an initial list of target journals (with impact factors), as set out in D7.11. These included:
• Aviation Safety Letter
• Aviation, Space and Environmental Medicine
• Journal of Air transport management
• Progress in Aerospace Sciences
• Aerospace Science and Technology
• International Journal of Aviation Management
• Journal of Airport Management (already approached – Summer ‘14)
• International Journal of Aviation Psychology
• Journal of Cognition, Technology & Work
• Safety Science
• Journal of Risk and Reliability
The Journal of Airport Management requested the PROSOPERO project to submit a paper, which was published in September 2014.
Conferences / Workshops
We started by compiling a list of aviation safety-related conferences, which we included on the PROSPERO website under ‘Upcoming Events’. As with the target journals, the PROSPERO partners prioritised the events to target, according to relevance. Please see D7.11 Academic Dissemination for details on speaking opportunities that have been secured at major conferences, as well as information on University Courses and Theses.
PROSPERO has submitted papers at the following conferences:
Sujan, M.A. Frau, N., & Mc Donald, N (2015). Towards a Realist Validation of an Aviation System Operational Concept – Preliminary findings from the PROSPSERO FP7 project. ESREL Conference, 7-10 September 2015, Zurich, Switzerland
Corrigan, S, & Ledin, A. (2015). Building Bridges for Working Together: Collaboration in Action: PROSPERO Work-Shop. ACI Airport Leadership & Change Summit, Istanbul 8-10 December
Baranzini, D., and Zanin, M. (2015). Risk Prediction & Risk Intelligence in Aviation – the next generation of aviation risk concepts from PROSPERO FP7 Project. ESREL 2015 - 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference.
Corrigan, S., Mc Donald, N., Baranzini, D., and Ulfvengren, P. (2015) Managing the Risk of Change: A New Approach. ESREL 2015 - 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference.
Corrigan, S., Mc Donald, N., and Baranzini, D (2014). Managing the Risk of Change. 31st EAAP Conference, Malta.
Stogsdill, M., Ulfvengren, P., Baranzini, D., Corrigan S., and McDonald, N. (2014). Sharing is Caring: A Discussion for Combining Risk Information. In Human Factors In Organizational Design And Management – XI. Nordic Ergonomics Society Annual Conference – O. Broberg, N. Fallentin, P. Hasle, P.I. Jensen, A. Kabel, M.E. Larsen, T. Weller (Editors).
PROSPERO also presented at AERODAYS in October in 2105, and at ACI Technical Ops in Edinburgh in September 2015.
Media Implementation Plan
At the beginning of PROSPERO’s lifetime, we had initially aimed our media strategy at general audiences and at mass media. Based on this, we developed a media relations implementation plan for the PROSPERO project (M18-M36), based on key audiences to target, and dissemination activity across the media channels available, such as:
• National print media
• National broadcast media (TV and radio)
• Regional print media
• Regional broadcast media (TV and radio)
• Specialist publications – aviation
• Scientific publications / journals
• EU dissemination resources
• Online media / blogs
The first step in the media relations implementation plan was to create a Europe-wide circulation list of key media. In order to do this, we set up a series of meetings with the communications managers of partner organisations in different countries. This allowed us to utilise existing media relationships and key contacts across the project.
Project partners have also cooperated with us to translate press releases in to their own languages, and circulate them through their companies’ communications offices, and among their specialist media contacts.
As mentioned above media relations were subsequently targeted at specialist media to reflect the specialist audiences interested in the PROSPERO concept. An updated media contact list is included as an Appendix to D7.22.
Press releases were issued for:
-the European Parliament event in February 2015
-to mark the conclusion of the project and to communicate its main achievements and findings.
These press releases were sent to the specialist audiences referred to above.
Issuing of the final project press release was postponed due to the Russian airplane crash over Egypt in November 2015. Once this event had dropped from the news cycle, the final press release was issued in a variety of PROSPERO partner countries, thanks to the cooperation of project partners. The press release enjoyed good pick-up in Italy, and was published in the newsletter of the European Commission Representation in Ireland.
For further information on media activities, please refer to D7.19.
PROSPERO Dissemination Events
a) European Parliament Event February 2015
PROSPERO organized a dissemination event in the European Parliament in February 2015. The event was hosted by MEP Seán Kelly (EPP) and aimed to communicate key PROSPERO results to date to influential stakeholders, policy makers and industry leaders. MEP Kelly is a full member of the European Parliament Industry and Research Committee (ITRE) and therefore provided an invaluable audience for PROSPERO. Invitees included MEPs on relevant European Parliament committees such as Industry and Research (ITRE) and Transport (TRAN), key European Commission officials including the Project Officer and representatives of DG Research and Transport, and officials from key European organisations such as Eurocontrol and SESAR JU.
The event was moderated by MEP Marian-Jean Marinescu. MEP Marinescu is a full member of the European Parliament Committee on Transport and Tourism, and is a substitute member of the ITRE committee. He has delivered speeches in European Parliament Plenary sessions on civil aviation and has acted as rapporteur on European Parliament reports on the implementation of the SESAR JU budget.
http://www.eppgroup.eu/mep/Marian-Jean-MARINESCU
The event attracted participants from different European airports, from research institutes, national aviation authorities, European Parliament groups and IATA, EU Single Sky and ACI Europe. The final attendance ensured that PROSPERO results to date, and the benefits of the project were brought to an influential and engaged audience.
Please see link of summary video recorded at the PROSPERO EP event:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjJcGJ-AbTA
b) PROSPERO EASA workshop, June 2015
On the 30th of June 2015, PROSPERO partners met with the EU’s aviation regulator, EASA in Cologne, to discuss the tangible benefits of the PROSPERO system for the EU’s aviation industry.
Partners from PROSPERO and officials from EASA had a very constructive meeting to discuss the outcomes and exploitable benefits of the PROSPERO project in terms of improving aviation safety and regulation within the EU. EASA was complimentary about the significant work undertaken by PROSPERO in order to develop an all-inclusive predictive and safety forecasting system for industry and end users.
Prospero project coordinator, Trinity College Dublin, presented a high level overview of the PROSPERO system which addressed:
• Reducing the risk of emergent factors in change
• Evolution of safety management from reactive to predictive
• Key case studies of the PROSPERO system
Officials from EASA provided updates to PROSPERO partners in specific areas such as:
• Mandatory and voluntary reporting
• SMS
• Risk assessment
• Performance of the whole Air Transport System
PROSPERO and EASA partners agreed that there is a shift towards considering regulation as part of the global SMS. Officials from EASA expressed their support for the future commercialisation of the PROSPERO system as the Reporting Directive encourages more voluntary reporting, and the PROSPERO system can deliver a streamlined system for reporting on risk factors and patterns which would benefit airlines and traffic controllers.
c) Final PROSPERO Dissemination Event, October 2105
PROSPERO hosted their final dissemination event with a blended approach of on-site as well as on-line. The Dublin based partners gathered in a Dublin conference centre, while other participants joined the event through a live weblink. This event addressed the benefits and results of the project and also outlined the future for the project results.
Participants were from EASA, European Commission, SESAR, civil defense organisations, and a number of airlines, airports and private sector companies
Potential Impact:
In the PROSPERO project Description of Work, a comprehensive list of the dissemination and exploitation objectives was agreed. In summary, to:
• Keep the entire project focused on projected industry needs
• Review how well PROSPERO addressed those needs
• Define and implement an integrated strategy for impact and dissemination (capturing project outputs and how to communicate and exploit them within target audiences in industry, research communities, wider aviation community and key institutional stakeholders)
• Establish an Advisory Board
• Provide regular, active, real-time engagement and information about the project and its results to target audiences
• Establish links with international research networks and ongoing EU and national projects on topics related to safety in particular where standardisation issues are considered
• Promote the results and benefits of the project
• Make the results and benefits of the developed outputs attractive and known to industry, by focusing on the exploitation and impact of the research. (In the later months of the PROSPERO project, as results became available, it became clear that the PROSPERO concept was of interest to more specialist audiences, rather than generalist and mass media, as initially thought earlier in the project. For this reason, media relations were subsequently targeted at specialist media including aviation, technology, business and EU specialists.)
Significant progress was made across each of these objectives, as outlined in WP7 deliverables, most recently - D7.19 Dissemination and Exploitation Strategy (review) (M36) and D7.22 Dissemination Report (review) (M36).
The Dissemination and Learning Framework was developed during the first year of the project. This provided an overview on all dissemination efforts and priorities across the project under the following headings:
• Industry needs
• Key messages – benefits of the PROSPERO system
• Target audiences
• Dissemination channels and activities – internal learning and collaboration
• Dissemination channels – external
• Dissemination activities
We identified the most appropriate channels to reach the key target audiences for PROSPERO. We include a brief summary of some of the main achievements under dissemination channels. For a more detailed description, please refer to D7.22.
Website
• The PROSPERO website and online dissemination have been an important element of engagement with PROSPERO key target audiences.
• The PROSPERO website (www.prosperofp7.eu) went live in on 12th December 2012, within six weeks of the project start date.
• Google Analytics reported that the project website www.prosperofp7.eu had received 1,022 visits up to 21 April 2014, divided evenly between new and returning visitors.
• The project website had received over 3,000 visitors up to October 2015. Of these visitors, over one quarter were return visitors while almost 75 percent were new visitors.
Social Media
Twitter has proven to be a very successful dissemination channel for the project:
• We have written almost 700 Tweets, are Following 1,332 stakeholders in the aviation and related industries; and we have attracted 286 Followers.
• Twitter analytic reports demonstrate the high levels of engagement. In one particular week the PROSPERO profile was viewed 342 times.
• During the lifetime of the project we continually engaged with the PROSPERO network, utilising hashtags and becoming involved in conversations.
Videos & Digital Media
A dedicated, PROSPERO-branded YouTube channel was set up to present the project videos. The videos were also made available on the PROSPERO website’s video gallery section.
We have produced a series of videos to disseminate results and benefits of the project in an easy-to-understand way:
• An introduction to the PROSPERO Project by the project coordinator, Professor Nick McDonald from Trinity College, Dublin. (Filmed July 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLVSV2XNtBw
• An introductory overview to the project featuring representatives from some of the project partner organisations. (Filmed July 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lkm2uaxpko
• A mid-project overview by project coordinator, Professor Nick McDonald. (Filmed December 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiCiQuy56kE
• A mid-project assessment of progress featuring representatives from some of the project partner organisations. (Filmed December 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkvLTWJCz4k
Additionally, we produced an internal video to capture an interactive workshop held at the Dublin meeting in February 2014. Although not for public use, it has been shown to all of the partners.
A number of videos of interviews with Advisory Board members, were filmed at the Rome meeting in April 2014. The members were asked about the potential of the PROSPERO project and how it meets industry needs. Feedback from all participants was very positive.
The videos are now available on YouTube at the below links. They have had 90 views overall.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaVSciq5gbI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8P3HXFr3yU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izsauyGqWh0
An animation video was produced to explain the PROSPERO concept at the European Parliament event in February 2015. This video was very well received at the event, and was uploaded to YouTube. Up until the 4th of November 2105, it had achieved 190 views on YouTube.
The video is available to view on YouTube at the following link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebBaVEwPHIE
Videos have also been used under Dissemination Channels and Activities for Internal Learning and Collaboration, such as:
a. Webinars which have been recorded and uploaded to the website
b. Videos used during training sessions and packages
Posters / Brochures and Pop-Up / Newsletters
Poster
Six posters were produced throughout the PROSPERO project lifetime. These posters have been used for dissemination purposes, as well as to reinforce the PROSPERO brand at industry events, dissemination events, as well as at PROSPERO internal meetings.
The six posters are:
• Main Project Poster (August 2014)
• Aeordays System Poster (September 2015)
• Aerodays Network Poster (September 2015)
• Main Project Poster Updated (October 2015)
• Network Poster (October 2015)
• System Poster (October 2015)
Brochures
Two iterations of the PROSPERO brochure were created during the project. The brochures explain in simple terms, using a series of graphics, the key messages and models developing during the lifetime of PROSPERO. They outline the caliber of the research organisations that form the project’s consortium. The content for the brochure was created by Carr Communications in collaboration with Trinity College Dublin, the project’s coordinator. The brochure used similar graphics to those used in the project’s poster series to ensure the key research focus of PROSPERO was communicated. The design of the brochure is consistent with the poster series to enhance the awareness of the PROSPERO brand. The project brochure was an important dissemination tool to draw the attention and interest of aviation industry and academic audiences. The content in the brochure was quite technical and the key message is the added benefit PROSPERO will provide for those in the aviation sector. A PDF file of the brochure was uploaded to ProjectPlace, the internal communications site for the project. It was available for all project partners to download and print in advance of industry conferences and events.
Pop-Up stand
Carr Communication’s in-house designer created a pop-up stand for the project in January 2015. A pop-up stand is an important brand awareness and identification tool for events and conferences. It assists in the promotion of projects among key audiences, specifically industry and academia. The design of the pop-up stand complemented the colour palette and style of the PROSPERO poster series and brochure to ensure consistency in the project’s brand. The pop-up stand was used at a number of key events during the lifetime of PROSPERO including the European Parliament event in Brussels on 3 February 2015 and the Aerodays 2015 conferences in London on 20-23 October.
For further information on visual materials, please refer to D7.19 and D7.22.
Newsletters
Two issues of the PROSPERO e-newsletter have been released. The most recent edition was released in August 2015. The second PROSPERO e-newsletter featured an article by Siobhan Corrigan, KTH and Mark Sujan along with an article on "Performance Management in a Regional Airport", focusing on Abruzzo Airport, co-written by Diana Del Sordo, M.Chiara Leva and Fabio Mattei. More information is available at this link: http://www.prosperofp7.eu/news/32-prospero-e-newsletter-issue-2
The first PROSPERO e-newsletter was released in July 2014. It featured articles by partners on The PROSERO Concept, The PROSPERO System, Integrated data and model driven approaches to risk assessment in PROSPERO, Data science and PROSPERO, and Validation in PROPERO. Please see a link to newsletter one: http://www.prosperofp7.eu/news/23-prospero-e-newsletter-issue-1
PROSPERO partners have were actively engaged in drafting content for the newsletter and in circulating it amongst their networks. The two PROSPERO
e-newsletters have enjoyed a combined estimated online readership of over 300.
Conference and Journal Articles
We created an initial list of target journals (with impact factors), as set out in D7.11. These included:
• Aviation Safety Letter
• Aviation, Space and Environmental Medicine
• Journal of Air transport management
• Progress in Aerospace Sciences
• Aerospace Science and Technology
• International Journal of Aviation Management
• Journal of Airport Management (already approached – Summer ‘14)
• International Journal of Aviation Psychology
• Journal of Cognition, Technology & Work
• Safety Science
• Journal of Risk and Reliability
The Journal of Airport Management requested the PROSOPERO project to submit a paper, which was published in September 2014.
Conferences / Workshops
We started by compiling a list of aviation safety-related conferences, which we included on the PROSPERO website under ‘Upcoming Events’. As with the target journals, the PROSPERO partners prioritised the events to target, according to relevance. Please see D7.11 Academic Dissemination for details on speaking opportunities that have been secured at major conferences, as well as information on University Courses and Theses.
PROSPERO has submitted papers at the following conferences:
Sujan, M.A. Frau, N., & Mc Donald, N (2015). Towards a Realist Validation of an Aviation System Operational Concept – Preliminary findings from the PROSPSERO FP7 project. ESREL Conference, 7-10 September 2015, Zurich, Switzerland
Corrigan, S, & Ledin, A. (2015). Building Bridges for Working Together: Collaboration in Action: PROSPERO Work-Shop. ACI Airport Leadership & Change Summit, Istanbul 8-10 December
Baranzini, D., and Zanin, M. (2015). Risk Prediction & Risk Intelligence in Aviation – the next generation of aviation risk concepts from PROSPERO FP7 Project. ESREL 2015 - 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference.
Corrigan, S., Mc Donald, N., Baranzini, D., and Ulfvengren, P. (2015) Managing the Risk of Change: A New Approach. ESREL 2015 - 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference.
Corrigan, S., Mc Donald, N., and Baranzini, D (2014). Managing the Risk of Change. 31st EAAP Conference, Malta.
Stogsdill, M., Ulfvengren, P., Baranzini, D., Corrigan S., and McDonald, N. (2014). Sharing is Caring: A Discussion for Combining Risk Information. In Human Factors In Organizational Design And Management – XI. Nordic Ergonomics Society Annual Conference – O. Broberg, N. Fallentin, P. Hasle, P.I. Jensen, A. Kabel, M.E. Larsen, T. Weller (Editors).
PROSPERO also presented at AERODAYS in October in 2105, and at ACI Technical Ops in Edinburgh in September 2015.
Media Implementation Plan
At the beginning of PROSPERO’s lifetime, we had initially aimed our media strategy at general audiences and at mass media. Based on this, we developed a media relations implementation plan for the PROSPERO project (M18-M36), based on key audiences to target, and dissemination activity across the media channels available, such as:
• National print media
• National broadcast media (TV and radio)
• Regional print media
• Regional broadcast media (TV and radio)
• Specialist publications – aviation
• Scientific publications / journals
• EU dissemination resources
• Online media / blogs
The first step in the media relations implementation plan was to create a Europe-wide circulation list of key media. In order to do this, we set up a series of meetings with the communications managers of partner organisations in different countries. This allowed us to utilise existing media relationships and key contacts across the project.
Project partners have also cooperated with us to translate press releases in to their own languages, and circulate them through their companies’ communications offices, and among their specialist media contacts.
As mentioned above media relations were subsequently targeted at specialist media to reflect the specialist audiences interested in the PROSPERO concept. An updated media contact list is included as an Appendix to D7.22.
Press releases were issued for:
-the European Parliament event in February 2015
-to mark the conclusion of the project and to communicate its main achievements and findings.
These press releases were sent to the specialist audiences referred to above.
Issuing of the final project press release was postponed due to the Russian airplane crash over Egypt in November 2015. Once this event had dropped from the news cycle, the final press release was issued in a variety of PROSPERO partner countries, thanks to the cooperation of project partners. The press release enjoyed good pick-up in Italy, and was published in the newsletter of the European Commission Representation in Ireland.
For further information on media activities, please refer to D7.19.
PROSPERO Dissemination Events
a) European Parliament Event February 2015
PROSPERO organized a dissemination event in the European Parliament in February 2015. The event was hosted by MEP Seán Kelly (EPP) and aimed to communicate key PROSPERO results to date to influential stakeholders, policy makers and industry leaders. MEP Kelly is a full member of the European Parliament Industry and Research Committee (ITRE) and therefore provided an invaluable audience for PROSPERO. Invitees included MEPs on relevant European Parliament committees such as Industry and Research (ITRE) and Transport (TRAN), key European Commission officials including the Project Officer and representatives of DG Research and Transport, and officials from key European organisations such as Eurocontrol and SESAR JU.
The event was moderated by MEP Marian-Jean Marinescu. MEP Marinescu is a full member of the European Parliament Committee on Transport and Tourism, and is a substitute member of the ITRE committee. He has delivered speeches in European Parliament Plenary sessions on civil aviation and has acted as rapporteur on European Parliament reports on the implementation of the SESAR JU budget.
http://www.eppgroup.eu/mep/Marian-Jean-MARINESCU
The event attracted participants from different European airports, from research institutes, national aviation authorities, European Parliament groups and IATA, EU Single Sky and ACI Europe. The final attendance ensured that PROSPERO results to date, and the benefits of the project were brought to an influential and engaged audience.
Please see link of summary video recorded at the PROSPERO EP event:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjJcGJ-AbTA
Figure 1: Photograph from PROSPERO EP event
b) PROSPERO EASA workshop, June 2015
On the 30th of June 2015, PROSPERO partners met with the EU’s aviation regulator, EASA in Cologne, to discuss the tangible benefits of the PROSPERO system for the EU’s aviation industry.
Partners from PROSPERO and officials from EASA had a very constructive meeting to discuss the outcomes and exploitable benefits of the PROSPERO project in terms of improving aviation safety and regulation within the EU. EASA was complimentary about the significant work undertaken by PROSPERO in order to develop an all-inclusive predictive and safety forecasting system for industry and end users.
Prospero project coordinator, Trinity College Dublin, presented a high level overview of the PROSPERO system which addressed:
• Reducing the risk of emergent factors in change
• Evolution of safety management from reactive to predictive
• Key case studies of the PROSPERO system
Officials from EASA provided updates to PROSPERO partners in specific areas such as:
• Mandatory and voluntary reporting
• SMS
• Risk assessment
• Performance of the whole Air Transport System
PROSPERO and EASA partners agreed that there is a shift towards considering regulation as part of the global SMS. Officials from EASA expressed their support for the future commercialisation of the PROSPERO system as the Reporting Directive encourages more voluntary reporting, and the PROSPERO system can deliver a streamlined system for reporting on risk factors and patterns which would benefit airlines and traffic controllers.
Figure 2: Participants at the PROSPERO EASA workshop, Cologne, June 2015
c) Final PROSPERO Dissemination Event, October 2105
PROSPERO hosted their final dissemination event with a blended approach of on-site as well as on-line. The Dublin based partners gathered in a Dublin conference centre, while other participants joined the event through a live weblink. This event addressed the benefits and results of the project and also outlined the future for the project results.
Participants were from EASA, European Commission, SESAR, civil defense organisations, and a number of airlines, airports and private sector companies
PROSPERO promises to deliver a new concept of safety management based on the concept of risk knowledge. Risk knowledge comes from large and diverse data sources accumulated along a process, analysed and fed back to the process owners. Its emphasis on the antecedents or precursors of risk identifies what needs to change to gain the maximum leverage in preventing and mitigating risk. It supports the management of change, through in-depth analysis, collaborative participation and monitoring progress; it creates accountability for the implementation of recommendations for change. Through sharing of selected data it enables the building of comprehensive system risk models in which shared risks can be effectively controlled and providing oversight over suppliers and sub-contractors. It is a bottom-up approach that empowers all participants from the operational sharp-end to strategic management, to monitor, manage and improve the risk profile for which they are responsible.
Immediate goals for PROSPERO in the period after the project, include the consolidation and further development of an integrated software system to serve flight operations, airport ground operations, aircraft maintenance. An ATM performance and risk concept should fully integrate with this, based on complexity metrics developed in the project. This will be collaboratively implemented in a network of operational users serviced by a multi-functional knowledge business. A wider interest group developing and disseminating these ideas in a learning community will be supported by the new Masters programme on Managing Risk and System Change in TCD.
PROSPERO fulfills the current SMS requirements for all aviation organisations to be proactive, systemic and performance focused. This approach will enable the development of an integrated Air Transport System (ATS) safety performance management concept that can fulfil the safety goals of Single European Sky for reference period 3 (commencing in 2020).
List of Websites:
Professor Nick Mc Donald, Project Co-ordinator, Centre for Innovative Human Systems (CIHS), School of Psychology, Trinity College Dublin.
Email: nick.mcdonald@tcd.ie Phone: 0035318961471
http://prosperofp7.eu/
PROSPERO Executive Summary
PROSPERO focused on two parallel work streams: (i) the development and demonstration of the core PROSPERO system as a data and information transformation process; 9ii) and as a set of case studies concerned with the organisational aspects of the implementation of the system.
PROSPERO System - The PROSPERO architecture was defined in terms of four core elements as follows:
1. Data Providers (DP): The end users providing access to risk data
2. Risk Information Analysis Providers (RIAP): The network of services to organise and process risk data
3. Risk Intelligence Distribution Providers (RIDP): The network of services that allows the risk data exchange and communication
4. Risk Intelligence Use (RIU): The end users receiving the new knowledge on risk and how to apply such knowledge for risk management, advanced SMS uses, system design and change management uses.
The PROSPERO system was then modelled in three ways:
• PROSPERO Information Flow system – mapping the step-by-step data transfer / communication flow across the PROSPERO system users
• PROSPERO Aviation Integration Process – mapping the tasks and actions of coordinated multi-partners developing system risk models
• PROSPERO Role maps – mapping all expected roles allocated to various risk functions
Following the definition of the architecture, the activity was to adapt the partners’ IT capacities and to develop the new features required to reach the system demonstrator definition in accordance with the retained case studies covering organisational and systemic level. It addressed the risk information production (Risk pattern production, Risk monitoring or pattern patching, Risk information bulletin) and the management of change (Risk pattern’s evolution due to change). Then, the data collected from the case studies and provided by the end-user partners were integrated within the platform demonstrator as the PROSPERO IT capacities to enable the PROSPERO system demonstrator. The finalisation work was to validate the PROSPERO demonstrator by executing the demonstration with respect to the case studies and analysing the results. The successful final demonstration in June 2015 to the EC where the PROSPERO platform demonstrator was presented through the demonstration of 3 case studies. Although the collaboration at systemic level (i.e. between organizations) is a real challenge in sharing data (not from technical perspective), it was demonstrated that even with few operational datasets from different stakeholders, the data analysis brings value in risk assessment and monitoring. The predictive capacities are an innovative safety approach which focuses on the precursor’s analysis to better monitor operations and changes.
At organisational level, Five Case Studies were undertaken in the project, which ranged from new risk analysis based on cross-organisational big data analysis and predictive statistics to shared stakeholders change initiatives with very-long term horizons. The Case studies are as follows:
Case study 1 investigated the feasibility of identifying, integrating multiple data sets and domains (in Aeroporti Di Roma airport and Alitalia airline)
Case study 2 analysed the change and risks related to a complex procedural change in de-icing operations at the apron.
Case Study 3 analysed the provision of a performance management system to support a full cycle of SMS on core operations for a small regional airport, linked to the airport core strategic objectives and the evaluation of the organizational changes initiated through this process.
Case Study 4 studied and supported the full implementation of ACDM at Arlanda airport.
Case Study 5 developed a risk metric for representing the complexity of air traffic in a sector to support air traffic controller decision-making and operational risk management..
At systemic level: taken as a whole these case studies illustrate the PROSPERO system at the level of the Air Transport System (ATS). The case study at regulatory level consisted in a workshop held at the end of June 2015 at EASA premises in Cologne, with the following objectives:
• To present an overview of the PROSPERO concept and its realisation in a set of case studies;
• To discuss ways in which the PROSPERO approach addresses current regulatory activities in Europe concerning, for example, performance, safety, risk, reporting and organisational requirements
Project Context and Objectives:
New international regulation for aviation organizations and for states demands an approach to safety that is preventive and proactive rather than reactive, is performance driven, and able to deliver verifiable improvement. However, this cannot be realized without the capability to anticipate and prevent complex system accidents and this is lacking in the following ways. The most used risk assessment methodologies are based on expert judgment unsupported by extensive data. Anticipation of specific risks is not fine-tuned enough for preparation for potential emergencies to be integrated into normal everyday operational planning. There is no integrated risk metric for the Air Transport System that allows risks of different types and sources to be assessed with reference to each other. The lack of a system-wide risk metric makes it impossible for system improvements to be evaluated against a projected risk reduction target. There is no standard for safety performance that a regulator can use to audit, evaluate or require an operator to improve its safety system.
As stated in the PROSPERO description of work (DoW) the project planned to develop, implement and evaluate a prototype management system for identifying and actively managing systemic risks in the Air Transport System, including complex and novel interactions. This included the following components:
• A common operational concept of performance indicators representing inputs, ongoing activity as well as outputs of the ATS. These performance indicators will link safety to other operational goals.
• A methodology for operational system analysis that can support hazard and risk assessment, investigation, modeling and simulation of future systems, managing organizational change and system redesign. A new taxonomy will build on and extend the range of ADREP to encompass a full range of aviation socio-technical system concepts.
• A generic system-risk-management process involving all ATS stakeholders. This is based on the premise that “the risk is built in before the operation starts and needs to be managed through the whole operational lifecycle”. This includes
o The production of risk information from operational monitoring and analysis
o The supply of information on system status, including the aircraft and other technologies, route, personnel, weather, traffic.
o Risk management across the operational cycle – design, planning and supply, operational management (dispatch, operations)
o Feedback and learning
• A software system to support the socio-technical analysis and redesign of ATS, data integration, data monitoring and analysis, learning, capturing tacit knowledge, hosting on appropriate technologies and interfaces and links with complimentary applications.
• A dissemination and exploitation process will manage active real-time engagement with the wider aviation community and key institutional stakeholders, including the following: SESAR, SES PRB, EASA, IATA, ACI, FAA, ICAO, so as to ensure that PROSPERO delivers what the industry requires and that there is a clear path to the adoption and implementation of its methodologies, tools and organisational framework.
Achievements
PROSPERO delivered on these objectives in two parallel work streams: the development and demonstration of the core PROSPERO system as a data and information transformation process; and as a set of case studies concerned with the organisational aspects of the implementation of the system.
PROSPERO System
The PROSPERO architecture was defined in terms of four core elements as follows:
1. Data Providers (DP): The end users providing access to risk data
2. Risk Information Analysis Providers (RIAP): The network of services to organise and process risk data
3. Risk Intelligence Distribution Providers (RIDP): The network of services that allows the risk data exchange and communication
4. Risk Intelligence Use (RIU): The end users receiving the new knowledge on risk and how to apply such knowledge for risk management, advanced SMS uses, system design and change management uses.
The PROSPERO system was then modelled in three ways:
• PROSPERO Information Flow system – mapping the step-by-step data transfer / communication flow across the PROSPERO system users
• PROSPERO Aviation Integration Process – mapping the tasks and actions of coordinated multi-partners developing system risk models
• PROSPERO Role maps – mapping all expected roles allocated to various risk functions
Following the definition of the architecture, the activity was to adapt the partners’ IT capacities and to develop the new features required to reach the system demonstrator definition in accordance with the retained case studies covering organizational and systemic level. It addressed the risk information production (Risk pattern production, Risk monitoring or pattern patching, Risk information bulletin) and the management of change (Risk pattern’s evolution due to change). Then, the data collected from the case studies and provided by the end-user partners were integrated within the platform demonstrator as the PROSPERO IT capacities to enable the PROSPERO system demonstrator. The finalisation work was to validate the PROSPERO demonstrator by executing the demonstration with respect to the case studies and analysing the results. The successful final demonstration (D4.16) in June 2015 to the EC where the PROSPERO platform demonstrator was presented through the demonstration of 3 case studies. Although the collaboration at systemic level (i.e. between organizations) is a real challenge in sharing data (not from technical perspective), it was demonstrated that even with few operational datasets from different stakeholders, the data analysis brings value in risk assessment and monitoring. The predictive capacities are an innovative safety approach which focuses on the precursor’s analysis to better monitor operations and changes.
Case Studies
The overall objectives of WP5 were to organise and perform a set of Case Studies to support the actual development and implementation of the PROSPERO methodology at different levels of application. Three sets of Case Studies were designed and carried out in accordance with the three level of complexity of the PROSPERO approach. The case-studies commenced at organisational level, in which each industrial stakeholder within the Consortium will develop and implement a case study properly shaped on its everyday activities. The second set of case studies, referred as systemic level case studies, proposes one common scenario focusing on integration of an operational situation engaging different types of stakeholders. Finally, the overall integrated PROSPERO approach enabled the implementation of a single case study at regulatory level, where all lessons learned in the previous case studies will be integrated in a regulatory perspective.
At organisational level, Five Case Studies were undertaken in the project, which ranged from new risk analysis based on cross-organizational big data analysis and predictive statistics to shared stakeholders change initiatives with very-long term horizons. The Case studies are as follows:
Case study 1 investigated the feasibility of identifying, integrating multiple data sets and domains (in Aeroporti Di Roma airport and Alitalia airline) successfully and identifying risk patterns as defined in Deliverable 3.6 and 3.8 of PROSPERO. A Key objective was to prove capacity of integrating and predicting bird-strike events as key hazard selected in the Project.
Case study 2 analysed the change and risks related to a complex procedural change in de-icing operations at the apron. A Change Management methodology was set and applied to test what kind of issues could arise from this change and how the company could manage and control risk in change.
Case Study 3 analysed the provision of a performance management system to support a full cycle of SMS on core operations for a small regional airport, linked to the airport core strategic objectives and the evaluation of the organizational changes initiated through this process. A combination of Prospective and Retrospective risk analysis support company operations and performance monitoring/evaluation.
Case Study 4 studied and supported the full implementation of ACDM at Arlanda airport. This involved the collaboration of a wide range of operational partners together with the airport authority.
Case Study 5 developed a risk metric for representing the complexity of air traffic in a sector to support air traffic controller decision-making and operational risk management. An ATM dashboard has been developed integrating aspects of complexity, safety and operations in air traffic control.
At systemic level: taken as a whole these case studies illustrate the PROSPERO system at the level of the Air Transport System (ATS). They illustrate both the operational loop of risk data and the change management loop, both of these involving different actors in the ATS. In essence, the “bird-strike” case study (Case Study 1) and the ATM complexity (Case Study 5) represent the Prospero Operational loop (combined as an ATS solution). The ADR and ACDM cases (Case Study 2 and 4) represent change; not just airport change, but also the other ATS partners. SAGA case about SMS implementation (Case study 3) represented both the Operational to the Change management loop with a whole system risk assessment airport, airline, ATM, emergency services. A complete system level case.
The case study at regulatory level consisted in a workshop held at the end of June 2015 at EASA premises in Cologne, with the following objectives:
• To present an overview of the PROSPERO concept and its realisation in a set of case studies;
• To discuss ways in which the PROSPERO approach addresses current regulatory activities in Europe concerning, for example, performance, safety, risk, reporting and organisational requirements;
• To discuss potential benefits for regulation and for national and European authorities that could arise from implementing the PROSPERO approach in aviation organisations;
• To address future developments in areas like software systems, safety services and research priorities.
The workshop combined presentations of the PROSPERO concept, the system and the case studies alongside presentations from EASA on: mandatory and voluntary reporting, SMS, risk assessment; performance of the whole Air Transport system. The EASA focus is to try to make this work as a system, not just as a set of rules and standards. Thus it is required under the reporting directive to report the analysis of the event and the implementation of actions, and to encourage more comprehensive voluntary reporting. They want to make the ECCAIRS database that holds all this data more accessible and usable by the aviation community. This is part of a shift in thinking towards considering regulation as part of a global SMS. EASA are very interested in large data, sharing of data between organisations and responded with interest to the ideas put forward about this being a knowledge business, and about gathering risk data from all the services along a process, integrating and then reapportioning the resulting risk information to each service provider according to its process, creating networks of sharing through nodes (airports, ATM) so that competing airlines are not forced to directly share, but only indirectly through common interest and common value. They were impressed with the range of work and the depth of involvement with the operational organisations. There was a good discussion on the issue of confidentiality and the possibility of configuring this in a slightly different way, including how protections could be built in. The Single European Sky is in Reference period 2 (2015-1019) but are already planning for RP3 (2020-). This is where they hope to be able to achieve an effective safety performance metric. PROSPERO could be seen as part of the solution to this. There are important opportunities both for a commercial PROSPERO solution and for a follow-on project to contribute tangibly to this strategic goal.
Validation
PROSPERO functionality has been validated in three case studies: (a) managing the risk of change in European airports, (b) Air transport system risk assessment based on shared data between airports and airlines, and (c) supporting compliance with and satisfaction of European regulatory requirements. The following functions have been successfully validated: (1) the Structured Enquiry to support the change management loop, (2) data sharing among aviation stakeholders, (3) data integration, (4) data mining, (5) risk pattern matching, and (6) risk intelligence distribution.
The following challenges have been identified that should be investigated in further work:
(a) Access to data and data quality remain a crucial issue. Ways for overcoming barriers to data sharing should be investigated, and the benefits of data sharing need to be clearly articulated and demonstrated to stakeholders.
(b) The bird strike example was a convenient case study as it facilitated access to data, but it limited the utility of the PROSPERO functions. Further case studies should explore the extent to which the data integration, data mining, risk pattern matching, and risk intelligence distribution functions enhance the existing risk model for other types of events.
(c) The bird strike example operated with partially simulated data. Further work should investigate the feasibility of data integration, data mining, risk pattern matching and risk intelligence distribution in a live environment with large amounts of disparate data.
(d) At the regulatory level, further work should explore practical ways in which PROSPERO can support not only compliance with regulatory requirements, but also facilitate regulatory oversight functions themselves.
Future
PROSPERO promises to deliver a new concept of safety management based on the concept of risk knowledge. Risk knowledge comes from large and diverse data sources accumulated along a process, analysed and fed back to the process owners. Its emphasis on the antecedents or precursors of risk identifies what needs to change to gain the maximum leverage in preventing and mitigating risk. It supports the management of change, through in-depth analysis, collaborative participation and monitoring progress; it creates accountability for the implementation of recommendations for change. Through sharing of selected data it enables the building of comprehensive system risk models in which shared risks can be effectively controlled and providing oversight over suppliers and sub-contractors. It is a bottom-up approach that empowers all participants from the operational sharp-end to strategic management, to monitor, manage and improve the risk profile for which they are responsible.
Immediate goals for PROSPERO in the period after the project, include the consolidation and further development of an integrated software system to serve flight operations, airport ground operations, aircraft maintenance. An ATM performance and risk concept should fully integrate with this, based on complexity metrics developed in the project. This will be collaboratively implemented in a network of operational users serviced by a multi-functional knowledge business. A wider interest group developing and disseminating these ideas in a learning community will be supported by the new Masters programme on Managing Risk and System Change in TCD.
PROSPERO fulfills the current SMS requirements for all aviation organisations to be proactive, systemic and performance focused. This approach will enable the development of an integrated Air Transport System (ATS) safety performance management concept that can fulfil the safety goals of Single European Sky for reference period 3 (commencing in 2020).
New international regulation for aviation organizations and for states demands an approach to safety that is preventive and proactive rather than reactive, is performance driven, and able to deliver verifiable improvement. However, this cannot be realized without the capability to anticipate and prevent complex system accidents and this is lacking in the following ways. The most used risk assessment methodologies are based on expert judgment unsupported by extensive data. Anticipation of specific risks is not fine-tuned enough for preparation for potential emergencies to be integrated into normal everyday operational planning. There is no integrated risk metric for the Air Transport System that allows risks of different types and sources to be assessed with reference to each other. The lack of a system-wide risk metric makes it impossible for system improvements to be evaluated against a projected risk reduction target. There is no standard for safety performance that a regulator can use to audit, evaluate or require an operator to improve its safety system.
As stated in the PROSPERO description of work (DoW) the project planned to develop, implement and evaluate a prototype management system for identifying and actively managing systemic risks in the Air Transport System, including complex and novel interactions. This included the following components:
• A common operational concept of performance indicators representing inputs, ongoing activity as well as outputs of the ATS. These performance indicators will link safety to other operational goals.
• A methodology for operational system analysis that can support hazard and risk assessment, investigation, modeling and simulation of future systems, managing organizational change and system redesign. A new taxonomy will build on and extend the range of ADREP to encompass a full range of aviation socio-technical system concepts.
• A generic system-risk-management process involving all ATS stakeholders. This is based on the premise that “the risk is built in before the operation starts and needs to be managed through the whole operational lifecycle”. This includes
o The production of risk information from operational monitoring and analysis
o The supply of information on system status, including the aircraft and other technologies, route, personnel, weather, traffic.
o Risk management across the operational cycle – design, planning and supply, operational management (dispatch, operations)
o Feedback and learning
• A software system to support the socio-technical analysis and redesign of ATS, data integration, data monitoring and analysis, learning, capturing tacit knowledge, hosting on appropriate technologies and interfaces and links with complimentary applications.
• A dissemination and exploitation process will manage active real-time engagement with the wider aviation community and key institutional stakeholders, including the following: SESAR, SES PRB, EASA, IATA, ACI, FAA, ICAO, so as to ensure that PROSPERO delivers what the industry requires and that there is a clear path to the adoption and implementation of its methodologies, tools and organisational framework.
Achievements
PROSPERO delivered on these objectives in two parallel work streams: the development and demonstration of the core PROSPERO system as a data and information transformation process; and as a set of case studies concerned with the organisational aspects of the implementation of the system.
PROSPERO System
The PROSPERO architecture was defined in terms of four core elements as follows:
1. Data Providers (DP): The end users providing access to risk data
2. Risk Information Analysis Providers (RIAP): The network of services to organise and process risk data
3. Risk Intelligence Distribution Providers (RIDP): The network of services that allows the risk data exchange and communication
4. Risk Intelligence Use (RIU): The end users receiving the new knowledge on risk and how to apply such knowledge for risk management, advanced SMS uses, system design and change management uses.
The PROSPERO system was then modelled in three ways:
• PROSPERO Information Flow system – mapping the step-by-step data transfer / communication flow across the PROSPERO system users
• PROSPERO Aviation Integration Process – mapping the tasks and actions of coordinated multi-partners developing system risk models
• PROSPERO Role maps – mapping all expected roles allocated to various risk functions
Following the definition of the architecture, the activity was to adapt the partners’ IT capacities and to develop the new features required to reach the system demonstrator definition in accordance with the retained case studies covering organizational and systemic level. It addressed the risk information production (Risk pattern production, Risk monitoring or pattern patching, Risk information bulletin) and the management of change (Risk pattern’s evolution due to change). Then, the data collected from the case studies and provided by the end-user partners were integrated within the platform demonstrator as the PROSPERO IT capacities to enable the PROSPERO system demonstrator. The finalisation work was to validate the PROSPERO demonstrator by executing the demonstration with respect to the case studies and analysing the results. The successful final demonstration (D4.16) in June 2015 to the EC where the PROSPERO platform demonstrator was presented through the demonstration of 3 case studies. Although the collaboration at systemic level (i.e. between organizations) is a real challenge in sharing data (not from technical perspective), it was demonstrated that even with few operational datasets from different stakeholders, the data analysis brings value in risk assessment and monitoring. The predictive capacities are an innovative safety approach which focuses on the precursor’s analysis to better monitor operations and changes.
Case Studies
The overall objectives of WP5 were to organise and perform a set of Case Studies to support the actual development and implementation of the PROSPERO methodology at different levels of application. Three sets of Case Studies were designed and carried out in accordance with the three level of complexity of the PROSPERO approach. The case-studies commenced at organisational level, in which each industrial stakeholder within the Consortium will develop and implement a case study properly shaped on its everyday activities. The second set of case studies, referred as systemic level case studies, proposes one common scenario focusing on integration of an operational situation engaging different types of stakeholders. Finally, the overall integrated PROSPERO approach enabled the implementation of a single case study at regulatory level, where all lessons learned in the previous case studies will be integrated in a regulatory perspective.
At organisational level, Five Case Studies were undertaken in the project, which ranged from new risk analysis based on cross-organizational big data analysis and predictive statistics to shared stakeholders change initiatives with very-long term horizons. The Case studies are as follows:
Case study 1 investigated the feasibility of identifying, integrating multiple data sets and domains (in Aeroporti Di Roma airport and Alitalia airline) successfully and identifying risk patterns as defined in Deliverable 3.6 and 3.8 of PROSPERO. A Key objective was to prove capacity of integrating and predicting bird-strike events as key hazard selected in the Project.
Case study 2 analysed the change and risks related to a complex procedural change in de-icing operations at the apron. A Change Management methodology was set and applied to test what kind of issues could arise from this change and how the company could manage and control risk in change.
Case Study 3 analysed the provision of a performance management system to support a full cycle of SMS on core operations for a small regional airport, linked to the airport core strategic objectives and the evaluation of the organizational changes initiated through this process. A combination of Prospective and Retrospective risk analysis support company operations and performance monitoring/evaluation.
Case Study 4 studied and supported the full implementation of ACDM at Arlanda airport. This involved the collaboration of a wide range of operational partners together with the airport authority.
Case Study 5 developed a risk metric for representing the complexity of air traffic in a sector to support air traffic controller decision-making and operational risk management. An ATM dashboard has been developed integrating aspects of complexity, safety and operations in air traffic control.
At systemic level: taken as a whole these case studies illustrate the PROSPERO system at the level of the Air Transport System (ATS). They illustrate both the operational loop of risk data and the change management loop, both of these involving different actors in the ATS. In essence, the “bird-strike” case study (Case Study 1) and the ATM complexity (Case Study 5) represent the Prospero Operational loop (combined as an ATS solution). The ADR and ACDM cases (Case Study 2 and 4) represent change; not just airport change, but also the other ATS partners. SAGA case about SMS implementation (Case study 3) represented both the Operational to the Change management loop with a whole system risk assessment airport, airline, ATM, emergency services. A complete system level case.
The case study at regulatory level consisted in a workshop held at the end of June 2015 at EASA premises in Cologne, with the following objectives:
• To present an overview of the PROSPERO concept and its realisation in a set of case studies;
• To discuss ways in which the PROSPERO approach addresses current regulatory activities in Europe concerning, for example, performance, safety, risk, reporting and organisational requirements;
• To discuss potential benefits for regulation and for national and European authorities that could arise from implementing the PROSPERO approach in aviation organisations;
• To address future developments in areas like software systems, safety services and research priorities.
The workshop combined presentations of the PROSPERO concept, the system and the case studies alongside presentations from EASA on: mandatory and voluntary reporting, SMS, risk assessment; performance of the whole Air Transport system. The EASA focus is to try to make this work as a system, not just as a set of rules and standards. Thus it is required under the reporting directive to report the analysis of the event and the implementation of actions, and to encourage more comprehensive voluntary reporting. They want to make the ECCAIRS database that holds all this data more accessible and usable by the aviation community. This is part of a shift in thinking towards considering regulation as part of a global SMS. EASA are very interested in large data, sharing of data between organisations and responded with interest to the ideas put forward about this being a knowledge business, and about gathering risk data from all the services along a process, integrating and then reapportioning the resulting risk information to each service provider according to its process, creating networks of sharing through nodes (airports, ATM) so that competing airlines are not forced to directly share, but only indirectly through common interest and common value. They were impressed with the range of work and the depth of involvement with the operational organisations. There was a good discussion on the issue of confidentiality and the possibility of configuring this in a slightly different way, including how protections could be built in. The Single European Sky is in Reference period 2 (2015-1019) but are already planning for RP3 (2020-). This is where they hope to be able to achieve an effective safety performance metric. PROSPERO could be seen as part of the solution to this. There are important opportunities both for a commercial PROSPERO solution and for a follow-on project to contribute tangibly to this strategic goal.
Validation
PROSPERO functionality has been validated in three case studies: (a) managing the risk of change in European airports, (b) Air transport system risk assessment based on shared data between airports and airlines, and (c) supporting compliance with and satisfaction of European regulatory requirements. The following functions have been successfully validated: (1) the Structured Enquiry to support the change management loop, (2) data sharing among aviation stakeholders, (3) data integration, (4) data mining, (5) risk pattern matching, and (6) risk intelligence distribution.
The following challenges have been identified that should be investigated in further work:
(a) Access to data and data quality remain a crucial issue. Ways for overcoming barriers to data sharing should be investigated, and the benefits of data sharing need to be clearly articulated and demonstrated to stakeholders.
(b) The bird strike example was a convenient case study as it facilitated access to data, but it limited the utility of the PROSPERO functions. Further case studies should explore the extent to which the data integration, data mining, risk pattern matching, and risk intelligence distribution functions enhance the existing risk model for other types of events.
(c) The bird strike example operated with partially simulated data. Further work should investigate the feasibility of data integration, data mining, risk pattern matching and risk intelligence distribution in a live environment with large amounts of disparate data.
(d) At the regulatory level, further work should explore practical ways in which PROSPERO can support not only compliance with regulatory requirements, but also facilitate regulatory oversight functions themselves.
Future
PROSPERO promises to deliver a new concept of safety management based on the concept of risk knowledge. Risk knowledge comes from large and diverse data sources accumulated along a process, analysed and fed back to the process owners. Its emphasis on the antecedents or precursors of risk identifies what needs to change to gain the maximum leverage in preventing and mitigating risk. It supports the management of change, through in-depth analysis, collaborative participation and monitoring progress; it creates accountability for the implementation of recommendations for change. Through sharing of selected data it enables the building of comprehensive system risk models in which shared risks can be effectively controlled and providing oversight over suppliers and sub-contractors. It is a bottom-up approach that empowers all participants from the operational sharp-end to strategic management, to monitor, manage and improve the risk profile for which they are responsible.
Immediate goals for PROSPERO in the period after the project, include the consolidation and further development of an integrated software system to serve flight operations, airport ground operations, aircraft maintenance. An ATM performance and risk concept should fully integrate with this, based on complexity metrics developed in the project. This will be collaboratively implemented in a network of operational users serviced by a multi-functional knowledge business. A wider interest group developing and disseminating these ideas in a learning community will be supported by the new Masters programme on Managing Risk and System Change in TCD.
PROSPERO fulfills the current SMS requirements for all aviation organisations to be proactive, systemic and performance focused. This approach will enable the development of an integrated Air Transport System (ATS) safety performance management concept that can fulfil the safety goals of Single European Sky for reference period 3 (commencing in 2020).
Project Results:
Overview of PROSPERO Work-Packages
• WP1 Project Management
• WP2 Definition of Requirements
• WP3 Design & Preparation
• WP4 Develop & Integrate
• WP5 Case Studies
• WP6 Validation
• WP7 Impact & Dissemination
WP1 Project Management
TCD (as the co-ordinating partner) played an active role in ensuring that all technical and administrative aspects of the project were kept on track. The PROSPERO consortium functioned as an effective team throughout the duration of the project. In particular there was a very proactive and enthusiastic involvement of all the industrial partners, and this coupled with the synchronisation of the research and IT development partners has resulted in a high level of co-ordination, open and transparent communication. Nevertheless PROSPERO was quite a challenging project: because the key focus wason the development of capabilities at a system level (both locally and globally), it required each partner to understand not only their own RDT objectives, but, even more so, to understand the role of other partners in collaborating to create a capability that does not yet exist.
Overall progress was often much slower than planned and it has been useful to see the project in terms of a process of staged learning and development, which can be tracked through the initial kick-off meeting and succeeding workshops. For example, an initial realisation of what could be achieved through collaboration with existing technologies and methods to create a system capability, evolved into a realisation of what could be done through the integration of large amounts of data, and is now confronting the possibilities that could be achieved by developing research-based services to analyse data to create new knowledge, and then to distribute and create new uses for this data across the whole air transport system.
Therefore there was a delay in delivering key deliverables especially in the later stages of the project. Nevertheless all deliverables planned have now been submitted
In order to facilitate the development of a robust common understanding of the PROSPERO system a process for enhanced collaboration and learning was built into the work-programme, which is planned to actively engage all partners. It is also important to explicitly build on the achievements of other projects, even though not all partners had experience of previous projects (e.g. MASCA). This was considered to be very important in an action-oriented research that is characteristic of PROSPERO, because it takes a long time to develop the kind of case studies that can effectively test a system like PROSPERO.. This is why SAGA (Pescara airport) and Swedavia were brought into the project as full partners. SAGA joined the Consortium in October 2013 and Swedavia in March 2014 (both of which were partners in the MASCA project. Through these means, a solid platform of research and development was established in order to ensure that all project objectives were met during the project.
WP2 Definition of Requirements (M0-M6)
The overall objective of WP2 was to define the industry requirements for the PROSPERO system. The short duration of WP2 (six working months) posed a challenge considering the enormous complexity of the research required for this concept as well as the many stakeholders across the ATS. The research partners managed to meet and collect data from all stakeholders including end-users as well as providers of technologies. Academic researchers also provided theoretical frameworks. The Advisory Board extended this reach to include regulators, authorities and expertise in various fields. Additional participants for data collection were selected based upon established contacts or regional closeness. In summary the key outputs from WP2 included a revised operational concept (See figure 5) and a comprehensive overview of industry requirements and validation for the future development of the PROSPERO system. This WP also identified gaps in understanding and expectations between partners (end-users, developers, research) about how an integrated PROSPERO system could work. D2.2 Requirements for Proactive Safety Performance for Operations at organizational and systemic level was submitted in May 2013.
WP3 Design & Preparation (M10-M26)
The overall objectives of WP3 were to define the key functional requirements and specifications of the future PROSPERO system. A first research action targeted the definition or a common ATS set of performance indicators called PROSPERO KPIs. This list consisted of more than 700 KPIs overall. The new PROSPERO functionality focused on a concerted and harmonized common risk methodology, this resulted in the integration of data-driven and risk models-driven approaches to risk assessment. The operational as well as the change loop being addressed in PROSPERO were mapped out and validated according to the competency requirements needed to sustain and foster change oriented and prospective safety oriented models in the total ATS. The identification and description of a set of capabilities that should be deployed to fulfil the requirements and the definition of the relationships between these capabilities to manage the information flow was also established. It emerged during this WP that the main constraints and challenges were not related to technology but legal/organizational (i.e. confidentiality of data, intellectual property of software between partners). All the above achievements are fully described in D3.6 Functional Specification for the design and preparation of PROSPERO delivered in November 2013 and D3.8 Revised Functional Specification which was submitted in April 2014.
WP4 Develop & Integrate (M10-M32)
The overall objectives of WP 4 were to turn the design specifications from WP3 into an integrated information management system that is capable of demonstrating the PROSPERO concepts according to the case studies of WP 5. The integration platform demonstrator was defined to enable centralization and distribution of data with interconnected capacities offered by the partners IT tool with regards to the retained UCs.
To reach this goal, the WP 4 applied the following steps:
- Task 4.1: based on the preliminary WP 4 preparation work to support the “definition of requirements”, the “functional analysis” and the “case studies“ definition, the work was to propose suitable architectures supporting the PROSPERO concept demonstration and to select the most appropriate one to the project context. This architecture is a global demonstrator solution integrating:
▪ the infrastructure (‘backbone i.e. integration platform’),
▪ the software and applications picked-up among the partners IT capacities portfolio or developed for the purpose of the project.
▪ the human resources involved in a modified operational process.
- Task 4.2: further to the definition of the architecture, the activity was to adapt the partners IT capacities and to develop the new features required to reach the system demonstrator definition in accordance with the retained case studies covering organizational and systemic level. It addressed the risk information production (Risk pattern production Risk monitoring or pattern patching, Risk information bulletin) and the management of change (Risk pattern’s evolution due to change)
- Task 4.3: then, the data collected from the case studies scope and provided by the end-user partners were integrated within the platform demonstrator as the PROSPERO IT capcities (outcomes of task 4.2) to enable the PROSPERO system demonstrator
- Tasks 4.4: the finalization work was to validate the PROSPERO demonstrator by executing the demonstration with respect to the case studies and analysing the results.
A mid-terms demonstration (D4.9) was presented to the EC in June 2014 with a restricted set of capabilities and data integration. It brought more conviction within the PROSPERO concept. And a final demonstration (D4.16) was held in June 2015 to the EC where the PROSPERO demonstrator was presented with respect to the use cases and it demonstrated the benefits and gains of such technologies and new proceses applicable to the safety management domain.
WP5 Case-Studies (M9-M36)
The overall objectives of WP5 were to organise and perform a set of Case Studies to support the actual development and implementation of the PROSPERO methodology at different levels of application. Three sets of Case Studies were designed and carried out in accordance with the three level of complexity of the PROSPERO approach. The case-sudies commenced at organisational level, in which each industrial stakeholder within the Consortium will develop and implement a case study properly shaped on its everyday activities. The second set of case studies, referred as systemic level case studies, proposes one common scenario focusing on integration of an operational situation engaging different types of stakeholders. Finally, the overall integrated PROSPERO approach enabled the implementation of a single case study at regulatory level, where all lessons learned in the previous case studies will be integrated in a regulatory perspective.
At organisational level, Five Case Studies were undertaken in the project, which ranged from new risk analysis based on cross-organizational big data analysis and predictive statistics to shared stakeholders change initiatives with very-long term horizons. The Case studies are as follows:
Case study 1 investigated the feasibility of identifying, integrating multiple data sets and domains (in ADR airport and AZ airline) successfully and identifying risk patterns as defined in Deliverable 3.6 and 3.8 of PROSPERO. A Key objective was to prove capacity of integrating and predicting bird-strike events as key hazard selected in the Project.
Case study 2 analysed the change and risks related to a complex procedural change in de-icing operations at the apron. A Change Management methodology was set and applied to test what kind of issues could arise from this change and how the company could manage and control risk in change.
Case Study 3 analysed the provision of a performance management system to support a full cycle of SMS on core operations for a small regional airport, linked to the airport core strategic objectives and the evaluation of the organizational changes initiated through this process. A combination of Prospective and Retrospective risk analysis support company operations and performance monitoring/evaluation.
Case Study 4 studied and supported the full implementation of ACDM at Arlanda airport. This involved the collaboration of a wide range of operational partners together with the airport authority.
Case Study 5 developed a risk metric for representing the complexity of air traffic in a sector to support air traffic controller decision-making and operational risk management. An ATM dashboard has been developed integrating aspects of complexity, safety and operations in air traffic control.
At systemic level: taken as a whole these case studies illustrate the PROSPERO system at the level of the Air Transport System (ATS). They illustrate both the operational loop of risk data and the change management loop, both of these involving different actors in the ATS. In essence, the “bird-strike” case study (Case Study 1) and the ATM complexity (Case Study 5) represent the Prospero Operational loop (combined as an ATS solution). The ADR and ACDM cases (Case Study 2 and 4) represent change; not just airport change, but also the other ATS partners. SAGA case about SMS implementation (Case study 3) represented both the Operational to the Change management loop with a whole system risk assessment airport, airline, ATM, emergency services - a complete system level case.
The case study at regulatory level consisted in a workshop held at the end of June 2015 at EASA premises in Cologne, with the following objectives:
• To present an overview of the PROSPERO concept and its realisation in a set of case studies;
• To discuss ways in which the PROSPERO approach addresses current regulatory activities in Europe concerning, for example, performance, safety, risk, reporting and organisational requirements;
• To discuss potential benefits for regulation and for national and European authorities that could arise from implementing the PROSPERO approach in aviation organisations;
• To address future developments in areas like software systems, safety services and research priorities.
The workshop combined presentations of the PROSPERO concept, the system and the case studies alongside presentations from EASA on: mandatory and voluntary reporting, SMS, risk assessment; performance of the whole Air Transport system. The EASA focus is to try to make this work as a system, not just as a set of rules and standards. Thus it is required under the reporting directive to report the analysis of the event and the implementation of actions, and to encourage more comprehensive voluntary reporting. They want to make the ECCAIRS database that holds all this data more accessible and usable by the aviation community. This is part of a shift in thinking towards considering regulation as part of a global SMS. EASA are very interested in large data, sharing of data between organisations and responded with interest to the ideas put forward about this being a knowledge business, and about gathering risk data from all the services along a process, integrating and then reapportioning the resulting risk information to each service provider according to its process, creating networks of sharing through nodes (airports, ATM) so that competing airlines are not forced to directly share, but only indirectly through common interest and common value. They were impressed with the range of work and the depth of involvement with the operational organisations. There was a good discussion on the issue of confidentiality and the possibility of configuring this in a slightly different way, including how protections could be built in. The Single European Sky is in Reference period 2 (2015-1019) but are already planning for RP3 (2020-). This is where they hope to be able to achieve an effective safety performance metric. PROSPERO could be seen as part of the solution to this. There are important opportunities both for a commercial PROSPERO solution and for a follow-on project to contribute tangibly to this strategic goal.
WP6 Validation (M2-M36)
WP 6 had two primary aims: (i) to deliver feedback, useful for refining and improving the project outcome during the project lifecycle, and (ii) to provide evidence about the fitness for purpose of the PROSPERO approach at the end of the project.
The validation activities in PROSPERO were based on the European Operational Concept Validation Methodology (E-OCVM). The validation approach was iterative, and was linked to the different technical work packages. The validation activities in PROSPERO were designed to provide feedback to the technical project activities, and to aggregate and to provide evidence about the fitness for purpose of the PROSPERO approach.
The validation work started in November 2012 (M1). During the period November 2012 – April 2013 (M1 – M6) the high-level validation strategy and validation plan for PROSPERO were developed. These are set out in deliverable 6-3 (submitted in April 2013). The deliverable describes the overall validation approach and validation objectives, the validation exercises undertaken thus far, and the plan for future validation activities during M7-M24. Interim findings from the validation were described in deliverable 6-15 (submitted in March 2014), and the final validation results were reported in deliverable 6-18 (submitted in December 2015).
WP7 Impact & Dissemination (M1-M36)
Work Package 7 started at the very beginning of the PROSPERO project. Its primary objective was to define and implement an integrated strategy for impact and dissemination that captured the project outputs and detailed how to communicate and exploit them within target audiences in industry as well as research communities, the wider aviation community and key institutional stakeholders. The overall exploitation and dissemination strategy has been effective. The key objectives were to:
• First, to capture the concepts, outputs and benefits of the project, and present them in an understandable and relevant way to the external audience – primarily lead and end users. These key stakeholders will then develop, implement and spread these results after the project is completed – and in doing so, ensure PROSPERO’s longevity.
• Second, to ensure a cohesive and clear understanding of the progress, outputs, benefits and implications of the PROSPERO project among all 14 partners. Effective communication within internal audiences throughout the project helps to keep the focus across work packages on industry needs.
• The objective of exploitation was to ensure the uptake of the results by lead users when the project has been completed. In PROSPERO, the dissemination and exploitation strategy was flexible, adaptable and scalable. The analysis of audiences, key messages and channels was ongoing and was evaluated and updated for the duration of the project.
The previous deliverable 7.5 outlined the initial dissemination and exploitation strategy for PROSPERO which detailed the key messages for the project, target audiences, dissemination channels and dissemination activities for the project. However, the analysis of audiences, messages and channels was ongoing throughout the project. They were continually evaluated and updated to ensure communications were always relevant, up to date and in pace with the progress of industry and research sectors.
The principle dissemination channels used throughout the lifetime of PROSPERO included:
• Online Communications: the project website, Twitter account, multimedia content, e-zines
• Marketing Materials: professionally designed pull-up stands, posters, brochures, business cards
• Media Relations
• Internal Communications
The principle exploitation activities conducted to ensure the PROSPERO solutions of knowledge creation, knowledge services and data services were applied beyond the project’s lifetime included:
• Development of the TCD Masters programme
• Attendance at industry and academic conferences and events
• Pilot studies of the PROSPERO solution
• Academic Dissemination
• Presentation in EU Parliament in Brussels
• Workshop with EASA in Cologne
• Final event and webinar in Dublin
• Networking at AeroDays Conference in London
2.3 Project Achievements
The key achievement of PROSPERO is to show that the core concept is right. The PROSPERO demonstration has shown the technical capability that underpins the concept. The logic of this is accepted by main stakeholders, both on the operational side and the research and development side. Organisational commitment from the operational partners has been demonstrated in the case studies.
Underlying this achievement is the realization that collaboration and data sharing between aviation partners is possible but difficult & slow. This is a major advance on the assumptions at the start of project, which were broadly skeptical of the projects ambitions. This involved the ddemonstration of value from initially simple to progressively more complex analyses. This progress built trust between the partners and ssustaining that trust was essential to the ccommitment to continue collaboration which has been produced by the project.
The project has delivered the capability to develop and deliver an operationally effective solution. Furthermore, there is considerable operational interest in participating in further development.
It has been shown that the integration of existing databases poses great challenges. There are sensitivities about process antecedents that could implicate crew or others in negative aspects of an analysis. The ‘ownership’ & control of databases in different silos (even within one organization) provide continuing barriers. Confidentiality of data as well as commercially sensitive areas both provides negative incentives to share.
For these reasons the routine flow of data that had been anticipated is not yet achieved. Instead the concept has been demonstrated through sspecific analyses of data. Again, the pprospective pattern matching of planning data is not yet achieved, but the capability to undertake that type of analysis has been demonstrated. This is important because of the ggreater leverage through designing-out / planning-to avoid the risk. A direct linking of organisational change to performance improvement is also not yet demonstrated. Realistically, given the pace of change programmes, and the time taken to develop analysis capabilities it would not have been realistic to demonstrate system performance improvement as a result of a change initiative within the timescale of the project.
The overall PROSPERO concept was presented at the EU Parliament in an event attended by key aviation stakeholders. A one-day workshop with EASA demonstrated the relevance of PROSPERO to a range of regulatory initiatives. These include the achieving of a Single European Sky safety performance framework, regulations on SMS, Voluntary and mandatory reporting and on Airport responsibility for safety.
The following risks were identified at the 18 month period. The table below summarises how those risks were mitigated.
Potential Risk/Challenge Mitigations
Availability of a comprehensive range of operational data to test system risk concept A shared database on bird strikes linking Aeroporti di Roma and Alitalia provided sufficient data for the system demonstration.
Functional integration of software in PROSPERO system The system demonstration delivered a sequence of operations by separate software systems demonstrating the functional integration of the PROSPERO system across different software components.
Achieving a feedback loop through aviation operations (operational loop) The Jeppesen ‘Door-to-door’ application provided a demonstration bringing risk information into the operation.
Achieving change evaluation loop The change loop was demonstrated through case studies in Swedavia, Aeroporti di Roma and SAGA.
Demonstration at regulatory level A one-day workshop with EASA demonstrated the relevance of PROSPERO to a range of regulatory initiatives. These include the achieving of a Single European Sky safety performance framework, regulations on SMS, Voluntary and mandatory reporting and on Airport responsibility for safety.
Prevention of delays Extending the delivery dates for key deliverables in WPs 4, 5 and 6, so as to more effectively use the whole 18-month period, with concurrent system integration, case studies and evaluation, allowed a more effective integrated outcome for the project as a whole.
Achieving evaluation objectives Delay in submitting the deliverable 6.4 for 3 months was helpful in the achievement of a coherent implementation of the plan over the final 18 months.
Developing exploitation plan The exploitation intentions of partners reflect a willingness to collaborate in the longer term – both in terms of further research and in establishing a commercial collaboration to develop the core PROSPERO concepts.
Table 1: Overview of Identified Risks & Mitigation Plans
1 Update on Work-Packages
1.1 WP 1 Project Management
1.1.1 Consortium Co-ordination & Project Management Meetings
There was on-going co-ordination at all levels of the work-programme throughout the duration of the project. During the duration of the project of the project there were ten high level strategic planning meetings took place where representatives from all partner organisations attended.
• The PROSPERO Advisory Board meeting & kick-off work-shop took place on the 21st & 22nd November 2012.
The objective of the work-shop on the first day was to present and discuss the goals and expectations from an industrial and regulatory perspective. Therefore we invited members of the Advisory Board to attend and give key-note presentations in order to ensure their influence on the development and direction of the project right from the onset of the project. Representatives from the PROSPERO Consortium also gave key note presentations from their experiences and current challenges facing the industry. Following the key outputs of the first day, the second day focused on the PROSPERO work-programme (specifically WP 1, 2 & 7), presenting the proposed collaborative learning framework for the project and to ensure all partners are familiar with all administrative and financial reporting requirements for EU projects. The PROSPERO Scientific Officer was in attendance on the second day.
• The second plenary meeting/work-shop took place on the 11th & 12th March 2013 June at Aeroporti di Roma in Rome.
The objectives of this two day workshop were to present the findings of the first phase of research, discuss the implications and agree on a number of industrial based change interventions.
• The third plenary meeting took place on the 31st July & 1st August, 2013 in Dublin
The objectives of this 2-day workshop were to review the most critical requirements for the future PROSPERO system functionality: from gathering risk data as inputs to the system to managing complex risk data. The workshop partners involved provided different lists of data types and sources (types of KPIs and SPIs) to meet such safety/risk functionality. Together with the selection of data types an agreement will be taken on the expected basic functionality and framework for the future PROSPERO system. The second key objective of the work-shop was to kick-start WP 5 and agree the guidelines for the PROSPERO Case-Studies.
• The fourth plenary meeting took place on the 24th & 25th September 2013 and was held in Dublin.
The key objectives of the two day meeting were to progress the work to date on the functional specification and agree the components of the overall PROSPERO System and to ensure overall system integration. To link the PROSPERO system concept to the case-studies, agree key action items in progressing the case studies and system integration. The overall strategy on the overall exploitation and dissemination for the PROSPERO system was also discussed.
• The fifth plenary meeting and Advisory Board meeting took place on the 8th and 9th of April 2014 in Rome
The overall objective of the first day was to provide and update the Advisory Board on the PROSPERO project. The focus of the meeting was to facilitate a walk-through of the PROSPERO system; further progress the implementation scenarios including the regulatory level case-study; EUROCONTROL to present on OPTICS as PROSPERO is on the list of projects to be evaluated by OPTICS (wrt ACARE safety-related goals); and to agree next steps. The focus of the second day centred on the PROSPERO System Integration, Developments, Use Cases and Scenarios for both WP4 and 5.
• The sixth plenary meeting (Mid-Term Review) took place on the 27th and 28th May 2014 in Athens International Airport.
The key objectives of day 1 were as follows (i) to review the progress of the PROSPERO project as the mid-term stage; (ii) to plan and prepare the PROSPERO ‘mock-up’ demonstrator; (iii) to plan the PROSPERO work-programme for next reporting period. The objectives of Day 2 were as follows: (i) is to provide an update and strategy going forward in relation to the overall validation of the project outputs; (ii) presentation on overall dissemination & exploitation strategy; (iii) project management requirements to fulfil the contractual requirements at M18; (iv) case-study planning.
• The seventh plenary meeting took place on the 1st and 2nd of October 2014 in Madrid.
The key objectives of day 1 were as follows: updating all partners on 18 month review: PROSPERO System Demo 1 presentation to EU; updating current status on system development & planning for demo 2; update and planning on case-studies. The objectives of day 2 were as follows: reporting back on the exploitation survey; running a work-shop to address issues around effective collaboration within & beyond the project; planning the dissemination activities for final year including work-shop with regulatory body; consolidation of all key action items for final year of project.
• The eight plenary meeting took place on the 4th February 2015 in Brussels.
This plenary meeting followed the very successful EU parliament event on the 3rd of February. The overall objectives of this PROSPERO plenary meeting is to agree the overall scope and project plan for the PROSPERO System demo 2 and the alignment of the technology capability with the case-studies development and exploitation plans.
• The ninth plenary meeting took place on the 6th and 7th May 2015 in Dublin
The overall objective of the meeting on the Day 1 was to progress the technological developments required for PROSPERO System Demo 2, focusing on presenting the 3 parts of the overall demonstrator (in a preliminary dry-run format) and eliciting feedback from project partners. Carr Communications will also run the first part of a dedicated work-shop on disseminating and exploiting the outputs from PROSPERO.
The overall objectives of the meeting on Day 2 was to progress the overall progress and validation of the PROSPERO Case-Studies, with a particular focus on the plans for the Regulatory Case-Study and Regulatory Work-Shop. Carr Communications will also run the first part of a dedicated work-shop on disseminating and exploiting the outputs from PROSPERO.
• The tenth and final plenary meeting took place on the 13th and 13th October 2015 in Dublin
The overall objectives of day 1 were to prepare for the final PROSPERO online dissemination event and to discuss and agree plans for developing the PROSPERO system beyond the project. The morning of day 2 was dedicated to running the final online PROSPERO dissemination event (09:30 – 12:00). The afternoon was dedicated to going through the formalities of finalising PROSPERO. PROSPERO hosted its final dissemination event with a blended approach of on-site as well as on-line. The Dublin based partners gathered in a Dublin conference centre, while other participants joined the event through a live web-link. This event addressed the benefits and results of the project and also outlined the future for the project results.
Participants were from EASA, European Commission, SESAR, civil defense organisations, and a number of airlines, airports and private sector companies
EASA work-shop
In between these ten high level plenary meetings there was on-going communication both between the research partners and between the researchers and end-user organisations. This on-going communication (weekly basis) was greatly facilitated by on-line meeting utilising both Go-To-Meeting technology and skype as well as a number of bilateral face-face meetings.
The Project Co-ordinator played a very active role in participating in meetings and workshops across all strands of work. This level of participation was necessary in order to ensure overall PROSPERO objectives were maintained and further developed in line with the specified work programme.
Overall the project has been successful in achieving a high level of co-ordination, communication and ensuring an integrated and synergetic approach to all aspects of research activities and project management.
1.1.2 Project-Place
Project Place (PP) is one of the leading social project-collaboration software platforms and it was introduced right from the onset of the project in order to manage all project activities and ensure ongoing communication and project visibility. All members of the project registered and actively used the platform as per the guidelines set down in the PROSPERO project management hand book. The key functionalities of ProjectPlace included document management, document review & updates (version management), email communication, overall time-line and calendar entries.. A team of administrators had the overall responsibility for the ongoing moderation and engagement of the platform.
1.1.3 Accession of New Partners to PROSPERO Consortium
Due to the withdrawal of ENAV during the negotiation phase of the PROSPERO project the funds allocated to them were retained by TCD with the objective of re-distributing these funds to a replacement partner(s). While ENAV did withdraw as a full partner they had agreed to become a member of the PROSPERO Advisory Board. The formal process of finalising the inclusion of SAGA and Swedavia was not finalised until June 2014. However SAGA have officially joined the Consortium on the 1st of October 2013 and Swedavia on the 1st April 2014.
1.2 WP2 Definition of Requirements
The overall objectives of the definition of requirements work package were to define the system of systems and identify needs for various stakeholders within the overall system. The objective of doing that is to further validate, define and develop the PROSPERO operational concept that was initially presented in the proposal as well as to guide the way forward in the following project work packages. PROSPERO adopts a needs-based approach that can be validated against end-user acceptability and stakeholder assessment of domain suitability.
The output of WP2 was a very detailed, thorough and expanive report (D2.2) in order to make transparent all the activities and results derived in this WP2, including: the initial proposed PROSPERO concept, the methodolgy used for this work package, the field research with description of the current context and identified industrial needs as well as gaps between the envisioned system, current context and needs, resulting definitions of requirements for research, and finally a discussion on what is to be prioritized, developed and implemented in the life time of the PROSPERO project.
D2.2 contains 10 chapters as follows:
• Chapter 1: Introduction of PROSPERO and WP2
• Chapter 2: Initial PROSPERO operational concept
• Chapter 3: Methodology
• Chapter 4: Field research – organizational level
• Chapter 5: Field research – regulatory level
• Chapter 6: Field research – system level (combinations of the above)
• Chapter 7: Risk assessment approaches and issues in industry and PROSPERO
• Chapter 8: Progression of the PROSPERO concept development
• Chapter 9: Revised PROSPERO model
• Chapter 10: Identified required research and implementation implications of the PROSPERO operational concept
The short duration of WP2 (six working months) did pose a challenge considering the enormous complexity of the research required for this concept at this stage of the project as well as the many stakeholders across the ATS. The research partners managed to meet and collect data from all stakeholders including end-users as well as providers of technologies. Academic researchers also provided theoretical frameworks. The Advisory Board extended this reach to include regulators, authorities and expertise in various fields. Additional participants for data collection were selected based upon established contacts or regional closeness.
Investigations and field studies (e.g. interviews, document analysis, observations, work-shops etc.) have been conducted focusing on the risk information systems and organizational learning processes for managing safety performance described in the PROSPERO model.
• Two partner meetings were held, the Kick-off meeting and the Rome Workshop
• Two workshops with several service providers forming a local system was conducted, one in Athens and one in Rome.
• Approximately 10 interviews were performed with industry or regulatory representatives
• One survey was launched for Star Alliance partners (6 replies so far)
• A common risk classification study was performed with four industrial partners
In the proposal these themes were identified as challenges and promises how the operational concept in PROSPERO was to respond to these were initially discussed:
• Quantitative risk assessment
• Common integrated risk analysis
• Operational management of risk
• Preparation for emergencies
• Risk managing design and change
• Regulating risk
The initial operational concepts were described as two cycles derived from a common process of risk information production. The two cycles were an Operational loop and a Learning loop.
In summary the key findings from WP2 include
• A revised operational concept (See figure 5) revised model of the various organizational and system levels (see figures 3, 4) was developed
• Industry validation of the themes for future needs.
A revised operational concept
A revised operational concept (See figure 5) and revised model of the various system levels (see figures 3, 4) was developed. The main development was to let the model reflect the identified main research themes of risk information production, customisation and distribution to the two loops of real time operational risk management and management processes enabling operational process improvement through the loop of System improvement and change.
Figure 1Organisational level
Figure 2 System level
Figure 3 System of system including the Regulatory level
Industry validation of the themes for future needs.
The two themes of industrial needs that were strongly articulated in the field research are quantitative risk assessment and the common integrated risk analysis. The field research did not show as strong evidence for industrial needs for the other four areas: operational management of risk, preparation for emergencies, risk-managing design and change, and regulating risk. The research themes of Quantitative risk assessment and the Common integrated risk analysis are both essential parts of the Risk Information Production function. In the revised model of the PROSPERO concept, risk information production includes the steps of: collecting data, risk assessment and data analysis, customisation for intended use and distribution of the risk information to the user(s). Of these functions the theoretically most challenging area is the risk assessment. When this is resolved it will enable a “pull” of identified relevant risk data from various sources, system levels and stakeholders.
The R&D needs of PROSPERO involve a complex combination of methodologies, information systems and software, organisational processes, and social and business relations between stakeholders. Each of these requires a specific research focus, but not in isolation - rather, as a multi-layered systems integration project. These needs now should be expressed as a set of requirements against which PROSPERO can clearly demonstrate the feasibility (in terms of technical criteria, rules and procedures, organisational capabilities, etc.) of a data-driven framework with common methodologies to understand risk in air transport as a system, and to show how to use that knowledge to mitigate risk in everyday operations and to radically transform the risk through future system design.
1.3 WP3 Design & Preparation
The overall objectives of WP3 Design and Preparation were to define the key functional requirements and specifications of the future PROSPERO system. In particular, a series of research and development activities resulted in the following deliveries:
1) (WP3 Task 1a) - A selection of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for risk data types and operational information. This has been obtained by the definition of a Prospero General KPIs List composed by:
a. identification of KPIs ready to access for Airports
b. identification of KPIs ready to access for Airlines
c. identification of KPIs ready to access for ATM services
The overall number of KPIs potentially available in July 2014 is 718.
2) (WP3 Task 1b) – Preparation of the new PROSPERO risk methodology service integrating known (and mandatory) risk methods with a brand new data-driven risk approaches. This has been designed by having
a. Expert Risk Models (known/mandatory risk methodologies) leading actual risk data analysis (e.g. Data Science approach)
b. Real risk data availability informing back Expert Risk Models
An integration of data-driven and (risk) model-driven approaches to risk assessment has been put forward
3) (WP3-Task 2 and Task 3) New functions and functional requirements dedicated to risk information distribution and systems have been specified:
a. Communication and distribution protocols (Jeppesen)
b. Integration Strategy approach (Thales)
4) (WP3-T4) - The organizational readiness and competency requirements to implement technically the PROSPERO system has been specified
a. Learning and Mentoring framework requirements
b. SMS and Regulatory requirements and Prospero systems
c. Case Studies and Prospero functionalities
The T4 initiated also the application of structured enquiries to assess the level of preparedness to system changes in the PROSPERO framework.
All the above achievements are fully described in Deliverable D3.6 (see D3.6). This Deliverable targeted the four key core elements of the PROSPERO architecture as follows:
1. Data Providers (DP):
a. The end users providing access to risk data
2. Risk Information Analysis Providers (RIAP)
a. The network of services to organise and process risk data
3. Risk Intelligence Distribution Providers (RIDP)
a. The network of services that allows the risk data exchange and communication
4. Risk Intelligence Use (RIU):
a. The end users receiving the new knowledge on risk and how to apply such knowledge for risk management, advanced SMS uses, system design and change management uses.
The Output of D3.6 will feed into WP4 (Prospero System Integration) and WP5 (to develop Case Studies to meet Prospero Functions)
Deviation: Deliverable D3.6 was postponed for submission at end of October instead of End of September.
Finally Deliverable D3.8 extended the previous Deliverable D3.6 by targeting the required data and information flow specifications together with expected PROSPERO tasks and process logics as well as dedicated future PROSPERO system roles.
Such complex modelling efforts has focused on the total functional requirements and specifications to sustain the design and development of a new system for proactive safety risk monitoring, control and change processes.
Deliverable 3.8 provided a detailed modelling of the PROSPERO system as (see D3.8):
• PROSPERO Information Flow system – mapping the step-by-step data transfer / communication flow across the PROSPERO system users
• PROSPERO Aviation Integration Process – mapping the tasks and actions of coordinated multi-partners developing system risk models
• PROSPERO Role maps – mapping all expected roles allocated to various risk functions
The Output of D3.6 will feed into WP4 (Prospero System Integration) and WP5 (to develop Case Studies to meet Prospero Functions).
Also, in the WP3 – Task 4 it was necessary to develop and provide a PROSPERO Consent Form to facilitate data and information flow exchanges across multiple partners that would not generally acting in collaborative decision making modes.
1.4 WP4 Develop & Integrate
The WP4 objectives were to “Develop and Integrate” the PROSPERO system demonstrator to assess PROSPERO concept and capacities. The demonstrator is oriented to the production, the distribution and the use of risk information based on data collections from stakeholders (Airline/airport/ATC) and data analytics to support risk analysis and risk monitoring. It made use of the design preparation and specification from WP3 and the case studies proposed by WP5.
In June 2014, the first half-period of WP4 activities was concluded by a presentation of the PROSPERO demonstrator concept (D4.9) to the European Commission enabling the PROSPERO technical capacities in a standalone approach (i.e. no integration) with a restricted set of data. However, this demonstration strengthened the confidence within the whole PROSPERO concepts
The second half-period of activities was to select a physical architecture as “backbone” of the technical capacities and to integrate them. The main activities managed during this period were:
▪ The technical definition and the selection of the architecture relevant to the project context and challenges.
▪ The development and the software adaptation finalization of the enabling capacities to support the case studies: e.g. data mining algorithms and interfaces development, pattern matching interface adaptation, EFB risk information interface development...
▪ The integration of the overall IT means and the datasets provided by the end-user partners: e.g. integration of bird strike safety data from an airline and an airport into the data integration platform.
▪ The run of PROSPERO process through the demonstrator and the results analysis.
Due to the number of interfaces and partners involved within the demonstrator development and integration, a work effort of coordination was required: Weekly meetings were installed to synchronize WP4 partners progresses on their developments and integrations in addition of the technical workshops required to validate a common orientations and solutions.
Furthermore, due to the data sensitiveness handling, a specific management focus was applied for data collection. The objective was to clarify the type/volume/quality of data required and to support the end-user partners in the process of sharing them within the project context for the purpose of the demonstration. In spite of these efforts, the collected data required to restrict the demonstration/demonstrator scope. For instance, the PROSPERO demonstrator was not connected to real time data source to enable pattern matching. This capacity was performed and demonstrated on a simulated dataset extracted from the collected data.
These WP4 activity achievements ended to the successful final demonstration (D4.16) in June 2015 to the EC where the PROSPERO platform demonstrator was presented through the demonstration of 3 case studies. Although the collaboration at systemic level (i.e. between organizations) is a real challenge in sharing data (not from technical perspective), it was demonstrated that even with few operational datasets from different stakeholders, the data analysis brings value in risk assessment and monitoring. The predictive capacities are an innovative safety approach which focuses on the precursor’s analysis to better monitor operations and changes.
1.5 WP5 Case-Studies
WP5 started in July 2013 during a project meeting in Dublin, while the Consortium was exploring the internal capabilities compatible with the emerging PROSPERO architecture. It has been extended right until the end of the project as opposed to ending in M30 as indicated in the DoW. This extension was required in order to capture a more fuller account of fulfillment of the case-studies as systemic level.
An important Work Package 5 meeting was held in Milan in December 2013, during which, according to the development of the PROSPERO concept, the entire consortium was questioned and invited to agree/discuss the general approach to follow in managing the case studies development. During this event, scenarios for the organizational level case studies have been decided, matching some of the needs expressed during Work Package 2 activities.
In Task 5.1 – Set up and implementation of Case studies at Organizational level, the industrial stakeholders have performed the selected case studies on the basis of a questionnaire, subdivided into two phases. The first phase, more general, described the state of the art in each organization for the collection, availability and analysis of safety related data and for the execution of risk analysis. The second phase narrowed down on the development of a real risk evaluation, asking for information on how a risk assessment is actually carried out within the Organization, by following each step of the internal procedure.
The outcomes of this activity were presented at the project meetings in Dublin (February 2014) and in Rome (April 2014), and all partners were updated on similarities and differences arising from the various feedbacks received.
Results of this activity and of the comparative analysis are reported in Deliverable D. 5.10 - Report on case studies at organizational level, which was submitted to the EC at the end of April 2014. This Deliverable firstly summaries the tight links with previous work packages and illustrates the activities carried in the first part of Work Package 5. Then, it describes the development of case studies and introduces some important preparatory notions for the development of the integrated PROSPERO-tool and for the performance of case studies at systemic level.
Task 5.2 – Set up and implementation of case studies at system level started at the beginning of May 2014. For these case studies, three scenarios had been depicted, namely:
1. Air Transport System Risk Assessment based on Shared Data between Airlines and Airports;
2. Managing the Risk of Change In European Airports (compromising the ADR, SAGA & Swedavia case-studies);
3. Simulation of ATM Performance and Risk.
They aimed at demonstrating the theoretical solidity of the innovative PROSPERO approach as well as the requirements for its implementation, exploiting the variety of partners composing the project Consortium. As stated by the three cases studies’ titles, the PROSPERO concept has been modeled upon different sectors of the aviation operational reality, proving how this approach can easily adapt to various operative needs. They also proved the richness of aggregated data in terms of risk information, as well as the benefits of using more advanced data mining techniques instead of simple statistical tools. Finally, they clearly stated the difficulties in implementing into a competitive sectors such approach, which poses its basis upon the sharing of data between different stakeholders.
Results of this activity and of the comparative analysis are reported in Deliverable D. 5.14 - Report on Case Studies at System Level.
Task 5.3 – Set up and implementation of case study at regulatory level started at the beginning of February 2015 and it consisted in a workshop held at the end of June 2015 at EASA premises in Cologne, with the following objectives:
• To present an overview of the PROSPERO concept and its realisation in a set of case studies;
• To discuss ways in which the PROSPERO approach addresses current regulatory activities in Europe concerning, for example, performance, safety, risk, reporting and organisational requirements;
• To discuss potential benefits for regulation and for national and European authorities that could arise from implementing the PROSPERO approach in aviation organisations;
• To address future developments in areas like software systems, safety services and research priorities.
From the fruitful and intense discussion, many contacts point between the two approaches have been remarked, showing how PROSPERO is the most advanced means of compliance with an emerging proactive, performance-based and systemic regulatory framework, in which the implementation of a Safety Management System in single organisations adds value to the safety of the overall system.
Report of the event, description of both EASA and PROSPERO modi operandi and comparative analysis are reported in Deliverable D. 5.17 - Report on Case-Study at Regulatory Level.
1.6 WP6 Validation
The validation activities in PROSPERO were based on the European Operational Concept Validation Methodology (E-OCVM). The validation approach was iterative, and was linked to the different technical work packages. The validation activities in PROSPERO were designed to provide feedback to the technical project activities, and to aggregate and to provide evidence about the fitness for purpose of the PROSPERO approach.
The validation work started in November 2012 (M1). During the period November 2012 – April 2013 (M1 – M6) the high-level validation strategy and validation plan for PROSPERO were developed. These are set out in deliverable 6-3 (submitted in April 2013). The deliverable describes the overall validation approach and validation objectives, the validation exercises undertaken thus far, and the plan for future validation activities during M7-M24. Interim findings from the validation were described in deliverable 6-15 (submitted in March 2014), and the final validation results were reported in deliverable 6-18 (submitted in December 2015).
PROSPERO started at phase V0 of the operational life cycle model (ATM needs) and was expected to progress through V1 (scope) to V2 (feasibility). The mapping between project activities, operational concept maturity levels, and the stakeholders who are involved is shown in Table xxx.
WP Maturity Level Stakeholders
WP2 – Definition of requirements V0 ATM needs
Research community, technology providers, ANSP, airlines, airports, regulatory bodies
WP3 – Design and prepare V0 ATM needs
V1 Scope
Research community, technology providers, ANSP, airlines, airports, regulatory bodies
WP4 – Develop and integrate V2 Feasibility Technology providers, ANSP, airlines, airports, regulatory bodies
WP5 – Case study finalisations V1 Scope
V2 Feasibility Technology providers, ANSP, airlines, airports, regulatory bodies
Table 2 Project activities, maturity levels, and stakeholders
Validation of the PROSPERO operational concept utilised a qualitative and realist approach. Validation at levels V0 and V1 was based predominantly on feedback from stakeholders elicited through focus groups and workshops, and semi-structured interviews. Validation at level V2 was based on a realist approach. A realist approach aims not only to establish whether an intervention has led to improvements in outcomes in real-world settings – but also how these changes have come about, i.e. a description of the mechanisms that brought about change, and of the context within which the change took place.
Validation activities have been carried out as follows:
V0 – ATM Needs Exposition of research methods to provide confidence in the research results, and participant validation in stakeholder workshops. ATM needs have been documented in Deliverable D2-2.
V1 - Scope Stakeholder workshops, semi-structured interviews with stakeholders. The PROSPERO operational concept has been specified in Deliverable D3-6, and then in revised form in Deliverable D3-8.
V2 - Feasibility Realist evaluation of case studies. Case studies have been described in Deliverable D5-10 and Deliverable D5-17.
Key findings from the validation are:
V0 – ATM Needs A robust approach utilising three key research instruments was followed in order to identify ATM needs: (a) identification of research gaps through literature reviews, (b) elicitation of stakeholder needs through structured interviews, and (c) refinement and validation of stakeholder needs in workshops.
A purposive sample of air traffic system stakeholders provided refinement and validation of the identified stakeholder needs in three stakeholder workshops. Participants reached a shared vision of the PROSPERO aims and high-level stakeholder needs, as well as an appreciation of what higher-level needs might mean for specific stakeholders.
V1 - Scope The development of the PROSPERO functional specification was supported and validated through a series of stakeholder workshops. At each workshop, participants reviewed progress, actively contributed to the refinement of the functional specification, and provided feedback for further development.
Analysis of semi-structured interviews with stakeholders suggests that: (a) project participants achieved consensus about the project aims, (b) the first functional specification (D3-6) required further detail and consideration of all stakeholder groups, which was subsequently achieved in the revised functional specification (D3-8), and the case studies should aim to provide detail about how the PROSPERO functionality contributes to satisfying ATM needs in practice.
V2 - Feasibility PROSPERO functionality has been validated in three case studies: (a) managing the risk of change in European airports, (b) Air transport system risk assessment based on shared data between airports and airlines, and (c) supporting compliance with and satisfaction of European regulatory requirements.
The following functions have been successfully validated: (1) Structured Enquiry to support change management loop, (2) data sharing among aviation stakeholders, (3) data integration, (4) data mining, (5) risk pattern matching, and (6) risk intelligence distribution.
Further work Challenges that should be investigated in further work include:
(a) Access to data and data quality remain a crucial issue. Ways for overcoming barriers to data sharing should be investigated, and the benefits of data sharing need to be clearly articulated and demonstrated to stakeholders.
(b) The bird strike example was a convenient case study as it facilitated access to data, but it limited the utility of the PROSPERO functions. Further case studies should explore the extent to which the data integration, data mining, risk pattern matching, and risk intelligence distribution functions enhance the existing risk model for other types of events.
(c) The bird strike example operated with partially simulated data. Further work should investigate the feasibility of data integration, data mining, risk pattern matching and risk intelligence distribution in a live environment with large amounts of disparate data.
(d) At the regulatory level, further work should explore practical ways in which PROSPERO can support not only compliance with regulatory requirements, but also facilitate regulatory oversight functions themselves.
1.7 WP7 Impact & Dissemination
In the PROSPERO project Description of Work, we set out a comprehensive list of the dissemination and exploitation objectives for WP7 and the wider project. In summary, to:
• Keep the entire project focused on projected industry needs
• Review how well PROSPERO addressed those needs
• Define and implement an integrated strategy for impact and dissemination (capturing project outputs and how to communicate and exploit them within target audiences in industry, research communities, wider aviation community and key institutional stakeholders)
• Establish an Advisory Board
• Provide regular, active, real-time engagement and information about the project and its results to target audiences
• Establish links with international research networks and ongoing EU and national projects on topics related to safety in particular where standardisation issues are considered
• Promote the results and benefits of the project
• Make the results and benefits of the developed outputs attractive and known to industry, by focusing on the exploitation and impact of the research. (In the later months of the PROSPERO project, as results became available, it became clear that the PROSPERO concept was of interest to more specialist audiences, rather than generalist and mass media, as initially thought earlier in the project. For this reason, media relations were subsequently targeted at specialist media including aviation, technology, business and EU specialists.)
Significant progress was made across each of these objectives, as outlined in WP7 deliverables, most recently - D7.19 Dissemination and Exploitation Strategy (review) (M36) and D7.22 Dissemination Report (review) (M36).
The Dissemination and Learning Framework was developed during the first year of the project. This provided an overview on all dissemination efforts and priorities across the project under the following headings:
• Industry needs
• Key messages – benefits of the PROSPERO system
• Target audiences
• Dissemination channels and activities – internal learning and collaboration
• Dissemination channels – external
• Dissemination activities
We identified the most appropriate channels to reach the key target audiences for PROSPERO. We include a brief summary of some of the main achievements under dissemination channels. For a more detailed description, please refer to D7.22.
Website
• The PROSPERO website and online dissemination have been an important element of engagement with PROSPERO key target audiences.
• The PROSPERO website (www.prosperofp7.eu) went live in on 12th December 2012, within six weeks of the project start date.
• Google Analytics reported that the project website www.prosperofp7.eu had received 1,022 visits up to 21 April 2014, divided evenly between new and returning visitors.
• The project website had received over 3,000 visitors up to October 2015. Of these visitors, over one quarter were return visitors while almost 75 percent were new visitors.
Social Media
Twitter has proven to be a very successful dissemination channel for the project:
• We have written almost 700 Tweets, are Following 1,332 stakeholders in the aviation and related industries; and we have attracted 286 Followers.
• Twitter analytic reports demonstrate the high levels of engagement. In one particular week the PROSPERO profile was viewed 342 times.
• During the lifetime of the project we continually engaged with the PROSPERO network, utilising hashtags and becoming involved in conversations.
Videos & Digital Media
A dedicated, PROSPERO-branded YouTube channel was set up to present the project videos. The videos were also made available on the PROSPERO website’s video gallery section.
We have produced a series of videos to disseminate results and benefits of the project in an easy-to-understand way:
• An introduction to the PROSPERO Project by the project coordinator, Professor Nick McDonald from Trinity College, Dublin. (Filmed July 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLVSV2XNtBw
• An introductory overview to the project featuring representatives from some of the project partner organisations. (Filmed July 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lkm2uaxpko
• A mid-project overview by project coordinator, Professor Nick McDonald. (Filmed December 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiCiQuy56kE
• A mid-project assessment of progress featuring representatives from some of the project partner organisations. (Filmed December 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkvLTWJCz4k
Additionally, we produced an internal video to capture an interactive workshop held at the Dublin meeting in February 2014. Although not for public use, it has been shown to all of the partners.
A number of videos of interviews with Advisory Board members, were filmed at the Rome meeting in April 2014. The members were asked about the potential of the PROSPERO project and how it meets industry needs. Feedback from all participants was very positive.
The videos are now available on YouTube at the below links. They have had 90 views overall.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaVSciq5gbI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8P3HXFr3yU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izsauyGqWh0
An animation video was produced to explain the PROSPERO concept at the European Parliament event in February 2015. This video was very well received at the event, and was uploaded to YouTube. Up until the 4th of November 2105, it had achieved 190 views on YouTube.
The video is available to view on YouTube at the following link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebBaVEwPHIE
Videos have also been used under Dissemination Channels and Activities for Internal Learning and Collaboration, such as:
a. Webinars which have been recorded and uploaded to the website
b. Videos used during training sessions and packages
Posters / Brochures and Pop-Up / Newsletters
Poster
Six posters were produced throughout the PROSPERO project lifetime. These posters have been used for dissemination purposes, as well as to reinforce the PROSPERO brand at industry events, dissemination events, as well as at PROSPERO internal meetings.
The six posters are:
• Main Project Poster (August 2014)
• Aeordays System Poster (September 2015)
• Aerodays Network Poster (September 2015)
• Main Project Poster Updated (October 2015)
• Network Poster (October 2015)
• System Poster (October 2015)
Brochures
Two iterations of the PROSPERO brochure were created during the project. The brochures explain in simple terms, using a series of graphics, the key messages and models developing during the lifetime of PROSPERO. They outline the caliber of the research organisations that form the project’s consortium. The content for the brochure was created by Carr Communications in collaboration with Trinity College Dublin, the project’s coordinator. The brochure used similar graphics to those used in the project’s poster series to ensure the key research focus of PROSPERO was communicated. The design of the brochure is consistent with the poster series to enhance the awareness of the PROSPERO brand. The project brochure was an important dissemination tool to draw the attention and interest of aviation industry and academic audiences. The content in the brochure was quite technical and the key message is the added benefit PROSPERO will provide for those in the aviation sector. A PDF file of the brochure was uploaded to ProjectPlace, the internal communications site for the project. It was available for all project partners to download and print in advance of industry conferences and events.
Pop-Up stand
Carr Communication’s in-house designer created a pop-up stand for the project in January 2015. A pop-up stand is an important brand awareness and identification tool for events and conferences. It assists in the promotion of projects among key audiences, specifically industry and academia. The design of the pop-up stand complemented the colour palette and style of the PROSPERO poster series and brochure to ensure consistency in the project’s brand. The pop-up stand was used at a number of key events during the lifetime of PROSPERO including the European Parliament event in Brussels on 3 February 2015 and the Aerodays 2015 conferences in London on 20-23 October.
For further information on visual materials, please refer to D7.19 and D7.22.
Newsletters
Two issues of the PROSPERO e-newsletter have been released. The most recent edition was released in August 2015. The second PROSPERO e-newsletter featured an article by Siobhan Corrigan, KTH and Mark Sujan along with an article on "Performance Management in a Regional Airport", focusing on Abruzzo Airport, co-written by Diana Del Sordo, M.Chiara Leva and Fabio Mattei. More information is available at this link: http://www.prosperofp7.eu/news/32-prospero-e-newsletter-issue-2
The first PROSPERO e-newsletter was released in July 2014. It featured articles by partners on The PROSERO Concept, The PROSPERO System, Integrated data and model driven approaches to risk assessment in PROSPERO, Data science and PROSPERO, and Validation in PROPERO. Please see a link to newsletter one: http://www.prosperofp7.eu/news/23-prospero-e-newsletter-issue-1
PROSPERO partners have were actively engaged in drafting content for the newsletter and in circulating it amongst their networks. The two PROSPERO
e-newsletters have enjoyed a combined estimated online readership of over 300.
Conference and Journal Articles
We created an initial list of target journals (with impact factors), as set out in D7.11. These included:
• Aviation Safety Letter
• Aviation, Space and Environmental Medicine
• Journal of Air transport management
• Progress in Aerospace Sciences
• Aerospace Science and Technology
• International Journal of Aviation Management
• Journal of Airport Management (already approached – Summer ‘14)
• International Journal of Aviation Psychology
• Journal of Cognition, Technology & Work
• Safety Science
• Journal of Risk and Reliability
The Journal of Airport Management requested the PROSOPERO project to submit a paper, which was published in September 2014.
Conferences / Workshops
We started by compiling a list of aviation safety-related conferences, which we included on the PROSPERO website under ‘Upcoming Events’. As with the target journals, the PROSPERO partners prioritised the events to target, according to relevance. Please see D7.11 Academic Dissemination for details on speaking opportunities that have been secured at major conferences, as well as information on University Courses and Theses.
PROSPERO has submitted papers at the following conferences:
Sujan, M.A. Frau, N., & Mc Donald, N (2015). Towards a Realist Validation of an Aviation System Operational Concept – Preliminary findings from the PROSPSERO FP7 project. ESREL Conference, 7-10 September 2015, Zurich, Switzerland
Corrigan, S, & Ledin, A. (2015). Building Bridges for Working Together: Collaboration in Action: PROSPERO Work-Shop. ACI Airport Leadership & Change Summit, Istanbul 8-10 December
Baranzini, D., and Zanin, M. (2015). Risk Prediction & Risk Intelligence in Aviation – the next generation of aviation risk concepts from PROSPERO FP7 Project. ESREL 2015 - 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference.
Corrigan, S., Mc Donald, N., Baranzini, D., and Ulfvengren, P. (2015) Managing the Risk of Change: A New Approach. ESREL 2015 - 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference.
Corrigan, S., Mc Donald, N., and Baranzini, D (2014). Managing the Risk of Change. 31st EAAP Conference, Malta.
Stogsdill, M., Ulfvengren, P., Baranzini, D., Corrigan S., and McDonald, N. (2014). Sharing is Caring: A Discussion for Combining Risk Information. In Human Factors In Organizational Design And Management – XI. Nordic Ergonomics Society Annual Conference – O. Broberg, N. Fallentin, P. Hasle, P.I. Jensen, A. Kabel, M.E. Larsen, T. Weller (Editors).
PROSPERO also presented at AERODAYS in October in 2105, and at ACI Technical Ops in Edinburgh in September 2015.
Media Implementation Plan
At the beginning of PROSPERO’s lifetime, we had initially aimed our media strategy at general audiences and at mass media. Based on this, we developed a media relations implementation plan for the PROSPERO project (M18-M36), based on key audiences to target, and dissemination activity across the media channels available, such as:
• National print media
• National broadcast media (TV and radio)
• Regional print media
• Regional broadcast media (TV and radio)
• Specialist publications – aviation
• Scientific publications / journals
• EU dissemination resources
• Online media / blogs
The first step in the media relations implementation plan was to create a Europe-wide circulation list of key media. In order to do this, we set up a series of meetings with the communications managers of partner organisations in different countries. This allowed us to utilise existing media relationships and key contacts across the project.
Project partners have also cooperated with us to translate press releases in to their own languages, and circulate them through their companies’ communications offices, and among their specialist media contacts.
As mentioned above media relations were subsequently targeted at specialist media to reflect the specialist audiences interested in the PROSPERO concept. An updated media contact list is included as an Appendix to D7.22.
Press releases were issued for:
-the European Parliament event in February 2015
-to mark the conclusion of the project and to communicate its main achievements and findings.
These press releases were sent to the specialist audiences referred to above.
Issuing of the final project press release was postponed due to the Russian airplane crash over Egypt in November 2015. Once this event had dropped from the news cycle, the final press release was issued in a variety of PROSPERO partner countries, thanks to the cooperation of project partners. The press release enjoyed good pick-up in Italy, and was published in the newsletter of the European Commission Representation in Ireland.
For further information on media activities, please refer to D7.19.
PROSPERO Dissemination Events
a) European Parliament Event February 2015
PROSPERO organized a dissemination event in the European Parliament in February 2015. The event was hosted by MEP Seán Kelly (EPP) and aimed to communicate key PROSPERO results to date to influential stakeholders, policy makers and industry leaders. MEP Kelly is a full member of the European Parliament Industry and Research Committee (ITRE) and therefore provided an invaluable audience for PROSPERO. Invitees included MEPs on relevant European Parliament committees such as Industry and Research (ITRE) and Transport (TRAN), key European Commission officials including the Project Officer and representatives of DG Research and Transport, and officials from key European organisations such as Eurocontrol and SESAR JU.
The event was moderated by MEP Marian-Jean Marinescu. MEP Marinescu is a full member of the European Parliament Committee on Transport and Tourism, and is a substitute member of the ITRE committee. He has delivered speeches in European Parliament Plenary sessions on civil aviation and has acted as rapporteur on European Parliament reports on the implementation of the SESAR JU budget.
http://www.eppgroup.eu/mep/Marian-Jean-MARINESCU
The event attracted participants from different European airports, from research institutes, national aviation authorities, European Parliament groups and IATA, EU Single Sky and ACI Europe. The final attendance ensured that PROSPERO results to date, and the benefits of the project were brought to an influential and engaged audience.
Please see link of summary video recorded at the PROSPERO EP event:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjJcGJ-AbTA
b) PROSPERO EASA workshop, June 2015
On the 30th of June 2015, PROSPERO partners met with the EU’s aviation regulator, EASA in Cologne, to discuss the tangible benefits of the PROSPERO system for the EU’s aviation industry.
Partners from PROSPERO and officials from EASA had a very constructive meeting to discuss the outcomes and exploitable benefits of the PROSPERO project in terms of improving aviation safety and regulation within the EU. EASA was complimentary about the significant work undertaken by PROSPERO in order to develop an all-inclusive predictive and safety forecasting system for industry and end users.
Prospero project coordinator, Trinity College Dublin, presented a high level overview of the PROSPERO system which addressed:
• Reducing the risk of emergent factors in change
• Evolution of safety management from reactive to predictive
• Key case studies of the PROSPERO system
Officials from EASA provided updates to PROSPERO partners in specific areas such as:
• Mandatory and voluntary reporting
• SMS
• Risk assessment
• Performance of the whole Air Transport System
PROSPERO and EASA partners agreed that there is a shift towards considering regulation as part of the global SMS. Officials from EASA expressed their support for the future commercialisation of the PROSPERO system as the Reporting Directive encourages more voluntary reporting, and the PROSPERO system can deliver a streamlined system for reporting on risk factors and patterns which would benefit airlines and traffic controllers.
c) Final PROSPERO Dissemination Event, October 2105
PROSPERO hosted their final dissemination event with a blended approach of on-site as well as on-line. The Dublin based partners gathered in a Dublin conference centre, while other participants joined the event through a live weblink. This event addressed the benefits and results of the project and also outlined the future for the project results.
Participants were from EASA, European Commission, SESAR, civil defense organisations, and a number of airlines, airports and private sector companies
Potential Impact:
In the PROSPERO project Description of Work, a comprehensive list of the dissemination and exploitation objectives was agreed. In summary, to:
• Keep the entire project focused on projected industry needs
• Review how well PROSPERO addressed those needs
• Define and implement an integrated strategy for impact and dissemination (capturing project outputs and how to communicate and exploit them within target audiences in industry, research communities, wider aviation community and key institutional stakeholders)
• Establish an Advisory Board
• Provide regular, active, real-time engagement and information about the project and its results to target audiences
• Establish links with international research networks and ongoing EU and national projects on topics related to safety in particular where standardisation issues are considered
• Promote the results and benefits of the project
• Make the results and benefits of the developed outputs attractive and known to industry, by focusing on the exploitation and impact of the research. (In the later months of the PROSPERO project, as results became available, it became clear that the PROSPERO concept was of interest to more specialist audiences, rather than generalist and mass media, as initially thought earlier in the project. For this reason, media relations were subsequently targeted at specialist media including aviation, technology, business and EU specialists.)
Significant progress was made across each of these objectives, as outlined in WP7 deliverables, most recently - D7.19 Dissemination and Exploitation Strategy (review) (M36) and D7.22 Dissemination Report (review) (M36).
The Dissemination and Learning Framework was developed during the first year of the project. This provided an overview on all dissemination efforts and priorities across the project under the following headings:
• Industry needs
• Key messages – benefits of the PROSPERO system
• Target audiences
• Dissemination channels and activities – internal learning and collaboration
• Dissemination channels – external
• Dissemination activities
We identified the most appropriate channels to reach the key target audiences for PROSPERO. We include a brief summary of some of the main achievements under dissemination channels. For a more detailed description, please refer to D7.22.
Website
• The PROSPERO website and online dissemination have been an important element of engagement with PROSPERO key target audiences.
• The PROSPERO website (www.prosperofp7.eu) went live in on 12th December 2012, within six weeks of the project start date.
• Google Analytics reported that the project website www.prosperofp7.eu had received 1,022 visits up to 21 April 2014, divided evenly between new and returning visitors.
• The project website had received over 3,000 visitors up to October 2015. Of these visitors, over one quarter were return visitors while almost 75 percent were new visitors.
Social Media
Twitter has proven to be a very successful dissemination channel for the project:
• We have written almost 700 Tweets, are Following 1,332 stakeholders in the aviation and related industries; and we have attracted 286 Followers.
• Twitter analytic reports demonstrate the high levels of engagement. In one particular week the PROSPERO profile was viewed 342 times.
• During the lifetime of the project we continually engaged with the PROSPERO network, utilising hashtags and becoming involved in conversations.
Videos & Digital Media
A dedicated, PROSPERO-branded YouTube channel was set up to present the project videos. The videos were also made available on the PROSPERO website’s video gallery section.
We have produced a series of videos to disseminate results and benefits of the project in an easy-to-understand way:
• An introduction to the PROSPERO Project by the project coordinator, Professor Nick McDonald from Trinity College, Dublin. (Filmed July 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLVSV2XNtBw
• An introductory overview to the project featuring representatives from some of the project partner organisations. (Filmed July 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lkm2uaxpko
• A mid-project overview by project coordinator, Professor Nick McDonald. (Filmed December 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiCiQuy56kE
• A mid-project assessment of progress featuring representatives from some of the project partner organisations. (Filmed December 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkvLTWJCz4k
Additionally, we produced an internal video to capture an interactive workshop held at the Dublin meeting in February 2014. Although not for public use, it has been shown to all of the partners.
A number of videos of interviews with Advisory Board members, were filmed at the Rome meeting in April 2014. The members were asked about the potential of the PROSPERO project and how it meets industry needs. Feedback from all participants was very positive.
The videos are now available on YouTube at the below links. They have had 90 views overall.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaVSciq5gbI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8P3HXFr3yU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izsauyGqWh0
An animation video was produced to explain the PROSPERO concept at the European Parliament event in February 2015. This video was very well received at the event, and was uploaded to YouTube. Up until the 4th of November 2105, it had achieved 190 views on YouTube.
The video is available to view on YouTube at the following link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebBaVEwPHIE
Videos have also been used under Dissemination Channels and Activities for Internal Learning and Collaboration, such as:
a. Webinars which have been recorded and uploaded to the website
b. Videos used during training sessions and packages
Posters / Brochures and Pop-Up / Newsletters
Poster
Six posters were produced throughout the PROSPERO project lifetime. These posters have been used for dissemination purposes, as well as to reinforce the PROSPERO brand at industry events, dissemination events, as well as at PROSPERO internal meetings.
The six posters are:
• Main Project Poster (August 2014)
• Aeordays System Poster (September 2015)
• Aerodays Network Poster (September 2015)
• Main Project Poster Updated (October 2015)
• Network Poster (October 2015)
• System Poster (October 2015)
Brochures
Two iterations of the PROSPERO brochure were created during the project. The brochures explain in simple terms, using a series of graphics, the key messages and models developing during the lifetime of PROSPERO. They outline the caliber of the research organisations that form the project’s consortium. The content for the brochure was created by Carr Communications in collaboration with Trinity College Dublin, the project’s coordinator. The brochure used similar graphics to those used in the project’s poster series to ensure the key research focus of PROSPERO was communicated. The design of the brochure is consistent with the poster series to enhance the awareness of the PROSPERO brand. The project brochure was an important dissemination tool to draw the attention and interest of aviation industry and academic audiences. The content in the brochure was quite technical and the key message is the added benefit PROSPERO will provide for those in the aviation sector. A PDF file of the brochure was uploaded to ProjectPlace, the internal communications site for the project. It was available for all project partners to download and print in advance of industry conferences and events.
Pop-Up stand
Carr Communication’s in-house designer created a pop-up stand for the project in January 2015. A pop-up stand is an important brand awareness and identification tool for events and conferences. It assists in the promotion of projects among key audiences, specifically industry and academia. The design of the pop-up stand complemented the colour palette and style of the PROSPERO poster series and brochure to ensure consistency in the project’s brand. The pop-up stand was used at a number of key events during the lifetime of PROSPERO including the European Parliament event in Brussels on 3 February 2015 and the Aerodays 2015 conferences in London on 20-23 October.
For further information on visual materials, please refer to D7.19 and D7.22.
Newsletters
Two issues of the PROSPERO e-newsletter have been released. The most recent edition was released in August 2015. The second PROSPERO e-newsletter featured an article by Siobhan Corrigan, KTH and Mark Sujan along with an article on "Performance Management in a Regional Airport", focusing on Abruzzo Airport, co-written by Diana Del Sordo, M.Chiara Leva and Fabio Mattei. More information is available at this link: http://www.prosperofp7.eu/news/32-prospero-e-newsletter-issue-2
The first PROSPERO e-newsletter was released in July 2014. It featured articles by partners on The PROSERO Concept, The PROSPERO System, Integrated data and model driven approaches to risk assessment in PROSPERO, Data science and PROSPERO, and Validation in PROPERO. Please see a link to newsletter one: http://www.prosperofp7.eu/news/23-prospero-e-newsletter-issue-1
PROSPERO partners have were actively engaged in drafting content for the newsletter and in circulating it amongst their networks. The two PROSPERO
e-newsletters have enjoyed a combined estimated online readership of over 300.
Conference and Journal Articles
We created an initial list of target journals (with impact factors), as set out in D7.11. These included:
• Aviation Safety Letter
• Aviation, Space and Environmental Medicine
• Journal of Air transport management
• Progress in Aerospace Sciences
• Aerospace Science and Technology
• International Journal of Aviation Management
• Journal of Airport Management (already approached – Summer ‘14)
• International Journal of Aviation Psychology
• Journal of Cognition, Technology & Work
• Safety Science
• Journal of Risk and Reliability
The Journal of Airport Management requested the PROSOPERO project to submit a paper, which was published in September 2014.
Conferences / Workshops
We started by compiling a list of aviation safety-related conferences, which we included on the PROSPERO website under ‘Upcoming Events’. As with the target journals, the PROSPERO partners prioritised the events to target, according to relevance. Please see D7.11 Academic Dissemination for details on speaking opportunities that have been secured at major conferences, as well as information on University Courses and Theses.
PROSPERO has submitted papers at the following conferences:
Sujan, M.A. Frau, N., & Mc Donald, N (2015). Towards a Realist Validation of an Aviation System Operational Concept – Preliminary findings from the PROSPSERO FP7 project. ESREL Conference, 7-10 September 2015, Zurich, Switzerland
Corrigan, S, & Ledin, A. (2015). Building Bridges for Working Together: Collaboration in Action: PROSPERO Work-Shop. ACI Airport Leadership & Change Summit, Istanbul 8-10 December
Baranzini, D., and Zanin, M. (2015). Risk Prediction & Risk Intelligence in Aviation – the next generation of aviation risk concepts from PROSPERO FP7 Project. ESREL 2015 - 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference.
Corrigan, S., Mc Donald, N., Baranzini, D., and Ulfvengren, P. (2015) Managing the Risk of Change: A New Approach. ESREL 2015 - 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference.
Corrigan, S., Mc Donald, N., and Baranzini, D (2014). Managing the Risk of Change. 31st EAAP Conference, Malta.
Stogsdill, M., Ulfvengren, P., Baranzini, D., Corrigan S., and McDonald, N. (2014). Sharing is Caring: A Discussion for Combining Risk Information. In Human Factors In Organizational Design And Management – XI. Nordic Ergonomics Society Annual Conference – O. Broberg, N. Fallentin, P. Hasle, P.I. Jensen, A. Kabel, M.E. Larsen, T. Weller (Editors).
PROSPERO also presented at AERODAYS in October in 2105, and at ACI Technical Ops in Edinburgh in September 2015.
Media Implementation Plan
At the beginning of PROSPERO’s lifetime, we had initially aimed our media strategy at general audiences and at mass media. Based on this, we developed a media relations implementation plan for the PROSPERO project (M18-M36), based on key audiences to target, and dissemination activity across the media channels available, such as:
• National print media
• National broadcast media (TV and radio)
• Regional print media
• Regional broadcast media (TV and radio)
• Specialist publications – aviation
• Scientific publications / journals
• EU dissemination resources
• Online media / blogs
The first step in the media relations implementation plan was to create a Europe-wide circulation list of key media. In order to do this, we set up a series of meetings with the communications managers of partner organisations in different countries. This allowed us to utilise existing media relationships and key contacts across the project.
Project partners have also cooperated with us to translate press releases in to their own languages, and circulate them through their companies’ communications offices, and among their specialist media contacts.
As mentioned above media relations were subsequently targeted at specialist media to reflect the specialist audiences interested in the PROSPERO concept. An updated media contact list is included as an Appendix to D7.22.
Press releases were issued for:
-the European Parliament event in February 2015
-to mark the conclusion of the project and to communicate its main achievements and findings.
These press releases were sent to the specialist audiences referred to above.
Issuing of the final project press release was postponed due to the Russian airplane crash over Egypt in November 2015. Once this event had dropped from the news cycle, the final press release was issued in a variety of PROSPERO partner countries, thanks to the cooperation of project partners. The press release enjoyed good pick-up in Italy, and was published in the newsletter of the European Commission Representation in Ireland.
For further information on media activities, please refer to D7.19.
PROSPERO Dissemination Events
a) European Parliament Event February 2015
PROSPERO organized a dissemination event in the European Parliament in February 2015. The event was hosted by MEP Seán Kelly (EPP) and aimed to communicate key PROSPERO results to date to influential stakeholders, policy makers and industry leaders. MEP Kelly is a full member of the European Parliament Industry and Research Committee (ITRE) and therefore provided an invaluable audience for PROSPERO. Invitees included MEPs on relevant European Parliament committees such as Industry and Research (ITRE) and Transport (TRAN), key European Commission officials including the Project Officer and representatives of DG Research and Transport, and officials from key European organisations such as Eurocontrol and SESAR JU.
The event was moderated by MEP Marian-Jean Marinescu. MEP Marinescu is a full member of the European Parliament Committee on Transport and Tourism, and is a substitute member of the ITRE committee. He has delivered speeches in European Parliament Plenary sessions on civil aviation and has acted as rapporteur on European Parliament reports on the implementation of the SESAR JU budget.
http://www.eppgroup.eu/mep/Marian-Jean-MARINESCU
The event attracted participants from different European airports, from research institutes, national aviation authorities, European Parliament groups and IATA, EU Single Sky and ACI Europe. The final attendance ensured that PROSPERO results to date, and the benefits of the project were brought to an influential and engaged audience.
Please see link of summary video recorded at the PROSPERO EP event:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjJcGJ-AbTA
Figure 1: Photograph from PROSPERO EP event
b) PROSPERO EASA workshop, June 2015
On the 30th of June 2015, PROSPERO partners met with the EU’s aviation regulator, EASA in Cologne, to discuss the tangible benefits of the PROSPERO system for the EU’s aviation industry.
Partners from PROSPERO and officials from EASA had a very constructive meeting to discuss the outcomes and exploitable benefits of the PROSPERO project in terms of improving aviation safety and regulation within the EU. EASA was complimentary about the significant work undertaken by PROSPERO in order to develop an all-inclusive predictive and safety forecasting system for industry and end users.
Prospero project coordinator, Trinity College Dublin, presented a high level overview of the PROSPERO system which addressed:
• Reducing the risk of emergent factors in change
• Evolution of safety management from reactive to predictive
• Key case studies of the PROSPERO system
Officials from EASA provided updates to PROSPERO partners in specific areas such as:
• Mandatory and voluntary reporting
• SMS
• Risk assessment
• Performance of the whole Air Transport System
PROSPERO and EASA partners agreed that there is a shift towards considering regulation as part of the global SMS. Officials from EASA expressed their support for the future commercialisation of the PROSPERO system as the Reporting Directive encourages more voluntary reporting, and the PROSPERO system can deliver a streamlined system for reporting on risk factors and patterns which would benefit airlines and traffic controllers.
Figure 2: Participants at the PROSPERO EASA workshop, Cologne, June 2015
c) Final PROSPERO Dissemination Event, October 2105
PROSPERO hosted their final dissemination event with a blended approach of on-site as well as on-line. The Dublin based partners gathered in a Dublin conference centre, while other participants joined the event through a live weblink. This event addressed the benefits and results of the project and also outlined the future for the project results.
Participants were from EASA, European Commission, SESAR, civil defense organisations, and a number of airlines, airports and private sector companies
PROSPERO promises to deliver a new concept of safety management based on the concept of risk knowledge. Risk knowledge comes from large and diverse data sources accumulated along a process, analysed and fed back to the process owners. Its emphasis on the antecedents or precursors of risk identifies what needs to change to gain the maximum leverage in preventing and mitigating risk. It supports the management of change, through in-depth analysis, collaborative participation and monitoring progress; it creates accountability for the implementation of recommendations for change. Through sharing of selected data it enables the building of comprehensive system risk models in which shared risks can be effectively controlled and providing oversight over suppliers and sub-contractors. It is a bottom-up approach that empowers all participants from the operational sharp-end to strategic management, to monitor, manage and improve the risk profile for which they are responsible.
Immediate goals for PROSPERO in the period after the project, include the consolidation and further development of an integrated software system to serve flight operations, airport ground operations, aircraft maintenance. An ATM performance and risk concept should fully integrate with this, based on complexity metrics developed in the project. This will be collaboratively implemented in a network of operational users serviced by a multi-functional knowledge business. A wider interest group developing and disseminating these ideas in a learning community will be supported by the new Masters programme on Managing Risk and System Change in TCD.
PROSPERO fulfills the current SMS requirements for all aviation organisations to be proactive, systemic and performance focused. This approach will enable the development of an integrated Air Transport System (ATS) safety performance management concept that can fulfil the safety goals of Single European Sky for reference period 3 (commencing in 2020).
List of Websites:
Professor Nick Mc Donald, Project Co-ordinator, Centre for Innovative Human Systems (CIHS), School of Psychology, Trinity College Dublin.
Email: nick.mcdonald@tcd.ie Phone: 0035318961471
http://prosperofp7.eu/
