Objective Our society increasingly relies on numerical atmospheric models to predict extreme events such as intense storms or rare flow regime changes such as those leading to heat waves. Yet, how well these events can be reproduced with those models is currently unknown. In this project, we will make use of advances in the mathematics of stochastic differential equations to determine how the presence of delayed feedback influences the rates of rare transitions between flow regimesand the separation of nearby trajectories in geophysical fluid flows. Delayed feedbacks are an essential element of systems without a time scale separation, such as the atmosphere. This study is possible due to recent extensions of large deviation theory to systems with delay. We will also determine how approximations of dynamical systems influence the distributions of extreme events. Here we will use the theory of extreme values in dynamical systems that has been developed in the last few years and finite Markov approximation of the transfer operator. Together these results will greatly advance the understanding of how complex systems such as the Earth system can be simulated. Fields of science natural sciencesmathematicspure mathematicsmathematical analysisdifferential equationsnatural sciencesmathematicsapplied mathematicsdynamical systems Programme(s) FP7-PEOPLE - Specific programme "People" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Topic(s) FP7-PEOPLE-2013-IOF - Marie Curie Action: "International Outgoing Fellowships for Career Development" Call for proposal FP7-PEOPLE-2013-IOF See other projects for this call Funding Scheme MC-IOF - International Outgoing Fellowships (IOF) Coordinator THE UNIVERSITY OF READING Address Whiteknights campus whiteknights house RG6 6AH Reading United Kingdom See on map Region South East (England) Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire Berkshire Administrative Contact Mary Abdul (Mrs.) Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window EU contribution € 274 336,80 Participants (1) Sort alphabetically Sort by EU Contribution Expand all Collapse all UNIVERSITAET HAMBURG Participation ended Germany EU contribution € 0,00 Address Mittelweg 177 20148 Hamburg See on map Region Hamburg Hamburg Hamburg Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Administrative Contact Simone Ludwig (Ms.) Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window
