Objectif Our society increasingly relies on numerical atmospheric models to predict extreme events such as intense storms or rare flow regime changes such as those leading to heat waves. Yet, how well these events can be reproduced with those models is currently unknown. In this project, we will make use of advances in the mathematics of stochastic differential equations to determine how the presence of delayed feedback influences the rates of rare transitions between flow regimesand the separation of nearby trajectories in geophysical fluid flows. Delayed feedbacks are an essential element of systems without a time scale separation, such as the atmosphere. This study is possible due to recent extensions of large deviation theory to systems with delay. We will also determine how approximations of dynamical systems influence the distributions of extreme events. Here we will use the theory of extreme values in dynamical systems that has been developed in the last few years and finite Markov approximation of the transfer operator. Together these results will greatly advance the understanding of how complex systems such as the Earth system can be simulated. Champ scientifique sciences naturellesmathématiquesmathématiques puresanalyse mathématiqueéquations différentiellessciences naturellesmathématiquesmathématiques appliquéessystèmes dynamiques Programme(s) FP7-PEOPLE - Specific programme "People" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Thème(s) FP7-PEOPLE-2013-IOF - Marie Curie Action: "International Outgoing Fellowships for Career Development" Appel à propositions FP7-PEOPLE-2013-IOF Voir d’autres projets de cet appel Régime de financement MC-IOF - International Outgoing Fellowships (IOF) Coordinateur THE UNIVERSITY OF READING Adresse Whiteknights campus whiteknights house RG6 6AH Reading Royaume-Uni Voir sur la carte Région South East (England) Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire Berkshire Type d’activité Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Contact administratif Mary Abdul (Mrs.) Liens Contacter l’organisation Opens in new window Site web Opens in new window Contribution de l’UE Aucune donnée Participants (1) Trier par ordre alphabétique Trier par contribution de l’UE Tout développer Tout réduire UNIVERSITAET HAMBURG Participation terminée Allemagne Contribution de l’UE € 0,00 Adresse Mittelweg 177 20148 Hamburg Voir sur la carte Région Hamburg Hamburg Hamburg Type d’activité Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Contact administratif Simone Ludwig (Ms.) Liens Contacter l’organisation Opens in new window Site web Opens in new window Autres sources de financement Aucune donnée
