Ziel
LUMOCAP aims at delivering an operational tool for assessing land use changes and their impact on the rural landscape related to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The core of the system is a dynamic Cellular Automata based land use model enabling the user to enter policy options under a specific set of natural and socio-eomic ditions as external driving forces, to formulate potential land use scenarios, and to assess their impact on the quality of rural landscapes through the analysis of selected landscape indicators. It also enables identifying land use change caused by non sustainable agricultural systems. The end product is an open-ended, transparent, user-friendly PC based analytical system, operating at different temporal and embedded spatial scales enabling to input data, modify decisional rules and to generate, visualise and analyse spatial output interactively. As agriculture covers about half of the EU-territory, the CAP is a main driver determining land-use structure and landscape quality. It aims at ensuring adequate market prices and satisfactory income to farmers and at sustainable rural development, including preservation of landscapes through agri-environmental schemes. Increasingly CAP aims at maintaining agricultural activity in high nature value areas to avoid degradation of the associated landscapes and the abandonment of land. The LUMOCAP project directly tributes to an increased efficiency and rationality in meeting these objectives. The project focuses on the relations between the CAP and landscape changes and emphasizes the spatio-temporal dimension of the former. The land use model will be calibrated and its utility will be tested on historical data characterizing changes in the period 1990-2000 (ex-post). Next it will be run to asses policy development scenarios for the period 2000-2015 (ex-ante) by forecasting the future spatial distribution of land-use/cover and related landscape indicators.
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Aufforderung zur Vorschlagseinreichung
FP6-2003-SSP-3
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