Objective Climate change in the 21st century is predicted to push ecosystems across ecological thresholds, potentially resulting in abrupt ecosystem change into new and irreversible states. Ecological theory proposes that non-linear biotic responses are the result of a complex interplay of feedbacks, thresholds and interactions that operate over decades to thousands of years. As a result, standard ecological research methods are generally unable to quantify key ecological dynamics that are relevant for forecasting abrupt ecological change and there is a critical need to integrate long-term ecological data with process-based models. This will result in improved forecasting of climate-change impacts on ecosystems at both local- to global-scales. Such studies will play a critical role in understanding the ‘intrinsic’ factors (e.g. climate-vegetation feedbacks) that can result in non-linear biotic responses to climate change.Sediments are natural data-loggers that preserve the remains of plants and animals over thousands of years. They provide a unique resource for answering current high priority questions related to predicting future ecosystem change because they are the only way to obtain empirical information relevant for understanding long-term ecological dynamics and functioning. In this project I will develop an interdisciplinary framework that integrates state-of-the-art process-based modelling with new high-quality palaeoecological information to quantify the factors that result in non-linear responses to climate change. I will apply the framework to a major vegetation transition in the past: the sclerophyll-rainforest transition in north-east Australia that occurred between 10 and 7 thousand years ago. I will develop this case study for proof-of-concept of a new interdisciplinary framework. This will result in a greater understanding of non-linear biotic responses to climate change. Fields of science natural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystemsnatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes Keywords Dynamic Vegetation Modelling Ecological Thresholds Climate Change Leaf-wax isotope ratios Water-stress Rainforest Holocene Atherton Tableland Bayesian Statistics Programme(s) H2020-EU.1.3. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Main Programme H2020-EU.1.3.2. - Nurturing excellence by means of cross-border and cross-sector mobility Topic(s) MSCA-IF-2014-EF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF-EF) Call for proposal H2020-MSCA-IF-2014 See other projects for this call Funding Scheme MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF) Coordinator SENCKENBERG GESELLSCHAFT FUR NATURFORSCHUNG Net EU contribution € 159 460,80 Address SENCKENBERGANLAGE 25 60325 Frankfurt Germany See on map Region Hessen Darmstadt Frankfurt am Main, Kreisfreie Stadt Activity type Other Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Total cost € 159 460,80
