Quantifying Abrupt Biotic Responses to Palaeoclimate Change

Información del proyecto

ABRUPT

Identificador del acuerdo de subvención: 657876

DOI

10.3030/657876

Proyecto finalizado el 23 Febrero 2016

Fecha de la firma de la CE 15 Abril 2015

Fecha de inicio 11 Abril 2016

Fecha de finalización 10 Abril 2018

Financiado con arreglo a

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Coste total

€ 159 460,80

Aportación de la UE

€ 159 460,80

Coordinado por

SENCKENBERG GESELLSCHAFT FUR NATURFORSCHUNG
Germany

Objetivo

Climate change in the 21st century is predicted to push ecosystems across ecological thresholds, potentially resulting in abrupt ecosystem change into new and irreversible states. Ecological theory proposes that non-linear biotic responses are the result of a complex interplay of feedbacks, thresholds and interactions that operate over decades to thousands of years. As a result, standard ecological research methods are generally unable to quantify key ecological dynamics that are relevant for forecasting abrupt ecological change and there is a critical need to integrate long-term ecological data with process-based models. This will result in improved forecasting of climate-change impacts on ecosystems at both local- to global-scales. Such studies will play a critical role in understanding the ‘intrinsic’ factors (e.g. climate-vegetation feedbacks) that can result in non-linear biotic responses to climate change.
Sediments are natural data-loggers that preserve the remains of plants and animals over thousands of years. They provide a unique resource for answering current high priority questions related to predicting future ecosystem change because they are the only way to obtain empirical information relevant for understanding long-term ecological dynamics and functioning. In this project I will develop an interdisciplinary framework that integrates state-of-the-art process-based modelling with new high-quality palaeoecological information to quantify the factors that result in non-linear responses to climate change. I will apply the framework to a major vegetation transition in the past: the sclerophyll-rainforest transition in north-east Australia that occurred between 10 and 7 thousand years ago. I will develop this case study for proof-of-concept of a new interdisciplinary framework. This will result in a greater understanding of non-linear biotic responses to climate change.

Ámbito científico (EuroSciVoc)

• ciencias naturales › ciencias biológicas › ecología › ecosistemas
• ciencias naturales › ciencias de la tierra y ciencias ambientales conexas › ciencias de la atmósfera › climatología › cambios climáticos

Palabras clave

• Dynamic Vegetation Modelling
• Ecological Thresholds
• Climate Change
• Leaf-wax isotope ratios
• Water-stress
• Rainforest
• Holocene
• Atherton Tableland
• Bayesian Statistics

Programa(s)

• H2020-EU.1.3. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions PROGRAMA PRINCIPAL
  
• H2020-EU.1.3.2. - Nurturing excellence by means of cross-border and cross-sector mobility
  

Tema(s)

• MSCA-IF-2014-EF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF-EF)
  

Régimen de financiación

MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)

Convocatoria de propuestas

H2020-MSCA-IF-2014

Coordinador

SENCKENBERG GESELLSCHAFT FUR NATURFORSCHUNG

• Aportación neta de la UEn: € 159 460,80
• Dirección: SENCKENBERGANLAGE 25 ; 60325 Frankfurt ; Alemania
• Región: Hessen › Darmstadt › Frankfurt am Main, Kreisfreie Stadt
• Tipo de actividad: Other
• Coste total: € 159 460,80