Obiettivo
The purpose of this project is to develop a partial equilibrium model to provide better simulations of the global effect of agriculture policy, trade reform and macroeomic factors on arable crops and oilseeds markets. The proposal will develop medium term projections for the world cereals and oilseeds sector and measure the effects of alternative agricultural domestic and trade policies on arable crops and oilseeds markets. For each country modelled, the model will generate the main domestic market variables: supply, demand, domestic prices and trade estimates. Furthermore, as the impact of agricultural policies depends crucially on the level of world prices, the model will analyse the price formation mechanism in world cereals and oilseeds markets.The proposed model enhancement will allow a more comprehensive representation of policy and its effect on the sectors modelled. This proposal will tribute to a greater understanding of the way policy really operates by facilitating complementatry studies which will recognise that markets work imperfectly and which will account explicitly for the effect which farmers' risk attitudes can have on the impact of policy.The model will be used to simulate the effetcs of policy scenarios which will be designed by the project partnership in junction with the EU commission. These scenarios will include changes in agriculture and trade policies and external ditions such as exchange rates or macroeomic shocks. Results will show the effects on countries which are important for the arable crops and oilseeds markets. Benefits will accrue to the EU commission, policy makers, farmers, agri-food businesses and the academic community through improvement in our understanding of the effect of policies and through greater availability of information for decision making in the face of increased policies reform pressures. Strong emphasis will be placed on the dissemination of results to interested parties.
Campo scientifico
Parole chiave
Invito a presentare proposte
FP6-2003-SSP-3
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