Research on Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Trade

Informazioni relative al progetto

MACROTRADE

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: 681664

DOI

10.3030/681664

Progetto chiuso

Data della firma CE 13 Giugno 2016

Data di avvio 1 Ottobre 2016

Data di completamento 30 Settembre 2023

Finanziato da

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Costo totale

€ 1 257 242,51

Contributo UE

€ 1 257 242,51

Coordinato da

LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
United Kingdom

Periodic Reporting for period 5 - MACROTRADE (Research on Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Trade)

Periodo di rendicontazione: 2022-10-01 al 2023-09-30

Sintesi del contesto e degli obiettivi generali del progetto

The research is divided into three strands whose main goals are to i) study macroeconomic fluctuations, ii) identify the mechanisms that drive and propagate these fluctuations, and iii) use the empirical findings to inform and formulate models that can be used for quantitative policy and positive analysis

Lavoro eseguito dall’inizio del progetto fino alla fine del periodo coperto dalla relazione e principali risultati finora ottenuti

My research proposal was organised in three strands. I first list below the outcomes so far and then expand on each of them.

Strand 1: The results of this research are summarised in “History Dependence in Housing Markets”, joint with Phillippe Bracke. Our study has been punlished by the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
It can be downloaded from: http://personal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/history.pdf

Strand 2: This strands has produced two main papers. The first is “The Transmission of Monetary Policy Through Redistributions and Durables Purchases”, joint with Vincent Sterk. This has been published in the Journal of Monetary Economics. It can be downloaded from
http://personal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/NNKM.pdf
The second paper is “Optimal Inflation and the Phillips Curve”, joint with Michael McLeay, published in the NBER Macroeconomics Annual.:
http://personal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/inflation1.pdf This has served as input in the conference on the Revaluation of the Fed, held in Chicago, June 2-3.

Strand 3: This strands has produced five papers so far: “Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies,” joint with Thomas Drechsel. This has been published in the Journal of International Economics. http://personal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/commodity.pdf
As a natural follow up on this, I have now produced a new paper on Brexit. The working version can be found here: https://personal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/brexit.pdf We have received an invitation to revise and resubmit from the Review of Economic Studies and we have been working on the revision.
A third paper, still in progress is “Piggy Back Exporting and the Gains from Trade in Developing Economies,” joint with Swati Dhingra. We are still working on it, as we have received reports from referees.
A spinoff idea that came off from doing this work was published in a paper that dealt with the question of population in developing countries, as I was concerned about controlling for long term trends in my study of terms of trend fluctuations. The paper dealt with a drastic change in population growth, and discusses a key factor behind it that had been neglected in the literature. “The Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model,” joint with Tiloka DeSilva. Published in The American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. It can be downloaded from http://personal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/fertility2.pdf

Progressi oltre lo stato dell’arte e potenziale impatto previsto (incluso l’impatto socioeconomico e le implicazioni sociali più ampie del progetto fino ad ora)

“Optimal Inflation and The Phillips Curve” is possibly the most important of all these papers in terms of having an influence on the policy sphere. As mentioned above, it has been used to push back on the attach on the policy framework currently used by central banks. It has generated a lot of interest in the academic and policy sphere.

Awards:
I have been appointed Fellow of the British Academy (2018), External Monetary Policy Committee Member, Bank of England (2017).
I have been elected Vice-President European Economic Association (2019) and will become President in 2020.

I have been given the Carl Menger Prize on Monetary Macroeconomics 2018

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