The work carried out in all the project duration has involved:
1) Identify key physical variables and parameters. It started at the beginning of the project with Workpackage 2 results, and has been improved until the end, where new scenarios and model capabilities allowed a more in deep analysis of variables. The methodology started with a first approach of extracting the necessary information from previous studies and modelling works. These studies have been complemented with the scenarios design and hypotheses used to define them. In parallel, models have been implemented and compared with other pre-existing tools/models. All this work conducts finally to the definition of necessary cross-model comparison parameter/variable values to frame the model results in a valid range compared with the state-of-the art models and knowledge. Producing thus a novel and very useful tool (pymedeas) to perform energy transition analysis based on biophysical limits and climate change impacts on the socio-economy.
2) Highlight emerging challenges for the implementation of a transition to a low-carbon economy. The results of the project show how important is the evolution of the desired economic activity. Its impacts on the transition are twofold: first the GDP evolution is strongly linked to GHG emissions, secondly, the renewable transition needs to be fuelled by fossil fuels (at least in his initial stages) so the pathway to reach the transition is key to achieve the final aim in 2050 with minimum socio-economic damages. Thus, the pace of the transition, particularly concerning the rate of RES deployment, the energy carrier shift (fuel shift) and evolution of the energy intensities have capital importance in the simulations on the GHG emissions. Another important factor is the new technologies role in the transition, so they need to be supported strongly to be ready as soon as possible to enhance the transition.
3) Suggest strategies to face such challenges when drafting the roadmap to a European future socio-economic transition to a sustainable energy system. This has been achieved through the White Book of policy guidelines and also with the analysis conducted in Workpackage 6 and Workpackage 7. The MEDEAS White Book highlights the relevance of the issues addressed in the areas of electricity grid upgrade, transport electrification, the role of natural gas, energy efficiency, energy costs, financing cross-border energy infrastructure, price regulation, raw materials and re-cycling, environmental impacts, social and behavioural adaptations, economic development and climate change adaptation. On this basis, MEDEAS makes policy recommendations which are in line with many EU strategies, visions and goals, in particular the “Clean Planet For All Strategy” and “EU Green Deal”.
