The context of the TBO-Met project can be described as follows. Uncertainty is a key factor that affects the achievement of the high-level goal set for the Single European Sky of increasing the capacity of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system while maintaining high safety standards and improving the overall performance, and in particular the weather uncertainty, which is one of the main sources of uncertainty that affect ATM. Therefore, to achieve that goal, the uncertainty levels in ATM have to be reduced and new strategies to deal with the remaining uncertainty must be found.
In this project the problem of analysing and quantifying the effects of meteorological uncertainties in Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) has been addressed, focussing on two particular problems: 1) trajectory planning under meteorological uncertainties and 2) sector demand forecast under meteorological uncertainties, which correspond to two different scales: trajectory scale and sector scale. More especifically, three research topics have been addressed: 1) trajectory planning at pre-tactical level (mid-term planning) under meteorological uncertainties, 2) storm avoidance at tactical level (short-term planning and execution), and
3) sector demand analysis under meteorological uncertainties, both at pre-tactical and tactical levels. The weather information is obtained from Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) and Nowcasts, which provide two types of meteorological uncertainties: wind uncertainty and convective zones (including individual storm cells).
At the trajectory scale, the main objective has been to improve the predictability of aircraft trajectories when subject to weather uncertainty keeping acceptable levels of efficiency, both at the mid-term level (up to three hours before departure) and at the short-term level (during the flight). At the sector scale, the main objective has been to increase the accuracy of the prediction of sector demand when weather uncertainty is taken into account. To help in achieving these objectives, a survey among the stakeholders involved has been performed. The main result of the survey has been a first-hand expert description of current practice and future expectations, which has served as a valuable reference for the project activities.
The results obtained show that the specific objectives of TBO-Met have been fully achieved, namely:
1. The trade-off between predictability and efficiency can be quantified, considering wind uncertainty and convective risk at pre-tactical level, and the uncertain evolution of thunderstorms at tactical level.
2. The sector demand uncertainty can be measured, both, at pre-tactical and tactical levels, considering as sources of uncertainty wind and storm-cell location, respectively.
The importance of this project for society is linked to the benefits for the passengers and the different stakeholders expected from the outcome of the project.
