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The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Integrated Risk Management Decisions

Project description

DEENESFRITPL

The added value of seasonal climate forecasts for integrated risk management decisions

The core aim of the EU-funded SECLI-FIRM project is to demonstrate how the use of improved climate forecasts can help reduce risk as well as cost of decision-making processes, by assessing the impact of climate information on operational planning and portfolio management. The project will develop a purpose-built comprehensive data set with more than 10 independent seasonal forecast systems on a single platform. It also intends to advance online visualisation tools in order to try characterise end-user requirements and associated decision-making issues for a wide range of stakeholders. Outcomes will ultimately optimise climate prediction performance, quantify the value adding of climate forecasts to decision-making, and help embed seasonal forecasts in industry's decision processes.

Objective

The central objective of SECLI-FIRM is to demonstrate how the use of improved climate forecasts, out to several months ahead, can add practical and economic value to decision-making processes and outcomes, primarily in the energy sector, but also in the water sector. Specifically for the energy sector, SECLI-CLIM will assess the impact on operational planning and portfolio management, such as hedging and asset optimization, thus enabling quantification of the value-add provided by seasonal forecasts which have been calibrated, evaluated and tailored for each specific application. Improvements in management decisions will ultimately lead to an improved supply-demand balance and therefore to a more efficient energy system, particularly with respect to renewable energy, with corresponding benefits for climate change mitigation.

A simple, but effective, methodology will be used to assess value added. A control case will only utilise climatological conditions based on historical averaged values – currently the most common approach – while a test case will also consider individually optimised and tailored state-of-the-art probabilistic seasonal forecasts. This will be done for nine case studies for Europe and South America: recent seasons with anomalous/extreme climate conditions leading to problematic and quantifiable impacts for the energy and/or water industry. Crucially for success, the case studies will be co-designed by industrial and research partners.

These case studies will provide the basis for developing pilot climate services for a number of specific applications, allowing evaluation of the added value of near real-time information for decision making. Thus SECLI-FIRM will promote research advances in the optimization of seasonal forecasts for specific applications (e.g. by evaluating both local processes and large-scale teleconnections), as well as promoting the uptake of seasonal forecasts by industry and hence expansion of the climate services market.

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Keywords

Programme(s)

Topic(s)

Call for proposal

H2020-SC5-2016-2017

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Sub call

H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB

Funding Scheme

RIA - Research and Innovation action

Coordinator

UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA
Net EU contribution
€ 1 036 273,29
Address
Earlham road
NR4 7TJ Norwich
United Kingdom

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Region
East of England East Anglia Norwich and East Norfolk
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Other funding
€ 0,00

Participants (9)

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EC signature date 27 October 2017
Last update: 31 August 2023

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Permalink: https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/776868

European Union, 2023