Descripción del proyecto
El valor añadido de la previsión climática estacional para las decisiones de gestión integrada de riesgos
El objetivo principal del proyecto SECLI-FIRM, financiado con fondos europeos, es demostrar cómo el uso de previsiones climáticas mejoradas puede ayudar a reducir el riesgo y el coste de los procesos de adopción de decisiones, mediante la evaluación de la repercusión de la información climática en la planificación operativa y la gestión de carteras. El proyecto desarrollará un amplio conjunto de datos con más de diez sistemas independientes de previsión estacional en una única plataforma. También pretende avanzar en las herramientas de visualización en línea para tratar de definir los requisitos del usuario final y los problemas asociados a la hora de adoptar decisiones para una amplia gama de partes interesadas. En última instancia, los resultados optimizarán el rendimiento de la predicción climática, cuantificarán el valor añadido de las previsiones climáticas para la toma de decisiones y ayudarán a integrar las previsiones estacionales en los procesos de decisión de la industria.
Objetivo
The central objective of SECLI-FIRM is to demonstrate how the use of improved climate forecasts, out to several months ahead, can add practical and economic value to decision-making processes and outcomes, primarily in the energy sector, but also in the water sector. Specifically for the energy sector, SECLI-CLIM will assess the impact on operational planning and portfolio management, such as hedging and asset optimization, thus enabling quantification of the value-add provided by seasonal forecasts which have been calibrated, evaluated and tailored for each specific application. Improvements in management decisions will ultimately lead to an improved supply-demand balance and therefore to a more efficient energy system, particularly with respect to renewable energy, with corresponding benefits for climate change mitigation.
A simple, but effective, methodology will be used to assess value added. A control case will only utilise climatological conditions based on historical averaged values – currently the most common approach – while a test case will also consider individually optimised and tailored state-of-the-art probabilistic seasonal forecasts. This will be done for nine case studies for Europe and South America: recent seasons with anomalous/extreme climate conditions leading to problematic and quantifiable impacts for the energy and/or water industry. Crucially for success, the case studies will be co-designed by industrial and research partners.
These case studies will provide the basis for developing pilot climate services for a number of specific applications, allowing evaluation of the added value of near real-time information for decision making. Thus SECLI-FIRM will promote research advances in the optimization of seasonal forecasts for specific applications (e.g. by evaluating both local processes and large-scale teleconnections), as well as promoting the uptake of seasonal forecasts by industry and hence expansion of the climate services market.
Ámbito científico
- social sciencessociologygovernancecrisis management
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsrenewable energyhydroelectricity
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringnatural resources managementwater management
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
Convocatoria de propuestas
Consulte otros proyectos de esta convocatoriaConvocatoria de subcontratación
H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB
Régimen de financiación
RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinador
NR4 7TJ Norwich
Reino Unido