Projektbeschreibung
Der Mehrwert saisonaler Klimavorhersagen für integrierte Entscheidungen beim Risikomanagement
Das Kernziel des EU-finanzierten Projekts SECLI-FIRM ist es, zu zeigen, wie die Verwendung verbesserter Klimaprognosen dazu beitragen kann, das Risiko und die Kosten von Entscheidungsprozessen zu senken, indem die Auswirkungen von Klimainformationen auf die operative Planung und das Portfoliomanagement abgeschätzt werden. Im Rahmen des Projekts wird ein umfassender Datensatz mit über zehn unabhängigen saisonalen Vorhersagesystemen auf einer einzigen Plattform entwickelt. Ferner sollen Instrumente zur Online-Visualisierung ausgebaut werden, um die Anforderungen der Zielgruppen und die damit verbundenen Entscheidungsprobleme für eine Vielzahl von Beteiligten zu beschreiben. Die Erkenntnisse sollen letztlich die Qualität der Klimaprognosen optimieren, den Mehrwert von Klimaprognosen für die Entscheidungsfindung quantifizieren und dazu beitragen, saisonale Prognosen in die Entscheidungsprozesse der Industrie einzubinden.
Ziel
The central objective of SECLI-FIRM is to demonstrate how the use of improved climate forecasts, out to several months ahead, can add practical and economic value to decision-making processes and outcomes, primarily in the energy sector, but also in the water sector. Specifically for the energy sector, SECLI-CLIM will assess the impact on operational planning and portfolio management, such as hedging and asset optimization, thus enabling quantification of the value-add provided by seasonal forecasts which have been calibrated, evaluated and tailored for each specific application. Improvements in management decisions will ultimately lead to an improved supply-demand balance and therefore to a more efficient energy system, particularly with respect to renewable energy, with corresponding benefits for climate change mitigation.
A simple, but effective, methodology will be used to assess value added. A control case will only utilise climatological conditions based on historical averaged values – currently the most common approach – while a test case will also consider individually optimised and tailored state-of-the-art probabilistic seasonal forecasts. This will be done for nine case studies for Europe and South America: recent seasons with anomalous/extreme climate conditions leading to problematic and quantifiable impacts for the energy and/or water industry. Crucially for success, the case studies will be co-designed by industrial and research partners.
These case studies will provide the basis for developing pilot climate services for a number of specific applications, allowing evaluation of the added value of near real-time information for decision making. Thus SECLI-FIRM will promote research advances in the optimization of seasonal forecasts for specific applications (e.g. by evaluating both local processes and large-scale teleconnections), as well as promoting the uptake of seasonal forecasts by industry and hence expansion of the climate services market.
Wissenschaftliches Gebiet
- social sciencessociologygovernancecrisis management
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsrenewable energyhydroelectricity
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringnatural resources managementwater management
Schlüsselbegriffe
Programm/Programme
Aufforderung zur Vorschlagseinreichung
Andere Projekte für diesen Aufruf anzeigenUnterauftrag
H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB
Finanzierungsplan
RIA - Research and Innovation actionKoordinator
NR4 7TJ Norwich
Vereinigtes Königreich