Climate change-induced geohazards are increasing, endangering buildings and infrastructure investments. Damage from climate extremes to critical infrastructure in the transport, energy, industrial and social sector totals €3.4b/year in Europe, which could be six times this value by mid-century and more than 10 times this value by 2100. Moreover, the expected annual exposure to multiple hazards will increase much more sharply than for single hazards. A systems approach is needed to promote better-informed decision-making. This requires a strategy integrating land-use planning, national infrastructure priorities, building design, sustainable natural resource management and effective emergency planning. The aim of HERCULES is a step-change in our predictive capabilities and assessment of climate-induced geohazard risks and to use this understanding to help engineer and fund 21st-century resilient infrastructure. This will result in reduced damage to buildings and infrastructure and the associated disruption to economic activities, and most importantly reduced loss of life. Also, the research will produce a step-change in the way insurers operate in calculating risk: current calculation models assume that risks are incalculable. However, climate change-induced geohazards have a precise physical cause. The current inability to include physicomechanical principles in the calculation of risks has led the insurance industry to rely on black-box risk assessment models, which are uneconomical and do not properly reflect how risky a natural hazard is in comparison with other risks. This will lead to fairer insurance premiums and reduce the use of exclusion clauses, sub-limits, and coverage ceilings by insurers. Through the first 24 months, through staff exchange, knowledge sharing and training, HERCULES is moving towards a better understanding of the physicomechanical causes of climate-induced geohazards, which is pivotal to establishing causal links between hazards and potential losses.
