Periodic Reporting for period 1 - DUST.ES (Addressing key uncertainties in mineral DUST EmiSsion modelling to better constrain the global dust cycle)
Berichtszeitraum: 2018-11-01 bis 2020-10-31
Mineral soil dust created by the wind erosion of arid and semi-arid surfaces is the dominant contributor to the total aerosol mass in the atmosphere, significantly affecting radiative fluxes, cloud properties, atmospheric chemistry, and ocean biogeochemistry. While numerical models that predict the emission, transport, and deposition of dust have notably improved over the last decade, they still face numerous challenges. A central challenge is to constrain dust emission globally, a complex process that depends on the wind stress and the land-surface condition. The quantification of dust emission is highly interdisciplinary as it links meteorology, pedology, geomorphology, and geology.
Deficits of state-of-the-art global dust models include (1) an incomplete representation of the physics of dust emission, (2) a lack of skill to reproduce certain atmospheric processes that drive dust emission, and (3) a poor representation of small-scale dust sources and regions where anthropogenic changes in land use due to cultivation and grazing may have enhanced dust emission.
Apart from effects on climate, mineral dust aerosol also directly affects society in various ways. Dust events events can severely reduce air quality and can cause, for example, respiratory and cardiovascular deceases. It also reduces visibility and thereby affects road and air traffic. The renewable energy sector is also strongly affected by dust, because dust can be deposited on solar power plants reducing their efficiency, in particular in regions such as northern Africa, which have a large potential for solar power production. A better prediction of dust events will help to mitigate some of the aforementioned dust effects, in addition to help to better understand and estimate dust effects upon climate.
Our goal in this project was to redress model deficits related to the dust emission mechanism and meteorological dust injection processes, and hence to reduce uncertainty in modelled dust emission along with its attribution to natural and anthropogenic origin.
Deficits of state-of-the-art global dust models include (1) an incomplete representation of the physics of dust emission, (2) a lack of skill to reproduce certain atmospheric processes that drive dust emission, and (3) a poor representation of small-scale dust sources and regions where anthropogenic changes in land use due to cultivation and grazing may have enhanced dust emission.
Apart from effects on climate, mineral dust aerosol also directly affects society in various ways. Dust events events can severely reduce air quality and can cause, for example, respiratory and cardiovascular deceases. It also reduces visibility and thereby affects road and air traffic. The renewable energy sector is also strongly affected by dust, because dust can be deposited on solar power plants reducing their efficiency, in particular in regions such as northern Africa, which have a large potential for solar power production. A better prediction of dust events will help to mitigate some of the aforementioned dust effects, in addition to help to better understand and estimate dust effects upon climate.
Our goal in this project was to redress model deficits related to the dust emission mechanism and meteorological dust injection processes, and hence to reduce uncertainty in modelled dust emission along with its attribution to natural and anthropogenic origin.
The main work conducted in this project was the further development of the atmosphere-chemistry model MONARCH, extensive testing of model sensitivities in combination with advanced evaluation of the model results against satellite observations, the generation of a large set of global model simulations with variable underlying concepts of dust emission and roughness impacts, and the analysis of the simulation results.
MONARCH is now a versatile tool to investigate dust processes. We have used this tool to, for example, to investigate the importance of surface roughness due to non-erodible elements such as vegetation, pebbles and rocks upon dust activity over arid regions; and to better constrain dust emission from natural and anthropogenic sources. We have also conducted MONARCH simulations to contribute to advancing the quantification of the global dust cycle and the contributions of individual dust source regions; and to estimating the uncertainty if dust direct radiative effects related to dust mineral composition.
Our results are underway to be published in peer-reviewer scientific journals and have been presented at several scientific conferences.
MONARCH is now a versatile tool to investigate dust processes. We have used this tool to, for example, to investigate the importance of surface roughness due to non-erodible elements such as vegetation, pebbles and rocks upon dust activity over arid regions; and to better constrain dust emission from natural and anthropogenic sources. We have also conducted MONARCH simulations to contribute to advancing the quantification of the global dust cycle and the contributions of individual dust source regions; and to estimating the uncertainty if dust direct radiative effects related to dust mineral composition.
Our results are underway to be published in peer-reviewer scientific journals and have been presented at several scientific conferences.
The work conducted within this project has contributed to advancing the state-of-the-art with regard to dust process modeling, benchmarking the global dust budget, constraining the natural and anthropogenic dust fractions, and reducing uncertainty in dust-climate impacts. Further advancements, specifically with regard to the contribution of haboobs to the dust budgets, have been initiated and will be further pursued. Updates in MONARCH are going to be used in future dust forecasts produced by the Barcelona Dust Forecast Center (https://dust.aemet.es/(öffnet in neuem Fenster)) and used within the Northern Africa-Middle East-Europe (NA-ME-E) Regional Center of the World Meteorological Organization's Sand and Dust Storm Warning, Advisory, and Assessment System (SDS-WAS, https://sds-was.aemet.es/(öffnet in neuem Fenster)). This will allow different socio-economic sectors to take advantage of developments made within this project.