The correct evaluation of hazards related to the prediction of volcano eruptions is essential to an effective preparedness of populations threatened by volcanoes. Our ability to predict future volcano eruptions is related to locating the source(s) of volcanic unrest and assess their evolution. This is why a better, more comprehensive understanding of changes/deviations of the magmatic system from the background activity is needed for better hazard preparedness.
Recent advances in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), tilt, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) have greatly increased the availability of volcano deformation data. These measurements, combined with appropriate source models, can be used to estimate magma movement that precedes eruptions by detecting variations in the location, depth and volume of the magma intrusion. However, the models used to interpret the data are mostly based on oversimplified a-priori assumptions and there is a clear need for new physics-based models. Often, models of volcanic deformation that do not integrate different geodetic and geophysical datasets, lead to non-unique interpretations of the source of volcanic unrest because they are not sufficiently constrained. Studies that integrate independent datasets can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the deformation sources, while leading towards a more unique solution/interpretation.
PICVOLC project aims at combining many geophysical methodologies to reveal the internal structures of volcanoes, in particular of Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia), to support decisions to implement a monitoring network, and to identify possible sources of unrest signals that are detected at the surface.
By integrating geodetic and geophysical data as well as advanced Finite Element Method (FEM) numerical models into an inverse exploratory approach, PICVOLC aims at creating more accurate and constrained estimations of the active, inaccessible, and geometrically complex sources that could feed future eruptions. The aim is to provide a more robust estimation of deformation source parameters with reduced ambiguity. A less ambiguous interpretation of the nature, size, and shape of the source of unrest, brings strong benefits for society because it boosts our ability to interpret volcanic activity and to predict impending eruptions, possible volcanic hazards, and related risks for the population.
